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Challenge Horizons for Canadian RD and Federal ST Foresight

What is Foresight?. A set of strategic tools for anticipating the future, to become more prepared for diverse challenges with adequate lead time Anticipates multiple, plausible futures5

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Challenge Horizons for Canadian RD and Federal ST Foresight

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    1. Challenge Horizons for Canadian R&D and Federal S&T Foresight

    2. What is Foresight? A set of strategic tools for anticipating the future, to become more prepared for diverse challenges with adequate lead time Anticipates multiple, plausible futures 5 – 25 year time horizon A rehearsal for potential futures Accommodates uncertainty & diversity Highlights emerging opportunities & threats Highlight differences between Foresight and forecast Focus on multiple futures AVOID using the terms SCENARIO and DRIVER at this stageHighlight differences between Foresight and forecast Focus on multiple futures AVOID using the terms SCENARIO and DRIVER at this stage

    3. Technology Review’s 2005 List Airborne Networks Quantum Wires Silicon Photonics Metabolomics Magnetic Resonance Force Microscopy Universal Memory Bacterial Factories Enviromatics Cell-Phone Viruses Biomechatronics

    4. Brockman’s List : The Next 50 Years Cybersphere: information beams, portable tele-connection & ubiquitous smart networks; Bio-engineering & bio-robotics, astro-biology, personal genomics & embryo simulation, artificial life models; Quantum math & computing, teleportation, computational and emergent complexity; Search for ETI and biophilic universes; Neuro-sentience & convergent cognition, computational pharmacology,neuro-regeneration Sub-terranean thermophilogy & Triphibious flexible transport Nano-structural products, sensors, materials, fabrication and molecular tailoring

    5. Business 2.0 List Bio-interactive Materials - small sensing devices reside on or inside people, animals, and crops Bio-fuel Production Plants - ethanol, methanol, bio-diesel, eliminating dependence on foreign oil Bionics - the next-generation of sophisticated prosthetic limbs or even artificial organs Cognitronics - to link the brain directly to computers Genotyping - making the connection between DNA and specific physical attributes; i.e. longevity, disease. Combinatorial Science - algorithms and computing to develop hypotheses by observing large amounts of data. Molecular Manufacturing - the building of complex atomic structures one atom at a time Quantum Nucleonics - tapping the energy of the atom for energy

    6. Fraunhofer-Germany List Smart Environments – micro components, smart sensors, cyber bots; Man-Machine Cooperation – intuitive brain-computer links; Polytronics – plastics in displays, energy systems and virtual environments; Digital Medicine - imaging, simulations, medications via genomics, proteomics; Digital Logistics - automated commerce - transactions, storages, fleets; Integrated Production – digital mass customized and virtual, flexible products; Adaptive Structures – piezo-ceramics to dampen vibration, noise, save energy; Photonics Enablers- universal light controls: medicine, electronics, materials; Nano-Ultra-Violet – extreme ultaviolet nano-processing radiation applications; Simulation and Modelling - of everything – quantum & grid computing power; Customized Energy – distributed, portable networks, less central power.

    7. Becoming Knowledge Based Speed, intangible assets and connectivity become your sources of value Increasing returns to scale from (intangible) products Products, services stay competitive by becoming smarter - “What do the vending machine, chairs, switches want to know?” When products, services become mass customized, interactive, remembering customers When relationships with customers start before the product arrives; remain after purchase When production processes have embedded in them the collective memory, intellect of the organization

    8. Macro Shaping Trends Integration, Miniaturization of Technology Globalization of Capital, Terror , Disease Anti-globalization of Biodiversity, Culture, Sustainability De-Carbonization of Energy Economy Harmonization and Standardization for Trade Migration, Multi-Culturalism of Populations Intensification, Differentiation, of Wealth Bi-polarization of Religious Values and Secular Evolution Transformation, Integration of Infrastructure Systems Virtualization, Digitization of Communications, Entertainment, Education Automation, and Customization of Production Acceleration of Knowledge Services as Economic Driver Proliferation of Surveillance - Security

    9. Disruptive, Enabling S&T Nanotechnology Devices Customized Materials: auto design, modelling engineered Quantum Computing :models that reach beyond Moore`s Semantic Internet (data rich & self navigable) Cyber Agents - sensors for networked intelligence Autonomic Software :self repair code generation Stand Alone Power : portable, sustainable energy systems :for sensors Nanorobotics – Smart Dust, linked in colonies Smart Organics :that upgrade life forms intelligence Visualization, Human-Machine Interfaces linking brain and machine

    10. Glimpses of the Nanocosm* Targeted delivery of nano-scale pharmaceuticals; Nanoparticles for cancer treatment; Smart bio-nano materials and implants; Nanosensor determined synthetic environments; Nanosistors – wavicles: logic gates for molecular DNA based computing; Impermeable, anti corrosive nano composite coatings Wearable polymer nano-electronics for portable, personal bio-cogno self monitoring and computing * Nanocosm by William Illsey Atkinson, Penguin Books Canada 2003

    11. Converging Technologies Example of a Domain Matrix ExampleExample

    12. CT Tools: Example of a Table of +/- impacts on Prospective Domains of Application ExamplesExamples

    13. Influential Domains Canadian Water and Food Horizons 2020: stewardship, eco innovation and transformative technologies Computational Materials : computer formulated, simulated, emergent and advanced new materials Sleep, Time and Attention: neuro-science frontiers and virtual,augmented relaity Synthetic Biology: vistas of artificial life possibilities and “unreal” horizons Personal Genomics: health, security, socio-economics –who are we in societal context?

    14. Also Being Contemplated Systems on a Chip: distributed computing and auto genetic system capabilities; Plastic Signalers –Polytronics: new materials and systemic triggers Sentient Systems: smart-net-ness in the ubiquitous inanimate environment; Emergent Networks: from math to reality to network effects impacts Visual Analytics, Avatars & Bot-Agents: glimpses into the future cyber-sim reality Demographics , Technology and Culture: The new Canadian mosaic – technology generation & use scenarios 2050

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