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Riding the Next Energy System Transformation: Opportunities for Alberta in a Clean-tech World

Riding the Next Energy System Transformation: Opportunities for Alberta in a Clean-tech World. David Layzell, Ph.D., FRSC, Professor & Executive Director, Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment & Economy (ISEEE), University of Calgary, AB.

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Riding the Next Energy System Transformation: Opportunities for Alberta in a Clean-tech World

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  1. Riding the Next Energy System Transformation: Opportunities for Alberta in a Clean-tech World David Layzell, Ph.D., FRSC,Professor & Executive Director, Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment & Economy (ISEEE), University of Calgary, AB. Economic Developers Alberta (EDA) Conference Kananaskis, Alberta – April 6, 2011

  2. Canada’s Energy System • Why are Energy Systems About to Transform? 2

  3. Why are Energy Systems About to Transform? 1. Energy Security • DEMAND • Global Population Growth; • Esp. developing countries; • Economic Development • Esp. in China & India • Expect double energy demand by 2050 (& Canada) • SUPPLY • Declining conventional • More unconventional • Typically higher cost • More environmental footprint • Military & political concerns

  4. The “Get Off Oil” Campaign “America is addicted to oil… This country can… move beyond a petroleum- based economy” Feb 1, 2006 “We’ve got to get off oil…” Mar 8, 2008 … had they expressed a desire to use less wireless technology, Silicon Valley and Steve Jobs would certainly be paying attention. “…real energy security can only come if we find ways to use less oil.” Apr. 2, 2011

  5. Why are Energy Systems About to Transform? 2. Environment Fukushima Nuclear Plant Climate Change Ecosystem Impacts Excessive Water use for Energy Extraction/Conversion BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Sands

  6. A Global Perspective on the Energy-Environment Challenge 2050 target to stabilize at 450 ppm Canada’s 2050 commitment Average Yr 2000 emissions From DJC Mackay 2009 “Sustainable energy – without the hot air”

  7. Magnitude of the Challenge for Global GHG Emission Reductions Reference (Business as usual) Scenario Recommended 450 ppm CO2 Scenario The Global GHG Gap International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (Nov 2009) http://www.iea.org/ 2030 Gap: 19,000 Mt 2050 Gap: 47,000 Mt 7

  8. Canada’s Climate Change Challenge 2000 Kyoto Commitment Period (2008-12) Reducing Energy Emissions: • Non-Energy Strategies • Landfill, • Agriculture • Energy efficiency and conservation; • (transportation & building systems, co-generation, coal > NG, societal & behavioural changes…) 1600 BAU: +1.5%/yr Actual Emissions BAU: +1.0%/yr 1200 Non-energy • Increase market share for renewable & nuclear energy; Effic. & Conservation GHG Emissions Mt CO2e/yr The GHG GAP ~850 Mt CO2 800 Renewable & Alt. Energy Carbon Storage • Keep fossil carbon out of the atmosphere. (C capture and (geological) storage; Forest and agricultural sinks [e.g. biochar]) Kyoto Target 400 -17% (Cdn) 0 -65% (Cdn) -80% (USA) 2005 2020 2035 2050 1990 Year There is no ‘silver bullet’. We need ‘silver buckshot’. 8

  9. What is Likely to Trigger the Next Energy System Transition?

  10. (A) Availability & Price of Transportation Fuels 201? 1973 1979 Fuel shortages may be the catalyst for implementing US ‘OFF-OIL’ policies.

  11. A ‘Small’ Change in Demand Could Have a Significant Effect on Price. Global Oil Production A 3M boe/d (<4%) drop in demand… …A $100 boe (>70%) drop in price. $US/barrel As a (relatively) high cost producer, Alberta is vulnerable.

  12. (B) Climate Change Impacts that Shift Public Opinion Sea Level Rise Fire Pests & Disease Severe Weather Drought

  13. (C) New Technologies for Energy Production, Conversion or Use Canada’s Energy System: More efficient technologies Areas to watch for rapid change: 2. Attacks on Market Share

  14. Learnings from Past Energy Transitions US Pop’n: 5.3M 300M 100M U.S. Primary Energy Sources 100 • NOTE: • Relative stability in market share (MS) over past 40 yrs; • Long ‘incubation period’ (~40 yrs) for MS to increase from 1%10%; • Maximum rate of MS change was 1-2% per year wood 80 coal 60 oil US Market Share for Primary Energy (%) 40 gas animal feed 20 hydro, nuclear, wind 00 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1800 From CJ Cleveland, http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_transitions_past_and_future Even a 1-2% change in market share (MS) per year would have a significant effect on the economy of Alberta & Canada.

  15. “The Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones…” Former (1962-86) Saudi oil minister Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani

  16. Calgary / Albertaas an Energy City / Province • Characteristics: • Dominated by oil and gas industry; • Vibrant economically, socially, intellectually; • Strong technical and engineering expertise; • Skills for delivering large, complex projects; • Rapidly growing; • Confident, driven. Alberta Population +63K/yr Like the ‘Motor City’ (Detroit) in the 1950’s & 60’s …

  17. Avoiding the Detroit Disease

  18. What Should Alberta Do? • …Diversify by building on our strengths

  19. 1. Become Leaders in Developing ‘Low C Emission’ Communities • Rapidly growing cities are easier to change. • Initiatives may include: • Improved building standards; • Increase density, less sprawl; • Improved public transit; • Distributed heating systems; • Wind, solar, geothermal; • Electric cars if low C power; • Favorable tax structures; • Behavioural change. CHP Solar communities Public Transit

  20. A Global Opportunity • 71% of energy-related emissions occur in urban areas (IEA, 2010) • By 2050, Urban population expected to increase from 3.4B to 6.3B (UN World population prospects 2009). Nature 467: 911(21 October 2010)

  21. 2. Develop & Deploy Carbon Management Technologies • A. Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS); • Essential element for sustainable use of fossil fuels • B. Integrate renewable energy into fossil C recovery, processing & use; • Wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, etc • Esp. recovery & processing of oil & gas • Especially biomass: • C-based, like fossil fuels • Wood & straw, not food crops; • Co-fire/gasify with coal, then CCS; • Upgrade to hydrocarbons with renewable energy. Nature Materials 9: 871 (Nov. 2010): Image from the Economist

  22. 3. Build Around a Natural Gas Energy System Personal Vehicles Municipal waste, biosolids & manure Biomass Heavy Vehicles Wind & Solar anaerobic digestion gasification Power Combined cycle power plants Natural Gas(conventional & unconventional) CH4 Space/water heating Solar & Geothermal IndustrialHeat H2 CO2 Surplus renewable or nuclear energy Natural Gas - the cleanest of the fossil fuels - can be the transitional fuel to a sustainable energy system. CCS

  23. 4. Build on the Engineering Expertise of Alberta • Alberta has a‘critical mass’ of experts with a proven capacity to do large scale, complex technology development & deployment; • This is exactly the expertise needed for the next generation of large-scale, clean energy technologies Enhanced Geothermal Solar Thermal 4th Generation Nuclear

  24. Final Thought.. The Environment and the Economy are often seen as a crossroad, where we must choose one or the other. Environment and Economy must share the road to a Sustainable Future Energy System. Alberta is ideally poised to design & build this road.

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