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Stakeholder Meeting July 31, 2012

Observing System Overview. Stakeholder Meeting July 31, 2012. Kevin Werner NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. Importance of Data. Good data is foundational for good forecasts. Bad data ensures bad forecasts. Good calibration – NFVU1. Enough data, good record, many events….

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Stakeholder Meeting July 31, 2012

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  1. Observing System Overview Stakeholder MeetingJuly 31, 2012 Kevin Werner NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

  2. Importance of Data Good data is foundational for good forecasts. Bad data ensures bad forecasts

  3. Good calibration – NFVU1 • Enough data, good record, many events…

  4. Mean Absolute Error (1979-1995): 30 cfs Mean Flow (1979-1995): 120 cfs Flood Flow (current rating): 5517 cfs

  5. Poor calibration – MUDN2 • Almost no data, not much of a record, almost no events to calibrate to….

  6. Mean Absolute Error (1979-1995): 56 cfs Mean Flow (1979-1995): 3 cfs Flood Flow (current rating): 1197 cfs

  7. Forecast precip / temp Forecast Process Hydrologic Model Analysis hydrologic expertise & judgment model guidance River Forecast System Weather and Climate Forecasts River Forecasts Outputs Graphics Rules, values, other factors, politics Analysis & Quality Control parameters Observed Data Calibration Decisions

  8. 1983 NWS document

  9. CBRFC Data In • Daily data used in CBRFC daily forecasting: • ~260 precipitation sites • ~330 temperature sites • ~875 river flow, reservoir, and diversions • ~95 reservoir storage

  10. CBRFC Data In circa 1983

  11. Key observing systems NRCS SNOTEL (Randy Julander) USGS Stream Gauging (Pat Lambert) NWS COOP, Radar, etc (Larry Dunn)

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