Climate Futures for Tasmania

1. Climate Futures for Tasmania Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaptation Options Tas Sustainable Yields – 24 July 08 Nathan Bindoff Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre

2. Our Starting Point • Climate change exists. • Greenhouse gas emissions a key driver. • Changes will have impacts. • Impacts are felt locally.

3. The Project ACE CRC in consultation with others Externally funded, consortium of funders 3-year project Multiple climate projections to 2100, multiple models, multiple runs Build on earlier work- Hydro Tasmania Use CCAM with improvements Great Lake Trevallyn Dam

4. Special Elements Highly collaborative project Diverse focus – 4 areas of research Strong communication and consultation element Focus on stakeholders and end users needs Modelling outputs freely available to everybody

5. Project Partners

6. Key Issues for End Users • Water policy and legislation • Water management and infrastructure • Power Generation (reservoirs, winds) • Power Distribution (heat waves) • Emergency planning (bushfires, floods) • Protection of high value assets (tourism) • Impacts on power and water dependent industry • Agriculture (crops, wine, other horticulture, disease) • Sea level surges (from wind changes)

7. General Climate Impacts Fine Scale Climate Projections Water & Catchments Extreme Events Research Components

8. Project Resources • $7.5 million over three years (cash + in-kind) • 5 new postdoctoral fellows, 1 liaison officer & project management team • Engagement of skills and expertise from the consortia members, including Tasmanian State Departments and business enterprises • Data Management (TPAC Digital Library) • Strong links with other projects • CERF funded projects • SEACI • Tasmanian Sustainable Yields Project (TasSY)

9. Project Outcomes • Information for adaptation. • All modelling data and materials made publicly available. • Industries, government and community informed on likely future climate. • Capacity to plan appropriate, targeted, efficient adaptation strategies. • Understanding key risks and vulnerabilities. • Capacity to take maximum advantage of likely changes in climate.

10. Component Leaders Modelling • Tony Hirst (CSIRO) • Nathan Bindoff (TPAC) Water and Catchments • Bryce Graham (DPIW) • Fiona Ling (Hydro Tasmania) General Climate Impacts • David McNeill & Stephen Wilson (TIAR) • Ian Barnes-Keoghan (BoM) Extreme Events • Bob Cechet (GA) • Kathy McInnes (CSIRO)

11. Funding Partners Funding Partners

12. Research Organisations Research Organisations

13. Funders (Funding Contracts) ACE CRC Board Dr Katherine Woodthorpe (Chair) CERF -Commonwealth Environment Research Facilities (DEWH&A) DPIW – Michele Moseley Dept Primary Industries and Water Bruce Mapstone ACE CRC CEO Hydro Tasmania– Andrew Catchpole Hydro Tasmania SES – Chris Beattie CLIMATE FUTURES Project Leader: Prof Nathan Bindoff Project Manager: Christie le Goy Liaison & Extension: Suzie Gaynor ACE CRC Partners’ Committee Chair: Nathan Bindoff Hobart Water Research Organisations (In-kind) Esk Water Cradle Coast Water ACE CRC Dr Kathy McInnes CSIRO CMAR Dr Tony Hirst Landscape Logic Utas TPAC – Prof Nathan Bindoff Utas TIAR Dr Stephen Wilson Prof David McNeil Tasmania Farmers & Graziers Association General Climate Impacts DPIW – Bryce Graham BoM– Ian Barnes- Keoghan Wine Industry Tasmania Hydro Tasmania– Kane Thornton Geoscience Australia Dr Bob Cechet Fruit Growers Tasmania Project Reference Group End-User Representatives “Virtual Network” Dept Primary Industries & Water (DPIW) End User Stakeholder Groups/End User Focus Groups Determining User Needs and Road Testing end user products Other research components Water and Catchments LGAT SES Extreme Events Advisory Committee Chair: Bruce Mapstone Fine Scale Climate Projections Aurora Energy Transend Roaring 40s Dept Infrastructure, Energy & Resources (DIER) Putting it all together

14. Climate Futures for Tasmania Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaptation Options Thank you Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre

15. Full-time ACE CRC Staff General Climate Impacts Analysts • Greg Holz (agriculture) • Michael Grose Extreme Events Analyst • Chris White Modelling Analyst • to be appointed Water and Catchments Analyst • to be appointed Extension and Liaison • Suzie Gaynor

16. Project Management Governance • ACE CRC CEO – Bruce Mapstone • ACE CRC Business Manager – Kate Maloney Management • Project Leader - Professor Nathan Bindoff • Project Management - Christie le Goy

17. Modelling Concepts • Global Climate Models - windows into future(s) • GCMs are coarse scale • Community impacts often fine scale • CSIRO developed fine-scale method • This project provides fine scale information for Tasmania.

18. Fine Scale Climate Projections • What is downscaling? • CCAM – Cubic Conformal Atmosphere Model • Validation phase • IPCC – models are used • Interpolation of pre-existing IPCC scenarios

21. Overlap with TasSY • One scenario (of A2,A1B,B1), 6 models (three in first year), to 1960 to 2100, progressive to 2100. (Hydro project) • Questions • Which scenario for TasSY (A2, A1B, B1)? • To 2030, or 2035? • Is 60km resolution sufficient for TasSY? • Time evolving? • How many models?

22. Compute resources • Required resources (45days*24 cpu per 15km experiment, ~60 days*8cpu per 60km experiment) • TPAC provides 128 processors, Disk 40 Terrabytes, Tape Silo (100Terrabytes) capacity ~50% • Quote • 112 compute nodes, two tape drives, 100 Terrayte store, $125k • 112 compute nodes, two tape drives, $100k • Three weeks for delivery after receipt of purchase order • APAC, expansion will occur in November, “couldn’t purchase hours at the moment even if we could pay”

23. How to get alignment