Session IX: Presentation

1. Session IX: Presentation • What is intelligence? • What is the purpose of intelligence services? • What are the activities of intelligence services? • What types of intelligence services exist? • How is intelligence produced? • How to establish control and oversight over intelligence services?

2. What is intelligence? = unbiased information relevant to a government‘s formulation and implementation of policy to further its national security interests and to deal with risks, dangers, and threats from actual or potential adversaries = to find out intentions, capabilities, plans for action of actual or potential opponents as well as their organization, resources, means, methods, communications and activities Potential or actual opponents do their best to keep this type of information secret, and to engage in disinformation, denial, deception, subversion and other clandestine activities

3. What is intelligence? Multitude of definitions http://intellit.muskingum.edu/whatis_folder/whatisintelintro.html In general usage, intelligence denotes 5 things: • A particular knowledge • The type of organization producing that knowledge • The activities pursued by such organizations • The process guiding these activities • The products resulting from these activities and processes

4. What is the purpose of intelligence? • Ensure early warning • Provide long-term expertise • Support the national decision- and policy-making process • Support national and international crisis management • Support national defense and, in case of conflict and war, military operations • Maintain and protect secrets

5. Raison d’être for intelligence … to find and interpret data and information concerning national security that the government needs, but cannot obtain from the media, other government entities or from commercial sources better, more safely, or more cheaply

6. The scope of intelligence Risks, dangers and threats: • External from hostile states and non-state actors • Internal against the ability to govern, the use of violence to change policies, or exclude from the body politic members of a given ethnical, racial, or religious group

7. The activities of intelligence • Collection Gathering of raw data and information through espionage, technical means, and exploitation of ‘open sources’ • Analysis and Synthesis Process to make judgments and estimates since collected information is fragmentary, ambiguous, and susceptible to divergent interpretations • Counterintelligence Protection of society and intelligence against harm that might be inflicted by hostile intelligence services, through defensive and offensive measures, counterespionage, and deception • Covert action To influence clandestinely events and developments abroad directly through deniable actions of persuasion, propaganda and paramilitary operations

8. Wisdom Knowledge effectively applied Leadership Decision making Decision aiding Application Process applying knowledge to effectively implement plan or action to achieve desired goal or end state Level of abstraction Information process flow Processes Inference (Induction, Deduction, Abduction) Reasoning Uncertainty management Knowledge Information understood and explained Understanding Process of comprehending static and dynamic relationship between sets of information and the process of synthesizing models to explain those relationships Alignment Correlation association Extrapolation Deconflicting Information Data placed in context indexed and organized Organization Process of aligning transforming, filtering, sorting, indexing and storing data elements in relational context for subsequent retrieval Preposessing Calibration Filtering Indexing Data Measurements and observations Observation Process of collecting and dispatching quantitative measurements to appropriate processing Sensing Collection Measurement Message sparsing Data acquisition Physical process

9. What types of intelligence services exist? • External or Foreign Intelligence Services • Internal or Domestic Intelligence Services, often also called Security Services • Military or Defense Intelligence Services • CriminalIntelligence Services • Special Branches for intelligence collection (for SIGINT e.g. the US NSA, the UK’s GCHQ, the Russian FAPSI, and for IMINT e.g. the US NGA and the NRO that operates satellites)

10. Intelligence organization • External or Foreign Intelligence Service producing intelligence relevant to external security and for warning – requires knowledge of the risks, dangers, threats, and opportunities, and about the likelihood of events and outcomes • Internal or Domestic Intelligence Service producing intelligence relevant to internal security: for the protection of the state, its constitutional order, the society, and the integrity of its territory, air- and sea-space from foreign influenced activities such as subversion, espionage, sabotage, and politically motivated violence

11. Intelligence organization Purposes and targets of foreign intelligence and domestic or security intelligence collection differ. So too do the nature and extent of the risks to which they give rise. It is important that the management, control and accountability arrangements reflect these differences. Because of the intrusive nature of the powers of internal intelligence services, and the fact that collection is executed domestically, potentially against the own citizens, domestic or security intelligence requires stricter controls to ensure that domestic security and safety are appropriately balanced against the rights of individual citizens and residents

12. Intelligence organization • Military or Defense Intelligence Services producing intelligence relevant for defense planning, the armed forces, and support to military operations • Criminal Intelligence Services produce intelligence on organized crime groups, corruption, and criminal activities with an aim to prosecution

