Planning and climate change adaptation

1. School of the Built Environment Planning and climate changeadaptation Met Office & IAIA UK/Ireland Branch Climate change adaptation strategies and their incorporation in impact assessments Exeter, 8 October 2009 Elizabeth Wilson, Oxford Brookes University ebwilson@brookes.ac.uk

2. Key points • Climate change is changing spatial planning • Experience in UK and Ireland: - policy context changing - planning is addressing adaptation at national, regional and local levels - use of SA, SEA and EIA to address climate change in plans & projects • Possible approaches to ensure EA (anticipatory & preventive) addresses CC adaptation School of the Built Environment

3. Climate change • Climate change is happening and will increase (IPCC 4th Assessment; Stern Review; UKCIP09 projections; EEA) • Mitigation (reduction) and adaptation are essential • Mitigation and adaptation responses need co-ordinating, and will themselves have impacts • Therefore important role for planning and EA • Implications for all levels of assessment School of the Built Environment

4. National climate change policy: Ireland National CC Strategy 2007-12 National Adaptation Strategy due 2009 Impacts: • temperature increase esp summer/autumn; • increase winter rainfall; decrease summer esp S & E coasts • More frequent extreme events Key vulnerabilities: biodiversity, built environment, tourism, agriculture Integrate into spatial planning, building codes, water resource management School of the Built Environment

5. Climate change and planning horizons • Planning for sustainable development: obligations for current and future generations • Planning should be forward-looking: - life-time of developments: c.60 years - life-time of infrastructure: c.100 years (IME; CIRIA) - construction, operation & decommissioning phases BUT, • while planning horizons have been short… • Climate change is extending planning horizons • Planning needs to think strategically School of the Built Environment

6. Planning for climate change: Ireland • National Spatial Strategy 2002-2020 - Growth management - Gateways and hubs • National Development Plan 2007-2013 - no reference to adaptation School of the Built Environment

7. Planning for climate change: UK UK: • Planning Advice 2004 England: • Dec 2007 PPS 1 Supplement: Planning & Climate Change • 2009 Revision of PPS1 Supplement and PPS22 Renewable Energy Scotland: National Planning Framework 2 2009 Wales: Spatial Plan NI: 2009 Climate Change Spatial Planning Policy? (Friends of the Earth) School of the Built Environment

8. Principles for spatial planning for adaptation • Assess risk and uncertainty: - level of confidence in climate change scenarios - much of climate change to c 2040s is determined - recognise consequences even if probability unknown - undertake No Regrets and Low regrets actions • Distinguish - climate-influenced planning policies - climate adaptation policies - climate adaptation constraining policies • UKCIP: distinguish Building Adaptive Capacity from Adaptation Actions • Use socio-economic scenarios • Integrate climate change mitigation and adaptation School of the Built Environment

9. Substantive planning policy themes • Infrastructure • Flood risk • Coasts • Water resources • Biodiversity and landscape • Economic development & regeneration • Transport • Waste and material resources • Energy systems • Built environment and open spaces • Green and blue infrastructure • Food security • Health School of the Built Environment

10. National policy: Development and coastal changeCLG Consultation on new planning policy 2009 • PPG20 adopts strongly precautionary approach • Restricts any development in areas at risk of coastal erosion • Economic and social viability? • Therefore proposes strategic risk-based approach • Development in areas vulnerable to coastal change may be allowed… • …where life-time can be managed within time frame of coastal change School of the Built Environment

11. Adaptation in regional planning:a doomed success story? • Regional Spatial Strategies adopted 2008-09 • Considerable attention to climate change adaptation • Outcome of Regional Climate Change Partnerships? • or Sustainability Appraisal? But • RSSs to be replaced by new integrated Regional Strategies • Post 2010? School of the Built Environment

12. Adaptation in local planning policy • Local Development Frameworks • Eco-towns and urban extensions eg North West Bicester integrating adaptation and mitigation • Urban Villages eg Bilston Urban Village, West Midlands: used CC scenarios: - thermal comfort - flood-risk & drainage School of the Built Environment

13. Retro-fitting urban areas;and local community action plans • London Plan: - Urban heat island policies • Existing urban areas eg Soho • Community-level plans eg Transition Towns eg Low Carbon West Oxford: micro-hydro School of the Built Environment

14. Role for SEA, Sustainability Appraisal and EIA • Slow improvements in practice? esp water resource, coastal and some spatial plans • SA for new Regional Strategies: relevant policies include CC adaptation • EIA for Nationally Significant Infrastructure projects eg reservoirs, barrages, flood defences • Important role for Infrastructure Planning Commission? School of the Built Environment

15. Better EA practice to address CC adaptation • Assess - impact of climate change on plan/project - impact of plan/project on climate change • Steps in EA: scoping, baseline, options • Use future scenarios (CC and socio-economic) for resilience & robustness • Interactions and cumulative impacts • Consistency matrix for mitigation & adaptation • Use ecosystem approach eg river basins School of the Built Environment

16. Conclusions • Spatial planning is addressing adaptation • New policies and objectives • Role of SA, SEA and EIA: to move from laggard to leader School of the Built Environment