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Energy Security in an International Context: The Challenges

Energy Security in an International Context: The Challenges. Herzliya Conference January 2008 Ann Eggington Office of Global Energy Dialogue International Energy Agency. Energy Security. DEMAND. ENVIRONMENT. RESERVES. AFFORDABILITY. INVESTMENT. PHYSICAL SECURITY. TECHNOLOGY.

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Energy Security in an International Context: The Challenges

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  1. Energy Security in an International Context:The Challenges Herzliya Conference January 2008 Ann Eggington Office of Global Energy Dialogue International Energy Agency

  2. Energy Security DEMAND ENVIRONMENT RESERVES AFFORDABILITY INVESTMENT PHYSICAL SECURITY TECHNOLOGY GEOPOLITICS Original Artwork By Marjory Spielman

  3. Reference Scenario: World Primary Energy Demand 18 000 Other renewables Nuclear 16 000 Biomass 14 000 Gas 12 000 10 000 Mtoe Coal 8 000 6 000 4 000 Oil 2 000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms © OECD/IEA, 2007

  4. Reference Scenario:New Light-Duty Vehicle Sales in China 18 16 14 12 Overtake US sales 10 million 8 6 4 Overtake Japan sales 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 China’s oil imports jump from 3.5 mb/d in 2006 to 13 mb/d in 2030 – as car ownership increase 7-fold to 140 per 1 000 people © OECD/IEA, 2007

  5. CO2 Emissions - 450 Stabilisation Case 42 Gt 23 Gt Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 45 CCS in industry Reference Scenario CCS in power generation 40 Nuclear Renewables 35 Switching from coal to gas 2 End Use electricity efficiency 30 Gt of CO End Use fuel efficiency 25 27 Gt 450 Stabilisation Case 20 15 10 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 By 2030, emissions are reduced to some 23 Gt, a reduction of 19 Gt compared with the Reference Scenario © OECD/IEA, 2007

  6. Proven Oil Reserves by Region, end-2005 (77) (77) (213) (94) (171) (117) (109) (103) (18) (65) (41) (11) (14) (52) (11) (23) (19) (25) (8) (48) ( reserves-to-production ratio, years ) (24)

  7. Proven Gas Reserves and Production by Region

  8. A Rocky Time for Energy Markets Europe Gas Supplies Europe Oil Supplies Russia Policy US Refinery Bottlenecks N-Korea Nuclear Ambition China Demand increase Iran Nuclear Ambition US Hurricanes Iraq: Sabotage Venezuela Resource Nationalism Nigeria Civil Unrest Indonesia LNG exports Strait of Malacca Piracy © OECD/IEA, 2007

  9. TOWARDS A SOLUTION Improved transparency Technology Energy efficiency AND…

  10. Ongoing Evolution of Deepwater Technology Courtesy of Shell The industry’s track record in pushing the limits of technology to access deepwater resources is impressive – and will continue towards reservoirs in greater depths and farther away from the coastline. Slide 10 of 12

  11. Promote energy efficiency:The essential first step Hypothetical energy use without energy efficiency improvements Energy efficiency improvements Energy efficiency improvements Actual energy use Actual energy use Since 1990, the rate of energy efficiency improvement in IEA countries has been less than 1% per year – much lower than in previous decades. We must - and we can - do better! Source: Energy Use in the New Millennium (IEA, 2007)

  12. Major World Oil Supply Disruptions

  13. Stockholding in IEA CountriesCurrent stocks Total IEA Stocks by Region (end June 2007) Unit: million barrels

  14. North American Blackout August 14th 2003, 16:00 © OECD/IEA, 2007

  15. Italy left in the Dark28th September 2003, 03:30 UK France Italy Spain © OECD/IEA, 2007

  16. The Welfare Gap – Africa Permanently in the Dark © OECD/IEA, 2007

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