13. Intelligence organization • Distinction between external and internal has never been absolute • Traditional limits between external, internal, and also criminal intelligence are becoming increasingly blurred, hence artificial and questionable, since there is convergence, notably in countering terrorism, organized crime, and proliferation • This is why smaller countries with fewer resources might prefer to have just 1 intelligence organization • This avoids wasting efforts, resources and time; solves the risk of unhealthy competition between the different agencies; simplifies contacts, intelligence exchange, and cooperation with foreign intelligence services; facilitates high subordination of intelligence in the state’s hierarchy and also coordination efforts and cooperation with other ministries and agencies; and alleviates control and oversight of intelligence • Among others, the Spanish CNI, the Dutch AIDV, the Turkish MIT, and OSA of Bosnia-Herzegovina are ‘fused’ intelligence agencies

14. Major categories of nation-state intelligence Focus Object of analysisReporting cycle Strategic and national intelligence(for national decision-makers & policymakers) Understanding of current and Foreign Policy Infrequent year/month future status + behavior of foreign Political posture long-term estimates & nations + non-state actors National stability projections months/years Socioeconomics Estimates of the state of global Cultural ideologies long-term analysis activities Foreign relations months/years Science & Technology Indications & Warnings of threats Intentions frequent status reports weekly/daily Military operational intelligence(for military leadership) Understanding of military Order of battle Continually updated powers, OB, future potential, Military doctrine status databases technological maturity Science & Technology I&W hours/days Command structure C4IRS + Force strength Crisis analysis Force status + intent daily/hourly Military tactical intelligence(for commanders and units) Real-time understanding of Military platforms Command & fire support military units, force structure + Force + operations Situational awareness current behavior in the field Courses of action Applications min/hours

15. Traditional and new intelligence Traditional FocusNew Focus A few large nation-state threats Many diverse and empowered non- state actor threats Threats caused by continuity of Threats resulting from discontinuities world affairs in world affairs Centralized intelligenceDistributed intelligence Focus on collection and secret Focus on analysis, collaboration, open sources and closed sources Targets are known, continuous, Targets unknown, discontinuous, and predictable unpredictable Intelligence management on tactical Intelligence management on strategic, operational, measurable objectives anticipatory, adaptive objectives Hierarchical analysis organization Networked analysis organization and and control collaboration Focus on intelligence as product Focus on intelligence as a service

16. Intelligence products Intelligence consumers The intelligence cycle Consumer requirements Finished Intelligence Dissemination Planning and direction Analysis-synthesis production Plans Processed information Raw Intelligence data Processing Collection

17. Planning and direction Involves management of entire intelligence effort, from identification of the need for data that is derived from threat assessment or the priority listing of yet unsolved strategy and policy issues, deciding which nations or groups abroad and at home warrant intelligence surveillance, to the final delivery of intelligence product to the customer Process initiated by requests or requirements for intelligence based on the ultimate needs of the customer – the President, Prime Minister, National Security Council, ministers or other government agencies Requests are parsed into information required, then to data that must be collected to estimate or infer required answers Data requirements are used to establish a plan of collection, which details elements of data needed and the targets − people, places, and things – from which data may be obtained

18. Collection • Establish collection plan • Tasking of human and technical sources of collection to collect required data and information • All collection disciplines should be engaged against the same target The sources and methods are among the most fragile – and most highly protected – elements of the process

19. Intelligence collection categories OSINT Open source intelligence HUMINT Human intelligence SIGINT Signals intelligence MASINT Measurements and signatures intelligence IMINT Imagery intelligence CNE Computer network exploitation

20. OSINT • Foreign radio and television news sources • Foreign printed materials: studies, books, magazines, periodicals, journals • Gray literature – printed and electronic • Openly available reports • Diplomatic + Attaché reporting • HF radio, telecom, Internet conversations • Foreign network computer sources • Reports and forecast from businessmen, travelers, universities, think tanks, etc

21. HUMINT • Reports from agents and spies abroad • Reports from residents of intelligence services • Debriefings of defectors, turn-coats, walk-ins • Interrogation of prisoners and criminals • Information gleaned from foreign residents • Discussions with personnel in foreign nations • Reports from counterintelligence operations • Messages from friendly third-party sources

