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Orbital Debris and

Orbital Debris and . BRIEFING. Collisional Cascading. Di Carlo T. The Problem.

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Orbital Debris and

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  1. Orbital Debris and BRIEFING Collisional Cascading Di Carlo T.

  2. The Problem Random collisions between man-made objects in earth orbit may some day initiate cascading collisions that will exponentially pollute these high-value orbits, rendering them exceedingly hazardous for space ventures. As suggested by.: Collisional Cascading -The Limits of Population Growth in Low Earth Orbit, Kessler, Donald J., NASA Doc ID 19920036034, Adv. Space Res. Vol. 11, No. 12, pp. (12)63-(12)66, 1991 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  3. Sampling of Prior Art EVOLVE- one-dimensional, LEO-only, deterministic and stochastic environment evolution model with Monte Carlo processing (NASA) LEGEND– Leo-to-Geo Environment Debris model, 3-dimensional (altitude, latitude, longitude) evolutionary model (NASA) CHAINEE– PIB model for long-term LEO predictions based on traffic assumptions and mitigation measures (ESA) SDM/STAT– like CHAINEE, based on modulation of background population (ESA) PIB– particle in a box (1) (1) for a description of PIB see: Analytic Model for orbital Debris Environmental Management, David L. Talent, Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 29, No. 4, pp. 508-513, 1992 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  4. ORDEM Engineering Model NASA Orbital Debris Program Architecture Source: NASA 26 July 2006 Orbital Debris Environment Presentation to ISS Independent Safety Task Force Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  5. Sources / Sinks Satellites~120 launches per year worldwide (but, emerging China, Japan and India space programs could inflate this figure; double it?) (1) (2) Rocket Body Parts~ 2-3 per launch (1) Spontaneous Explosions, Fragmentations– 3% (6), 124 since 1961 (2) Anti-Satellite Tests (ASAT) Soviet Union, at least 4 between 1968 and 1982 (3) (5) USA, at least 1 in 1985 (Solwind) (4) China, 1 in 2007 Space Warfare – none, yet Random Collisions– 1 to date (Cerise, 1996, without explosion) (5) Natural Decay– due to drag, also function of solar activity DeOrbits and Retrievals– policy options (1) Analytic Model for orbital Debris Environmental Management, David L. Talent, Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 29, No. 4, pp. 508-513, 1992 (2) Office of Science and Technology, Nov 1995 Interagency Report on Orbital Debris (3) http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/18/world/asia/18cnd-china.html?ex=1326776400&en=3f5fb4a065572bbb&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss (4) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon (5) Survey of past on-orbit fragmentation events, Carmen Pardini, Acta Astronautica 56 (2005) 379-389 (6) Future Planned Space Traffic: 1990-2010 and Beyond, Phillip D. Anz-Meador, AIAA/NASA/DOD Orbital Debris Conf., April 16-19, 1990, Baltimore MD Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  6. SATELLITE LAUNCHES The System DEBRIS SOURCES Nations Vying for Space Superiority Nation’s Technological Development Nations Wanting Access to Space New Space Programs SPONTANEOUS EXPLOSIONS ANTI-SATELLITE TEST COLLISIONS ORBITAL SPACE DEBRIS POPULATION Solar Flux DEORBIT, RETRIEVAL DECAY DEBRIS SINKS Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  7. 200000 Objects in LEO! [1cm or larger] 500000 by 2050 (1998 U.N. Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer-Space prediction) Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee, 43rd Session http://www.orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/photogallery/beehives/LEO1280.jpg CNES/ill.D.DUCROS,1999 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  8. Conceptual Model Solar Flux Collision Block Decay Block SSN Catalog c1 c2 s1 s2 s3 c3 s4 c4 Holding Tanks 1m 10 cm 1cm 1mm initialization est. of untrackable objects w1 g3 w1 g4 w1 g1 w1 g2 New Satellites Input BreakupBlock ASAT Input s1 s2 s3 s4 Exit Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  9. Reference Behavior (measurement) Number of Catalogued Space Objects (typically 4 in. or larger) 200-300 / yr Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  10. Reference Behavior (simulation) NASA EVOLVE PROJECTIONS SOURCE: http://www.orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/newsletter/pdfs/ODQNv10i2.pdf Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  11. Preliminary Extend Model USER INTERFACE PIB EQUATION LEVELS COEFFICIENTS COUNTERS, PLOTTERS, AND CONSTANTS EXCEL INTERFACE Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  12. Particle In a Box Equation new objects; mostly policy-driven debris sweep rate- a policy measure crude attempt to model modulating effect of solar activity orbit decay; crude and semi-empirical temporary place-holder, suggesting dependence on altitude Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  13. Notional User Interface Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  14. Extend Deposition Sub-Model Number of significant fragments generated per explosion (could be stochastic) Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  15. Extend Removal Sub-Model Extend – Excel INTERFACE Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  16. Extend Collisions Sub-Model Number of significant fragments generated per collision (could be stochastic) Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  17. Extend ◄► Excel Extend Global Array Managers Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  18. 1-Tier, 1-Species Altitude Range: 350 – 1800 km Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  19. 4-Tier, 1-Species (to be implemented) 500-800 km 800-1500 km 1500-2000 km 200-500 km Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  20. Critical Simplifying Assumptions De-Orbit Algorithm– crude, based on average debris diameter, which is turn estimated a function of on-orbit mass, number of orbiting objects, and the simplifying assumption that objects are spherical and of uniform density. Solar Flux Prediction– I assume a repeating 21 cycle; may be critical for longer-term predictions Number of Pieces per explosion– 120, could be stochastic Number of Fragments per collision– 200, could be stochastic Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  21. Preliminary Extend Results (1957-2010) Solar Activity (F10) and Orbital Decay (N_out) Solar Activity (Jansky) Decay (number/year) Simulation Year Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  22. Preliminary Extend Results (1957-2010) Significant Objects in Low Earth Orbit (N) Significant Objects in LEO Simulation Year Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  23. Preliminary Extend Results (1957-2010) Satellite Kill Rate (rough estimate) Collision Coefficient (C) SAT Kill Rate (#/yr) Simulation Year Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  24. Preliminary Insights Will Collisional Cascading Occur? - maybe, but I’m not seeing it yet (N tends to level out) Policy and Design – they DO make a difference, for example - post-mission disposal of upper stages reduces N 20% - Doubling SAT density (packaging) reduces N 20% Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  25. Forward Work [NEAR-TERM] Validation– match reference behaviors; get/implement Kessler’s input Sensitivity Analysis– screen for critical parameters and fine tune them 4-Tier, 1-Species Implementation – if time allows (for granularity) [LONG-TERM] Historical Satellite Database – link to database Implement as a Discrete Event n-Tier, n-SpeciesSimulation Simplify user Interface – using Extend Notebook Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  26. Summary Simulation of orbital accumulation: Inspired by 1991 paper describing idea of Collisional Cascading – AKA The Kessler Syndrome Resources, Reference Behaviors: Extend6 Simulation Development Environment SSN Catalog; published historical trends; loads of studies and published papers; Don Kessler Implementation: Particle-in-a-Box Continuous Simulation Model Extend◄►Excel; User “Policy” Interface Potential Benefits, and Lessons to be Learned: Dynamics of orbital crowding Conditions for Collisional Cascading Space as a Sustainable Resource Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

