NWS Hydrologic Services Program

1. NWS Hydrologic Services Program FEMA Workshop May 5, 2011 Patricia Brown Senior Service Hydrologist NWS WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge LA

2. A Lot of Water! NOAA - An Integrated Perspective Rivers & Streams Reservoirs & Lakes Wetlands Estuaries Coasts Gulf of Mexico Soil Moisture Ground Water Water Quality • NOAA Satellites and Information•NOAA Fisheries•NOAA Ocean Service •NOAA Research•NOAA Office of Marine & Aviation Operations • NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

3. NWS National Hydrologic Services • The Office of Hydrologic Development • Plan, develop, demonstrate, and integrate scientific techniques and software capabilities for the Hydrologic Services Program • Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services • Hydrologic Service Division • Hydrologic Service Branch • Hydrologic Support Branch • National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

4. NWS Hydrology Field Offices • National Centers for Environmental Prediction • Hydrometeorogical Prediction Center (HPC) • Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) • Storm Prediction Center (SPC) • Climate Prediction Center (CPC) • River Forecast Center Hydrology Field Work • 13 River Forecast Centers • Weather Forecast Office Hydrology Field Work • 122 Weather Offices

5. NWS Hydrologic Services Program • National Products • Climate Prediction Center (CPC) • Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) •   Storm Prediction Center (SPC) •  National Hurricane Center (NHC) • Major River Basins • Arkansas-Red • Basin RFC • Lower • Mississippi RFC • Southeast RFC • West Gulf RFC Forecast Points NWFO New Orleans/ Baton Rouge High Resolution Grids NWFO New Orleans/ Baton Rouge

6. Service Hydrologist Contact by MS County

7. WFO HYDROLOGIC SERVICES AREA(HSA) NWFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge’s HSA • Does not include: Red River Homochitto River • Includes Atchafalaya River in the following Parishes: Avoyelles St. Landry St. Martin Iberia St. Mary

8. Location, Location, Location! Terrain! Fort Massachusetts, MS0 Feet Elevation at Carriere, MS 98 Feet Elevation at Slidell 9 Feet Elevation at Port Vincent 7 Feet Elevation at Hammond 44 Feet

9. WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge Hydrology Program Goals Flash Flood Forecasts Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction Deliver improved dam failure flood forecasts Short- To Long-Term River Forecasts Deliver accurate flood forecasts and statements along our major rivers Provide accurate and timely planning tools, i.e., Contingency River Forecasts Provide accurate and timely Hydrologic Outlooks Graphical Dissemination of Hydrologic Information Provide accurate and current Web-based products and graphics Respond to user needs for products, as appropriate Hydrologic Information Provide accurate and current text products Provide accurate and current drought information, as necessary

10. Hydrologic Forecast Services Leveraging GovernmentInfrastructure and Expertise Satellite Data Precipitation Estimates River Gauge Data Weather Observations Radar Data Snow Cover/ Melt Data Precipitation Forecasts Reservoir Releases Climate Predictions Valuable Information to Satisfy Diverse NWS Partner and Customer Needs

11. AHPS

12. Various Warnings and Statements issued by WFO Hydrologic Outlook Longer term forecast information on floods. River Flood Warning River flooding is occurring or imminent. River Flood Statement Updates River Flood Warning information. Flash Flood Warning Flash Flooding is occurring or imminent. Flash Flood Statement Updates Flash Flood Warning information. Flood Advisory Nuisance flooding is occurring or imminent.

13. RED RIVER LANDINGFORECAST CREST – 65.5 FTMAY 21 STAGE 05/03 – 52.16 FT AT 5:00 AM CDT • ALL RIVER ISLANDS TO BATON ROUGE, RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND BOTTOM FARM LANDS WILL BE INUNDATED. • 58 FT – ANGOLA FARMLAND ON THE LEFT BANKS INUNDATED. • 59 FT – EAST BANK LEVEE TOPPED AND PRISON FARMLAND BETWEEN THE LEVEES INUDATED. • 62 FT – THE INNER LEVEE, THE LAST PROTECTION FOR THE PRISON AT ANGOLA, WILL BE THREATENED. ANGOLA LANDING WILL BE UNDER WATER, THUS THE FERRY WILL BE CLOSED. • 64 FT – THE MAIN ACREAGE AND SOME BUILDINGS WILL BE FLOODED AT THE ANGOLA STATE PENITENTIARY AS THE INNER LEVEE WILL BE TOPPED. • 68.59 FT – THE WEST BANK LEVEE WILL BE TOPPED AND THE TOWN OF LETTSWORTH WILL BE FLOODED.