22. SIGINT Data and information collection through intercepts of radio, radar, or other electronic emissions, including laser, visible light, and electro optics 5 subsets of SIGINT collection disciplines: COMINT communications traffic monitoring ELINT electromagnetic signals monitoring externals: events, activities, relationships, frequency of occurrence, modes, sequences, patterns, signatures internals: contents CRYPINT decryption of ciphered messages FISINT foreign instrumentation signals intelligence TELINT telemetry, beacons, video links, etc

23. MASINT Exploitation of: • physical properties: nuclear, biological, chemical, and materials composition • multi- and hyperspectral imagery data derived from analysis of emitted and reflected energy across the spectrum of light: radio frequencies, infrared, UV, lasers, electronic • mechanical sound, shock waves, acoustics • magnetic properties • vibration and motion

24. IMINT Imagery − also referred to as PHOTINT • Air and space imagery Satellite signals and data streams received and reconstructed as images from reflections of several bands across the spectrum of light – some visible, some invisible, like from IR or UV spectral analysis Photography, film, video and high-definition TV and other image-capturing technologies from aircraft and UAV Used for surveillance, monitoring, weather forecast to earth mapping • Terrestrial and video imagery

25. CNE Computer network exploitation • Network analysis and monitoring • Message interception • Traffic analysis • Computer intrusion • Penetration • Exploitation of data-banks

26. Processing Conversion of vast amount of data collected to a more suitable form for production – machine and foreign language translation, decryption, rendering texts or pictures readable, etc Indexing and sorting of data by subject matter and data reduction – interpretation of information stored on film and tape through highly refined photographic and electronic processes − and organizing of data in an information base, making it available for rapid computer retrieval Progress on meeting the requirements of the collection plan is monitored and tasking may be refined on the basis of received data

27. Analysis and Synthesis Intelligence = Knowledge of the hidden + foreknowledge of the unpredictable • The prelude to decision and action by national decision-makers, policymakers, military leadership • Knowledge that helps consumers and clients to consider alternative options and outcomes • Process of collection of facts, their analysis, quick and clear evaluations, production of assessments and warnings, and timely dissemination to consumers • Analytical process that must be rigorous, timely, and relevant to policy needs and concerns

28. Analysis and Synthesis Vast majority of collected information is fragmentary, ambiguous, and susceptible to widely divergent interpretation Thus, process of collation, analysis and evaluation of all available raw and «all-source» information and its transformation into intelligence is vital to make judgments about intentions, capabilities and actions of opponents Best performed close to users of product

29. Dissemination Finished Intelligence disseminated to consumers in a variety of forms – reports to oral briefings − and formats: from dynamic operating pictures to formal reports to policymakers 3 categories distinguished by past, present, and future focus: Current intelligence: news-like reports describing recent events or Indications & Warnings Basic intelligence: complete description of a specific situation (Order-of-Battle, political situation, etc) Intelligence estimates: predicting feasible future outcomes as result of current situation, constraints, and possible influences

30. 2 phases mostly overlooked in the process Consumption & feedback How, and in which form, policymakers consume intelligence and the degree to which intelligence is used are important issues Relationship with decision-makers should be an active and not a passive one = dialogue between consumer and producer However, objectivity demands a certain distance and a willingness to consider all variables – not just the ones the analyst or his customer has deemed most important in the past Customers should give producers some sense of how well their requirements are being met and discuss any adjustments that need to be made to any parts of the process

31. Core mission of products • Support of security policy and foreign policy • Detection of activities that threaten security and national interests • Ascertain superiority in information warfare • Support to defense & homeland defense planning • Support for military operations • Provide intelligence on economic matters that could affect national interests and trade negotiations • Support to monitoring of treaties, other agreements, embargoes, etc

32. Intelligence products • Warnings and warning reports • Current situation reports • Analyses • Briefings • Assessments • Estimates • Research – in-depth study of an issue = tailored output that meets the specific user needs, is accurate, timely, and persuades through analytic tradecraft

33. Products of internal intelligence • Espionage • Sabotage and subversion • Terrorism • Political, ethnic, and religious extremism • Organized crime • Corruption • Narcotics production and trafficking • Money faking and money laundering • Proliferation • Illegal arms dealing and smuggling • Illegal immigration • Electronic attacks, hacking & child-pornography

34. Products should contain: • What is known – the facts • How it is known – the sources where possible • What drives judgment – linchpin assumptions • The impact if the drivers change – alternative outcomes • And what remains unknown Overarching goal: to minimize the uncertainty with which policymakers must grapple in making decisions about national security and foreign policy Must help to make sense of complex issues and to call attention to emerging problems or threats Important: not only determine what is accurate, but also what is relevant to the policymaker’s needs and aspirations

