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2011 Fire Season Outlook: An initial look at Weather/Climate/Fuels

2011 Fire Season Outlook: An initial look at Weather/Climate/Fuels . Rich Naden/Chuck Maxwell Southwest Area Predictive Services. Key Drivers to 2011 Winter Weather / Climate. Negative AO (Arctic Oscillation) Strong La Nina ! Negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) Low Solar Activity

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2011 Fire Season Outlook: An initial look at Weather/Climate/Fuels

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  1. 2011 Fire Season Outlook: An initial look at Weather/Climate/Fuels Rich Naden/Chuck Maxwell Southwest Area Predictive Services

  2. Key Drivers to 2011 Winter Weather / Climate • Negative AO (Arctic Oscillation) • Strong La Nina! • Negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) • Low Solar Activity • Negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) OK….so what does this climate index alphabet soup mean for the Southwest Area Climate expectations and Fire Season 2011 ????

  3. Weekly Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Past 20 Weeks Blue – Below Average Sea Surface Temperatures Yellow/Orange – Above Average Sea Surface Temperatures

  4. La Niña General Impacts JFM Precip & Temp Anomalies for Mod.-Strong La Niña

  5. However…this has been an atypical La Nina winter weather pattern so far….but WHY?!?! - AO and Low Solar Output appear to be presently dominating the pattern January February

  6. So how has this affected High Temperatures?? Past 14 Days Past 30 Days Past 7 Days 2011 so far…

  7. Precipitation?? Past 30 Days Past 14 Days Past 7 Days 2011 so far…

  8. Drought Situation?? Past 9 months Past 6 months Past month Past 3 months

  9. Drought Situation??

  10. SNOTEL - River Basin Snow Water Content

  11. July 15th 2010 Fuels Considerations • Lots of fine herbaceous fuels, limited compaction • Usual strain of dry/drought conditions on live and dead fuel moisture dynamics September 14th 2010

  12. Upcoming Weather Pattern/Climate Anomalies Forecast – rest of JAN • Warmer than normal western ½ to 1/3 of Arizona • Cooler than normal southeastern 1/3 of New Mexico • Drier than normal northwestern ½ of Arizona • Best chance of moisture across the eastern ½ of New Mexico into west Texas Temperatures Precipitation

  13. Upcoming Weather Pattern/Climate Anomalies Forecast – FEB < TEMP > Likely to start February Most of the remainder of February < PRECIP >

  14. Upcoming Weather Pattern/Climate Anomalies Forecast – MAR Strong La Nina 500MB Height Anomalies

  15. Upcoming Weather Pattern/Climate Anomalies Forecast – MAR < TEMP < PRECIP

  16. Upcoming Weather Pattern/Climate Anomalies Forecast – APR-MAY Strong La Nina 500MB Height Anomalies Moderate La Nina 500MB Height Anomalies

  17. Upcoming Weather Pattern/Climate Anomalies Forecast – APR-MAY Moderate La Nina Surface Temp. Anomalies Strong La Nina Surface Temp. Anomalies < TEMP > Moderate La Nina Surface Precip. Anomalies Strong La Nina Surface Precip. Anomalies < PRECIP >

  18. Upcoming Weather Pattern/Climate Anomalies Forecast – JUL-SEP Strong and Moderate La Nina’s Decent Monsoonal Moisture More than Likely!!?? Moderate La Nina’s

  19. Forecast Points for Fire Weather • Despite an overall drier weather pattern region-wide expect the focus to remain across the southeastern ½ of New Mexico into west Texas • Coolish pattern across the Intermountain West could develop and remain in charge by March/April-May across the northwestern ½ or so of AZ likely leading to a slow start to Fire Season 2011 for western sections • Areas further south/east likely warmer and will eventually be the recipients of more frequent wind combined with the milder temperatures • Higher elevations have had some decent snowfall over the past month or so providing some compaction of fuels • Potential remains elevated for an active late winter>early summer fire season…especially southern & eastern halves of SWA

  20. THE END Questions?

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