14. RED RIVER LANDINGFORECAST CREST – 65.5 FT DATE CREST CFS • 03/25/1997 62.30 RECORD • 05/14/1927 60.94 1779000 • 04/25/2008 60.69 • 04/24/2008 60.68 1456461 • 06/05/1983 60.52

15. BATON ROUGEFORECAST CREST – 47.5 FTMAY 21 STAGE 05/03 – 34.8 FT AT 6:00 AM CDT • 35 FT – RIVER ISLANDS FROM RED RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE WILL BE INUNDATED. • 36 FT – RIVER TRAFFIC AND INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY ON THE RIVER SIDE OF THE LEVEES WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED. NAVIGATIONAL SAFETY REGULATIONS WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED. • 38 FT – RIVER TRAFFIC AND INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED. NAVIGATION SAFETY REGULATIONS WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED. • 40 FT – THE GROUNDS OF THE OLDER PART OF LSU CAMPUS BECOME SOGGY. THIS INCLUDES THE ARE AROUND THE VETERINARY MEDINE BUILDING, THE VETERINARY ANNEX, THE STADIUM, AND THE BALL FIELDS. THE CITY OF BATON ROUGE AND THE MAIN LSU CAMPUS ARE PROTECTED BY LEVEES AT THIS LEVEL. • 43 FT – SHIPPING AND INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITIES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED. UNPROTECTED LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE FLOODED AND AGRICULTURAL OPERATIONS WILL BE IMPACTE DON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIVER. THE CITY OF BATON ROUGE IS PROTECTED AT THIS LEVEL.

16. BATON ROUGEFORECAST CREST – 47.5 FT DATE CREST CFS • 05/15/1927 47.28 RECORD • 05/16/1922 45.18 • 04/29/1945 45.18 • 04/16/1945 44.58 1473000 • 02/28/1937 44.48

17. DONALDSONVILLEFORECAST CREST – 36.0 FTMAY 21 STAGE 05/02 – 23.99 FT AT 7:00 AM CDT • 27 FT – NAVIGATION BECOMES DIFFICULT FOR SMALLER RIVER CRAFTS. SAFETY PRECAUTIONS FOR RIVER TRAFFIC ARE URGED. • 30 FT – MODERATE FLOODING ENSUES. • 34 FT – RIVER BARGE TRAFFIC BECOMES DANGEROUS, PARTICULARLY WHEN NAVIGATING SHARP TURNS ON THIS STRETCH OF THE RIVER. • 38 FT – THE NET GRADE PROTECTION OF THE LEVEE WILL BE REACHED, THREATENING THE CITY OF DONALDSONVILLE AND THE SURROUDING COUNTRYSIDE.

18. DONALDSONVILLEFORECAST CREST – 36.0 FT DATE CREST CFS • 05/15/1927 36.01 RECORD • 05/16/1922 34.75 • 04/29/1945 34.11 • 05/10/1912 33.91 • 05/29/1983 33.30

19. RESERVEFORECAST CREST – 25.0 FTMAY 22 STAGE 05/03 – 18.87 FT AT 6:00 AM CDT • 22 FT – MARINE AND INDUSTRIAL INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER, UPSTREAM BARGE OPERATORS, AND FACILITIES ARE IMPACTED. NAVIGATION WILL BECOME DIFFICULT FOR SMALLER RIVER CRAFT. SAFETY PRECAUTIONS FOR RIVER TRAFFIC ARE URGED. • 24 FT – MODERATE FLOODING ENSUES. LEVEES PROTECT THE REGION AT THIS LEVEL. • 26 FT – MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS. LEVEES PROTECT THE REGION AT THIS LEVEL.