35. Accountability The obligation to demonstrate, and be responsible for, performance in the light of agreed expectations Prerequisites: Clear and agreed roles and responsibilities Clear and agreed expectations of what is to be done and how, what is not to be done, and what is to be achieved Performance expectations that are balanced by the relevant capacities of each party Timely and credible reporting of performance achieved in the light of expectations Review and feedback on the performance reported, such that achievements are recognized and necessary corrections made

36. Control and Supervision of Intelligence Services Regardless of the particular form of control adopted in democracies, most relevant democratic control of intelligence services and their activities is exercised by executive, legislative and judicial entities Every element plays its specific role within the whole package of control, accountability and oversight The purpose is to provide assurance of legality,proportionality and proprietyfor activities that are necessarily conducted in secret

37. Democratic control of intelligence Executive control Legislative oversight Judicial control and supervision Informal and indirect supervision by the public

38. 5 basic principles for intelligence services • Provide effective intelligence essential to the security of the nation • Have an adequate legal framework • Have an effective management system • Be effectively accountable • Be open to internal and external review and to parliamentary oversight

39. Executive control and supervision Executive control= the decisive role The higher the echelon of executive control and supervision, and the greater the seriousness with which it executes its task, the lesser the likelihood of problems accruing to the government from judicial supervision and legislative oversight It is the executive which is fully responsible for the proper controls and auditing of intelligence services, thus creating the necessary base for transparency and parliamentary oversight

40. Executive control and supervision • Controlin the narrowest sense: ensuring that specific procedures are followed • Controlin the broadest sense: creating the conditions that lead to the achievement of agreed standards of performance as well as compliance with law and policy • Control may be exercised by both formaland informalmeans • Formalmeans: to ensure conformity of activities with policy and procedures, proper authorizations, funding, audit, and review • Informalmeans: focus on ethics, values, and leadership

41. Executive control and supervision • Policymaker direction = both the foundation and the catalyst for the work of intelligence • If intelligence does not receive direction, the chances of resources being misdirected and wasted increase • Intelligence services need to know what information to collect and when it is needed • They need to know if their products are useful and how they may be improved to better serve policymakers

42. Executive control and supervision Main tasks of executive control: • Make sure that intelligence functions properly • That intelligence ask the right questions • Collect the right information • Respond to decisionmaker’s needs • Are rigorous in analysis • Have on hand the right capabilities

43. Executive control and supervision Of particular importance for executive control is: • To identify intelligence failures • To take action to prevent them from occurring in the future

44. Executive control and supervision The misuse of intelligence services by government for its own political ends must be excluded. To this end: • intelligence services should be at arms length from policymakers • should not be affiliated with any party • must be neutral or depoliticized

45. Control, supervision, and oversight of intelligence services Internal & external control and supervision can take any number of forms • Inspector Generals • Staff capacity of Minister • Separate Committees for Intelligence Supervision and for Intelligence Policy Review • Audit • Ombudsman

46. An external audit serves 3 purposes: • To assess compliance with the law, ensuring that those given executive authority exercise this authority with their assigned responsibilities: to review behavior, identify poor administration, and who should be held accountable • To assess performance in public management in order to contribute to organizational learning • Compliance auditing: scrutinizing accounts to see if money has been spent as allocated, and to assess the efficiency and effectiveness of financial allocations

47. Ombudsman • Can be given powers to investigate alleged violation of human rights by intelligence services • Negotiate with civil servants • Report to legislature and make proposals • Inform the public about the results of inquiries

48. Legislative oversight Parliamentary Oversight • Preferably Special or Select Committees of legislators, including opposition, who pass background security check, take secrecy oath, and are neither associated with the services nor with those to whom the services report • Must have power and will to deter violations of law or failure of performance • Should have adequately trained staff

49. Legislative oversight In all aspects of governance and expenditure of public money, Parliaments have an essential role in monitoring and scrutinizing policy and budgets The budget represents the culmination of intelligence requirements and, at the same time, the contribution required from the taxpayer – the electorate at large to whom the parliamentarians are most directly responsible

50. Legislative oversight The further role of Parliament: • Oversight • Giving a second opinion • Ensuring transparency • Providing a link between intelligence and security services and the public at large