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SBU/BNL Climate Modeling: Grand Challenges to the BG Minghua Zhang

Zhang Marat K. Lin. Vogelmann Miller Jensen Wagener. Colle. Chang. Liu Daum Guo. NY Blue Center. Riemer. McGraw Schwartz Lewis Chang. Wang. Reisman Bhatt. SBU/BNL Climate Modeling: Grand Challenges to the BG Minghua Zhang With contributions from the BNL/SBU Team.

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SBU/BNL Climate Modeling: Grand Challenges to the BG Minghua Zhang

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  1. Zhang Marat K. Lin Vogelmann Miller Jensen Wagener Colle Chang Liu Daum Guo NY Blue Center Riemer McGraw Schwartz Lewis Chang Wang Reisman Bhatt SBU/BNL Climate Modeling: Grand Challenges to the BG Minghua Zhang With contributions from the BNL/SBU Team

  2. (Arguez 2007, “State of the climate in 2006”)

  3. IPCC 2007 Executive Summary:

  4. Climate Modeling

  5. Schematic

  6. Regional Climate Changes Are Largely Unknown The SBU/BNL Climate Grand Challenges: 1. What will happen regionally? • Modeling • Mechanisms • Impact • 2. How to make the models better? • Processes • Data Infusion

  7. Atmospheric Modeling Background 1950s - : Beginning (Charney and von Neumann) “To von Neumann, meteorology stood the most to gain from high speed computation” 1960-1990s: Expansion Phase 1990- Consolidation and Application

  8. Climate modeling infrastructure in the US CCSM Universities DOE Labs Private Industries Other Governmental Labs NASA: GSFC & GISS NOAA: GFDL & NCEP NAVY: ONR CMMAP- CSU NSF STC Abroad: UKMO, MPI, LMD, Japan, CCC, IAP…

  9. The CCSM Infrastructure (http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu) Models Organized and Managed by Working Groups (NCAR, Univ., Industries) Atmosphere Ocean Land Sea Ice Chemistry Coupler CCSM Organized by Steering Committee and WG co-Chairs

  10. Computational Resource Allocations: Climate Simulation Laboratory (CSL) Multi-agency computing facility for the Global Change Science Program of the United States

  11. The Dilemma • Funding mechanism is not conducive to exploit new computing capability • Synergy of climate science & computational science has been difficult • This is also true for the Earth Simulator

  12. Proposal from the CCSM Atmospheric WG to CSL for 2007

  13. The SBU/BNL Uniqueness: Bring climate scientists directly to the front of the NY Blue (Need IBM Help) Attack very specific problems in areas of existing strength Have clearly defined goals and results to deliver

  14. Zhang Marat K. Lin Vogelmann Miller Jensen Wagener Colle Chang Liu Daum Guo NY Blue Center Riemer McGraw Schwartz Lewis Chang Wang Reisman Bhatt The Team Blue = BNLRed = SBU

  15. The Three Themes: Regional Climate Change and Energy Modeling Outstanding Scientific Problems Infusion of Data into Models

  16. Regional Climate Change and Energy Modeling

  17. Regional Climate Change and Energy Modeling • MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation), an integrated energy, environment and economic model, examines market potential for energy technologies over a short-, medium- and long-term horizon under alternative policy scenarios within the entire energy system. • Developed at BNL in 1970s, continuously updated/validated by the user communityand used by more than 100 institutions in 55 countries Global warming mitigation strategies with regional climate change as input

  18. Outstanding Problems

  19. Infusion of Data Into Models BNL Unique Strength in Radar and Satellite Measurements

  20. The SBU/BNL Uniqueness: Bring climate scientists directly to the front of the NY Blue (Need IBM Help) Attack very specific problems in areas of existing strength Have clearly defined goals and results to deliver

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