20. RESERVEFORECAST CREST – 25.0 FT DATE CREST CFS • 06/11/1929 26.00 RECORD • 04/28/1945 25.90 • 03/05/1932 25.60 • 02/26/1937 25.60 • 02/10/1950 25.60

21. NEW ORLEANSFORECAST CREST – 17.0 FTMAY 22 STAGE 05/03 – 13.58 FT AT 6:00 AM CDT • 17 FT – THE RIVER WILL RISE ON THE LEVEE MAKING NAVIGATION AND DOCKING DIFFICULT. THE CITY IS PROTECTED TO A PROJECT HEIGHT OF 20 FT. BONNET CARRE SPILLWAY MIGHT BE OPENED WHEN PROJECTED FLOW EXCEEDS 1.25 MILLION CFS TO LIMIT FLOW PAST NEW ORLEANS AND TO PREVENT FURTHER RISES AT THE CARROLLTON GAUGE. • 19 FT – MODERATE FLOODING ENSUES. • 20 FT – A 20 FT PROJECT LEVEE PROTECTS THE CITY. FLOODWALLS AND LEVEES ARE CONSTANTLY UPGRADED TO MAINTAIN THAT PROJECT HEIGHT.

22. NEW ORLEANSFORECAST CREST – 17.0 FT DATE CREST CFS • 04/25/1922 21.27 RECORD • 05/11/1912 21.02 • 04/25/1927 21.00 • 05/18/1927 20.50 1557000 • 03/03/1916 20.05

23. MORGAN CITYFORECAST CREST – 10 FT STAGE 05/03 – 5.41 FT AT 6:00 AM CDT • 5 FT – FLOODWALL GATES WILL BE CLOSED TO PROTECT AGAINST HIGHER STAGES. VESSEL TRAFFIC WILL BE AFFECTED BY STRONGER RIVER CURRENT AND VESSEL TRAFFIC SAFETY RULES STRICTLY ENFORCED BY THE U. S. COAST GUARD. • 6 FT – THE CITY DOCK WILL BE UNDER WATER. WATER WILL COVER THE LOWER END OF BELLEVIEW FRONT STREET IN BERWICK. TRAFFIC RESTRICTIONS WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED. • 7 FT – BUILDINGS AT THE FOOT OF ANN STREET ON THE RIVER SIDE OF THE FLOOD WALL WILL FLOOD AS WATER OVERTOPS THE RIO OIL COMPANY DOCK. BUILDINGS ON THE RIVER SIDE OF THE BERWICK FLOODWALL WILL FLOOD. RIVER TRAFFIC RESTRICTIONS WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED. • 9 FT – STRUCTURES ON THE RIVER SIDE OF PROTECTION WALLS IN MORGAN CITY AND BERWICK WILL BE UNDER WATER. RIVER TRAFFIC RESTRICTIONS WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED. • 12 FT – THERE IS A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT. BACK WATER FLOODING OF BAYOU BOUEF WILL CAUSE DAMAGE EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE COMMUNITY OF AMELIA. STRUCTURES ON THE RIVER SIDE OF PROTECTION WALLS IN MORGAN CITY AND BERWICK WILL BE UNDER WATER. RIVER TRAFFIC RESTRICTIONS WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED.

24. MORGAN CITYFORECAST CREST – 10 FT DATE CREST CFS • 05/28/1973 10.53 RECORD • 06/27/1957 8.46 • 04/05/1997 8.06 • 04/18/1975 7.95 • 06/06/1983 7.32

25. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Video 4 and 20 minutes Pamphlet(on-line) Brochures AHPS Information Toolbox www.nws.noaa.gov/om/water/Ahps.shtml DVD – 22 minutes . .

26. NWS Hydrology Outreach Tools Brochures Audio Video Internet www.nws.noaa.gov/om/water/index.shtml

27. Flood SafetyBrochures www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures.shtml . .

28. Wrap – Up • Questions and Comments • weather.gov • NWS Resource Web Sites • www.srh.noaa.gov – Southern Region Headquarters • www.srh.noaa.gov/lix - WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge LA at Slidell, LA • www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc - Lower MS River Forecast Center at Slidell, LA • www.nhc.noaa.gov – National Hurricane Center