Estimated patterns of trade in services flows between OECD countries and rest of the world

1. Estimated patterns of trade in services flows between OECD countries and rest of the world Agenda Item 12.1 Fabiana Cerasa - OECD Statistics Directorate Antonella Liberatore - WTO 4rd WPTGS meeting 7-9 November 2011, OECD

2. OECD - WTO joint project • Worldwide bilateral trade in services flows matrix already presented at WPTGS 2010 • Interest was expressed by delegates in accessing not only the aggregate table but also the more detailed background data that was used to compile the matrix • The work presented here responds to this request: • it constitutes a cooperative effort by OECD and WTO, and the result of a very good cooperation between the 2 IOs who shared the preliminary data aggregation according to their membership. This resulted in an equal distribution of the work involved as bilateral trade in services is more widely available for OECD countries. • As requested, the more disaggregated version of the table is made available in Annex 1 of the paper. 4rd WPTGS meeting 7-9 November 2011, OECD

3. Estimated patterns of TIS flows 4rd WPTGS meeting 7-9 November 2011, OECD

4. Steps to fill the matrix 4rd WPTGS meeting 7-9 November 2011, OECD

5. 1st and 2nd steps 4rd WPTGS meeting 7-9 November 2011, OECD

6. 3rd and 4th steps 4rd WPTGS meeting 7-9 November 2011, OECD

7. Guesstimates For example, after having exploited every potential information provided by mirror statistics: • half of the unallocated export from Africa have been allocated to Gulf Arabia with the other half going to Africa. • the unallocated Middle East exports have been equally divided between Africa and the Middle East 4rd WPTGS meeting 7-9 November 2011, OECD

8. Final steps • After completion, the line totals have been scaled up to: • the total exports available in OECD International trade in services by category of services (TIS dataset) for the top side of the matrix that corresponds to OECD exporting countries • the IMF BOP totals for the bottom side that corresponds to non-OECD exporting countries • Finally, in the standard table presentation, the five continents shown (Africa, America, Asia and Oceania and Europe) have been created reallocating OECD and non-OECD country data 4rd WPTGS meeting 7-9 November 2011, OECD

9. Final results OECD countries accounted for 73.9% of world service exports OECD Asia and Oceania trades mainly with Asia and Oceania (3.8%) and America (2.3%). 4.7% of world services exports exported by OECD Asia and Oceania to OECD countries, with the largest share (2.2%) to NAFTA 3.1% of world services exports to Africa, while 1.4% exported by Africa to Europe 65.4% of OECD Europe’s exports destined for other OECD Europe countries intra-OECD exports accounted for 77.5% of total OECD exports …while an estimated 53.1% of OECD exports goes to OECD Europe countries Most of exports from America (78.7%) are directed to OECD area, in particular to European countries (49.2% of total exports to OECD)

10. Conclusion and next steps • OECD and WTO propose to continue working jointly on this project, expanding this work to: • include other groups of countries which may be relevant for policy analysis (ex: developedand developing countries) • estimate the matrix at the level of transports, traveland other services(and separately identify government goods and services n.i.e.to estimate world flow matrix of total commercial services and other commercial services) • Great potential to contribute to the trade in value added project 4rd WPTGS meeting 7-9 November 2011, OECD

11. Questions to WPTGS delegates: • Are you aware of any other possible database from which bilateral data can be sourced? • Have you noticed any anomaly or inconsistency in the data of your country we used to build the whole matrix? • Any suggestions to improve the methodology? 4rd WPTGS meeting 7-9 November 2011, OECD