Midterm evaluation of teaching

1. Midterm evaluationof teaching • Get out a piece of paper • Keep it anonymous • What should Ron: • Start doing -- new things that might work • Stop doing -- things that aren’t working • Continue doing -- things that are working

2. Outline • Midterm Essay Question • Balance of Power theory • World War I: history and explanation • World War II: history and explanation • War and its causes • Nuclear weapons

3. Balance of Power theory • Three definitions of “balance of power” • Description of distribution of existing power between states • Conscious policy and set of principles intended by states to achieve a balance of power • Unintended consequence of international system structure • “Secondary states … flock to the weaker side” (Waltz) • States sometime bandwagon rather than balance

4. Characteristics of polarity and balancing • Number of poles: • unipolar (hegemony) • bipolar • multipolar • Degree of polarization: • tightness • discreteness of poles • level of animosity • Relationship to war • imbalances cause war, equilibrium causes peace

5. World War I and its causes • Deep causes: • Increasing power of Germany • Less flexible alliance structure. • Intermediate causes • Concerns about encirclement and expansionist policies • Serb nationalism threatening to Austro-Hungary • Domestic German politics => adventurism and expansionism • Complacency about need to balance (as conscious policy) • Proximate causes • Poor leadership and diplomacy of Austro-Hungary, Russia, and Germany • Assassination came at bad time

6. GavriloPrincip killing Archduke Francis Ferdinand 6/28/1914 Illustration from Italian newspaper.http://www.npr.org/2014/03/06/285893848/how-bad-directions-and-a-sandwich-started-world-war-i

7. Rising Nationalism Rising popular participation Collapse of Austria-Hungary Domestic class conflict Aggressive German Policy Rise in German power Bipolarity of Alliances Loss of moderation in system process Escalating Crisis War in 1914 Source: Nye 2011, p. 93

8. World War II and its causes • Systemic level causes • Effects of First World War • WWI treaties too harsh and too lenient • State level causes • Poorly planned policies • Stalin pact with Hitler ignores downside risks • Strong nationalism in Germany and Japan • Economic collapse of Great Depression • US isolationism • Individual level causes • Hitler’s aggressive, expansionist, nationalist ideology • Appeasement and misperceptions by Chamberlain, et al. • Poor theory of Wilson and League of Nations • Japanese miscalculation of power vis-à-vis US

9. Causes of war (Farnsworth, 1992) • Human nature • Balance of power theory – imbalances cause war • Efforts by states to build up own forces because they feel threatened • Number of states in system • Demands of domestic system • Nationalism • Bad leadership and policy choices

13. Strategic Nuclear Weapons: 1997 vs. 2014 1997: http://www.cdi.org/issues/nukef&f/database/nukestab.html and 2014: http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat

14. Tactical Nuclear Weapons: 1997 vs. 2014 1997: http://www.cdi.org/issues/nukef&f/database/nukestab.html and 2014: http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat

15. Effects of nuclear weapons • Decreased likelihood of total war • Increased devastation should war occur • Increased likelihood of regional wars

16. Pre-Nuclear World

17. Nuclear World

18. Explaining Cold War Peace

19. A nuclear taboo? • Logic of consequences: decisions as cost-benefit calculation from available means • Logic of appropriateness: decisions as "what is right in current situation, given social identity state desires" • Tannenwald: • Bush 1: nuclear weapon use not considered because not “right” thing for Americans to do • There WERE previous nuclear threats

20. Nuclear vs. chemical and biological weapons • How do they differ? • Ease of acquisition: availability of components and know-how, known likelihood of success • Ease of use • Magnitude and type of impacts • Why do we consider some worse than others?