Water cycle data and information needs : examples from the EU-FP7 «ACQWA» Project

1. Assessing Climate Impacts on the Quantity and Quality of Water Water cycle data and information needs :examples from the EU-FP7 «ACQWA» Project Martin Beniston Institute for Environmental Sciences University of Geneva, Switzerland Martin.Beniston@unige.ch GEOSS-IPCC Workshop, 02.02.2011

2. Mountains as a source of more than half the world’s rivers

3. Upstream-downstream links Rhine Basin >50 million Danube Basin >200 million Rhone Basin >15 million Po Basin >15 million

4. The Rhone River catchment 95,000 km2; 16 million inhabitants Swiss segment: 10,100 km2 1.2 million inhabitants Environmental Controls Economic Controls Climate Tourism Glaciers Snow Runoff Energy Vegetation Agriculture Geomorphic Extremes

5. MODELS Climate Ice/Glacier Snow Biosphere Hydrology Overview of ACQWA project components

6. Beniston, 2006: Geophysical Research Letters Changes in seasonal temperatures (at 2,500 m asl) 15 1961-1990 10 2071-2100 Beniston, 2004: Climatic Change and Impacts, Springer 5 Temperature [°C] 0 -5 Winter Spring Summer Autumn

7. Beniston, 2006: Geophysical Research Letters Changes in seasonal precipitation 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 Precipitation change 2071/2100 vs 1961/1990 [%] 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn

8. Shifts in snow volume according to altitude Beniston et al., 2003: Theor. and Appl. Clim. 4500 Slight increase 4000 3500 3000 Altitude [m] 2500 40-60% loss +4°C 2000 1500 1000 Almost total loss 500 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Total volume [109 m3]

9. 2050? +3°C? Glacier retreat:Tschierva Glacier, Engadine 2000 Courtesy: Max Maisch University of Zurich, Switzerland

10. Possible future discharge by 2100(m3/s, River Rhone) 400 1961-1990 350 300 250 200 Average monthly discharge [m3/s] 2071-2100 150 Beniston, 2010: Journal of Hydrology 100 50 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D

11. MODELS Climate Ice/Glacier Snow Biosphere Hydrology IMPACTS Tourism Energy Agriculture Extremes Overview of ACQWA project components

12. Alleviating rivalries between economic sectors? Climatic change Water resources Tourism Agriculture Energy Mining Conflict mitigation through improved water governance?

13. MODELS Climate Ice/Glacier Snow Biosphere Hydrology IMPACTS Tourism Energy Agriculture Extremes POLICY Adaptation Governance Chile Kyrgyzstan CASE- STUDIES Overview of ACQWA project components An analogy today for the Alps of tomorrow? Possible opportunities during the 21st Century?

14. Data problems specific to the ACQWA project • Compatibility and transferability of socio-economic and demographic data for models requiring spatially-explicit data • Access to sensitive data in IWRM research, primarily water deviation as well as storage-pumping data and production schemes from hydropower companies • Access to hydrological and meteorological data in the Po, Aconcagua and Tien-Shan catchments (very restricted access, non-availability of digital data, little literature) • Groundwater data for spatially-explicit modelling

15. Outcomes of a recent ACQWA-sponsored workshop on data and science gaps(Riederalp, Switzerland, January 12-15, 2011) • About 25 different EU water&climate-related projects represented • Primary foci: • Identification of gaps in data and scientific information that can pose problems for the completion of major research projects • Possible solutions to alleviate such problems

16. Identification ofproblem areas - 1 • Partial inconsistency between physical and socio-economic data and models • For example, data on water uses may not be available at the temporal and spatial detail required by hydrologic models. • Hydrological information is often based on basins whereas economic (and social) data is administration regions. • Thus economic and physical data are often incompatible, because collected by different entities for different purposes. • Interactions between water policies and policies in other major sectors: • For example, is water policy consistent with energy, agriculture, and other industrial policies at the national and supra-national levels?

17. Identification ofproblem areas - 2 • Measurements of total discharge (time variation or peak) and flood velocity across river and flood plain during extreme events are rare • Floods in urban areas are controlled by topography, connectivity of the road network, sub-surface sewerage system; flooding into properties depends upon the location and dimension of potential entry points. • This high density of data is not generally available to support research studies. • Water quality information is sparse • Sediments (bed load; suspended); biota (pathogens; parasites). • The remobilisation of polluted sediments in extreme floods as an important mechanism in contaminant transport is poorly known

18. Possible solutions • Future research should address: • building compatible data sets and the conversion process between different data formats • developing toolboxes for upscaling, downscaling and bias correcting data • Establishment of a clearinghouse of relevant and structured data, including meta-data, hosting not only data from public and other services but also a compilation of relevant data produced by EU-type projects

19. Additional factors that need to be considered… • Are policy makers able/willing to exploit all available information produced by the scientific community? • There is still a big gap between science available and its use in policy – how can scientists improve the flow of information?

20. Communication ofscientific results beyond IPCC • Increased awareness about the future of water resources in a given region to provide support to policies • Integration of inputs from stakeholders at both river basin and trans-boundary levels to attain adaptation goals • Information on projections and revision of water management plans, inter alia for the IPCC and UN-ISDR • Web-based tools to support water scenario development processes

21. Assessing Climate Impacts on the Quantity and Quality of Water Many thanks for your attention www.unige.ch/climate Martin.Beniston@unige.ch GEOSS-IPCC Workshop, 02.02.2011