Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction in NWS Water Science and Services

1. Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction in NWS Water Science and Services Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Group Hydrology Laboratory Office of Hydrologic Development NOAA/National Weather Service

2. Physical Elements Included in NWS Water Science Objectives Forcings Precipitation Air Temperature Humidity Winds Radiative Anthropogenic QPF QPE Solar Longwave Aerosols Irrigation Liquid, solid, Extreme Events, Space-Time Variability Infiltration Soil Hydraulics Soil Heterogeneity Soil Characteristics Storage Snow Lakes Marshes & Wetlands Reservoirs Soil Moisture & Temperature Channel Storage Ground-water Geologic Transport Canopy Interception Location Size Management/ Operations SWE, Depth Cover Extent Snowmelt Location Size Water Quality Withdrawal Recharge Quality Karst Topography Volcanic Regions Fault Zones Channel geometry Channel loss Moisture Profile Temperature Profile Frozen Soil Evaporation Soil Evaporation Water Surfaces Snow Sublimation Evapotranspiration Flow Water Quality Runoff River Flow Coastal Zones Debris & Snow Flows Ungauged Basins Freshwater Inflow to Estuaries Tidal Influences River Ice Diversions & Return Flows Extreme Events Channel Geometry Sediment Transport Temperature Pollutants Salinization Surface Flow Subsurface Flow Surface Properties Varying capability in NWS Land Use/Cover Soil Characteristics Albedo Topography Vegetation Type, Density Seasonal Phenomenology Forest Burn Areas Stream Networks Basin Boundaries Radiative Transfer Modeling Limited Capability in NWS

3. Vision for Ensemble & DA Improved accuracy, Reliable uncertainty estimates, Benefit-cost effectiveness maximized

4. NOAA/NWS Hydrology ProgramBeforeand Since the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Before Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) at the forefront, boundary conditions driven by weather, climate and initial conditions. Since Limited primarily to flood forecasting, boundary conditions driven largely by major weather events

5. Ensemble Water Supply Forecasting

6. Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting

7. Strategy for short-term ensemble streamflow prediction From Seo et al. (2006): available athttp://www.copernicus.org/EGU/hess/hessd/3/1987/hessd-3-1987.htm

8. Reliable and skillful ENSEMBLES (streamflow and forcings) and associated meta data for 1 hour to 2 years User selectable attributes: period duration time aggregation probability levels thresholds probability type analogs based on meta data User selectable context mean, median, max, min analogs based on meta data specific years specific forecast w/outcome Archive of hindcasts, forecasts, simulations, observations, and meta data x XEFS Products & Services Specific data, forecasts, ensembles, and analysis for use in value added processes (e.g. flood inundation mapping) GRAPHICS BINARY 010101010101010101010101010101 TEXT XML Verification information in user friendly form Instructional (annotated examples)

9. Ensemble forecasting and data assimilation address reduction and accurate accounting of major uncertainties Reduction and accurate accounting of hydrologic uncertainty is critical to reliable and skillful hydrologic ensemble/probabilistic products

10. Data Assimilator - Strategy CPPA external (Clark et al.) MODIS-derived snow cover Atmospheric forcing In-situ snow water equivalent (SWE) Snow models AMSR-derived SWE1 SNODAS SWE Snowmelt MODIS-derived surface temperature Potential evap. (PE) Precipitation MODIS-derived cloud cover Soil moisture accounting models In-situ soil moisture (SM) AMSR-derived SM1 Runoff NASA-NWS (Restrepo (PI) Peters-Lidard (Co-PI) and Limaye (Co-PI) et al.) Hydrologic routing models Streamflow or stage CPPA Core, AHPS, Water Resources (Seo et al.) Flow Satellite altimetry Hydraulic routing models River flow or stage Flow 1 pending assessment reservoir, etc., models

11. VAR-aided forecast as time-lagged ensembles (cont.)

12. ABRFC / WTTO2 WTTO2 Channel Network

13. NWS Water Science Framework Integrated S&T Infusion WEATHER & CLIMATE FOCUS Provide improved prediction of atmospheric forcing Coupled ocean/atmospheric/ land-surface model (global) NCEP Coupled atmospheric/land-surface model (regional) Observing Systems (Remote Sensing and In Situ Observations) Common HYDRO-LSM (Hydrologic Land-Surface Modeling System) (Uncoupled) NOAA Labs (Observations, Modeling, etc.) WATER FOCUS Produce fine-scale operational water resources monitoring and prediction. Water resources models (hillslope, channel, reservoir, diversion, return flow, hydraulic, others) Interface with Estuary Models, Water Quality Models OHD, HSD/NOHRSC, RFCs Ensemble Paradigm Land Surface Hydrology & Water Resources Modeling