  27. Publications and Resources (1) Collisional cascading - The Limits of Population Growth in Low Earth Orbit, Kessler, Donald J., NASA Doc ID 19920036034 (2) Littered Skies, NYTimes.com, 6 Feb 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/06/science/20070206_ORBIT_GRAPHIC.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin (3) Overview of Orbital Space Debris, IPS Radio and Space Services, www.ips.gov.au/Educational/4/2/1 (4) Space Simulation and Modeling - Roles and Applications Throughout the System Life Cycle, Larry B. Rainey editor, The Aerospace Press, El Segundo CA, 2002 (5) Simulation Model of Space Station Operations in the Space Debris Environment, Mark M. Mekaru and Brian M. Waechter, Proceedings of the 1985 Winter Simulation Conference (6) Collisions of Artificial Earth Orbiting Bodies, L. Sehnal and L. Pospisilova, Publishing House of the Czechoslovak Academy of Sciences, 18 Nov 1980 (7) Orbital Debris Environment Resulting from Future Activities in Space, Shin-Yi Su, Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research and the Department of Atmospheric Physics, National Central University, Chung-Li, P.R.C., Taiwan, 23 Oct 2002 (8) The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, NASA/TP—2002-210780, May 2002 ORDEM2000www.orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/library/ORDEM/ORDEM2K.pdf Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo

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