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Ocean - Proshutinsky/Haidvogel (CG Left Bay)

Ocean - Proshutinsky/Haidvogel (CG Left Bay). What science questions exist for the arctic that are best answered with coupled regional models?. process studies (see next slide; also polyna studies)

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Ocean - Proshutinsky/Haidvogel (CG Left Bay)

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  1. Ocean - Proshutinsky/Haidvogel (CG Left Bay) • What science questions exist for the arctic that are best answered with coupled regional models? • process studies (see next slide; also polyna studies) • reconstruction studies based upon control scenarios (e.g., ensemble of runs with a range of AO forcing, …) • sensitivity studies (e.g., ecosystem response to melting ice, …) • coupled response studies (e.g., coastal erosion, …) • observational design studies (AON) • model improvement studies

  2. Process studies: ocean/ice

  3. Atmosphere Process studies: atmosphere

  4. AOMIP/OCEAN/ICE Model improvements

  5. Atmosphere Model improvements

  6. Concerns • There are not enough observational data for model initialization, forcing, validation and assimilation. • A comprehensive AON is urgently needed to satisfy needs of both observational and modeling communities • ice coverage / thickness (satellites) • monitor strategic locations • profilers • bathymetry (IBCAO)

  7. Ocean What are the existing modeling and model validation efforts aimed towards answering these questions? • MIPs: SIMIP,ARCMIP, AOMIP (proposed), CARCMIP (status?), Southern Ocean MIP (?) • Global and regional models (independent validation efforts)

  8. Challenges The major challenge of the MIPs is to improve existing regional Arctic atmosphere, ice, ocean and terrestrial models and, respectively, global climate models: • This work is expensive and requires significant financial and labor resources. • In order to develop a comprehensive arctic model it is necessary to involve the entire community of arctic researches including modelers and observers, scientists and engineers from different disciplines.

  9. Ocean • What model and model validation projects are on the horizon aimed towards answering these questions? • AOMIP proposal was submitted in November 2007 • OCMIP 3 • EcoMIP (US GLOBEC interested) • DARWIN (self-organizing approach vs IBMs)

  10. Table 1 AOMIP Project participants.

  11. Ocean • What arctic science questions cannot be answered with limited area regional coupled arctic models? • any question where dynamic coupling between the global and regional models is strong

  12. Ocean • What science questions are missing from existing efforts? • mass balance questions (e.g., what are land ice sheets doing? How is mass being rearranged in the ocean?) • fate of fresh water inputs from (e.g.) Greenland. • sea ice at high resolution (interactions with – e.g. – tides, mesoscale eddies, submesoscale, …) • transmission/fate of eddy signals across non-uniform grids

  13. Ocean • What human systems are relevant to the physical systems being addressed?  Are there existing models for these human systems? • What are human systems? • ecosystems/fisheries • navigation • energy exploration • coastal erosion • national security

  14. Ocean • What are reasonable boundaries on the ‘Arctic System’ for your area of research? • down to 58N, including: Bering Sea, Norwegian Sea, Barents Sea, Baffin Bay, etc. Sea of Okhotsk (?)

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