Energy Challenges: Their Imminence, Scale, Impact and Mitigation

1. Energy Challenges: Their Imminence, Scale, Impact and Mitigation Sanjay. V. Khare Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Toledo, Toledo, OH-43606 http://astro1.panet.utoledo.edu/~khare/ Acknowledgements Funding: NSF, DARPA, DOE, WPAFB, PVIC from Sate of Ohio, Data and Slides: Gratitude and thanks to many fellow scientists Presentation: My student Shandeep Voggu Themes of this Discussion 1. Peak Oil Curve, EROEI 2. Wealth and Energy 3. Good life re-definition

2. Steps • Surprise and Shock • Denial of Problem • Anger • Depression • Acceptance or Surrender • Adaptation and Creative Action Sequence of Emotional Reactions

3. Four Distinct Crises

4. Scale of consumption, 1 Q = 1018 J 446 quads = 4.46  1017 BTU = 12.3  1025 kW-hour = 14  1012 Watt-year = 14 TW-yr = 4.46  1020 J

5. Global energy allocation by source Oil will peak in -1 to +5 years Gas will peak in 10 to 15 years Coal will peak in 15 to 20 years The Global Energy Mix in 2005

6. Peak Total Energy Total Energy Use, 1965 to 2050, (Courtesy: Paul Chefurka)

7. PEAK OIL • (and the unfolding energy crisis) • What is Peak Oil? • What are the consequences? • What can we do about it?

8. Fuel Prices Yesterday Today … Tomorrow? 1955 2005

9. Oil originates from the decomposition of microorganisms that got buried under geologic formations in the sea millions of years ago. In some cases the sea retreated, which explains why oil is also found on land.

10. -Oil was a gift from nature. -It took millions of years to produce -When it’s gone, it’s gone forever

11. Before the first oil well was dug inPennsylvania in 1859, Nature had made about two trillion barrels of oil and scattered it unevenly around the world. By 2006 we’ve used up about 0.96 trillion. In other words we’re near the half-way point. “Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage”, Kenneth S. Deffeyes

12. An oil well isn’t like a car’s fuel tank Gasoline use 0 time • With a car you can drive at full speed until the moment you run out of fuel. • That’s because your tank is a hollow cavity. The fuel fills the bottom of the tank and there’s nothing preventing it from being pumped out.

13. But an oil well isn’t a hollow cavity Click • It’s a large deposit of stones or sandstone sandwiched between two layers of impervious rock. The hollow spaces between the stones or sand are filled with thick and viscous oil. • A pipe is lowered into the mixture of oil and stones or sand and the oil is slowly pumped up. It takes time for oil to ooze from zones of high concentration to the zone of low concentration near the pipe.

14. In order to extract the oil from an oil field, a large number of wells are drilled

15. An oil field yields its contents over the years, something like this. Then the flow slows down gradually. An oil field empties rapidly at the start and yields lots of oil. Towards the end the flow eases to a trickle.

16. Contrast with car fuel tank Gasoline use 0 time When you plot the production of an aggregate of oil fields, it approximates a bell curve Top of the curve Mid point 1st half 2nd half

17. The top of the bell curve is what petroleum experts refer to as the oil peak or peak oil. Remember that we’ve used up almost half of the world’s oil. When we reach the half-way point on a bell curve, we embark upon the decline. …and from then on, oil production will decline year after year… http://www.oilcrisis.com/

18. The Hubbert Peak In 1956 Hubbert, using mathematical models, predicted that the oil extraction for the US lower 48 states would peak in 1970 http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/

19. Many oil fields, countries, and oil companies have already peaked. • The US peaked in 1970. • 53 of 68 oil producing countries are in decline.

20. Oil discoveries in the US peaked- then 40 years later production peaked The US lower 48 states Adapted from Collin Campbell, University of Clausthal Conference, Dec 2000

21. Discoveries: Total oil and Giant Fields Source: Fredrick Robelius, Giant Oil Fields the Highway to Oil, 2007

22. Discoveries getting smaller

23. US oil production peaked in 1970. It now produces < 60% of its peak! If the world follows the US pattern: …theworld would peak soon Adapted from: Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist

24. Per year oil consumed = 1 mile3 = 50 years of power of each of these!! Coal Hydro Wind Nuclear Solar Source: H. Goldstein and A. Sweet, IEEE Spectrum Online, Jan. 2007.

25. Oil has high energy per unit mass! • 1 gallon = 37.63 kW-hr = 32408.3 Food-cal = 11 able-bodied young men working a full day. • World yearly consumption • 31 GBa/yr = 4.216 Gtoe = 5.593 TW-yr/yr • US yearly consumption • 7.665 GBa/yr = 1.04244 Gtoe/yr = 1.382 TW-yr/yr = 3 times the US yearly electricity consumption. • 1 toe = 4.1868 x 1010 Joules; 1 Ba = 42 gallons = 0.136 toe • 1 Ba = 0.136 X 4.1836 X 1010 J = 5.6896 GJ = 1.5805 MW-hr = 65.85 kW-day • = 180.42 W-yr

26. And Prices are Spiking

27. Energy ReturnOn Energy Invested (EROEI) It refers to the ratio of: The amount of energy spent on getting the fuel: exploration, drilling, pumping, transportation and refining The amount of energy in the fuel: Either gasoline, diesel, kerosene, etc. AND “The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg

28. Energy Return On Energy Invested is diminishing as we resort to going after the hard-to-get oil: • Before 1950 it was about 100 to 1 • In the 1970s it was down to 30 to 1 • Now (2005) it’s about 10 to 1 • The Tar Sands have an EROEI of about 4 to 1 “The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg

29. Net Surplus Energy (NSE) TM = Total mass of energy providing material e.g., oil, coal, gas, wind turbine, PV modules EPM = Energy produced per unit mass NSE = TM X EPM (Naive Calculation) Correct Calculation EROEI= Energy Returned on Energy Invested = NSE = TM x EPM x EROEI = TM x EPM x We are running out of both TM and EROEI

30. If the world follows the US pattern: …the world would peak soon Adapted from: Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist

31. There Are No More Giant Oil Fields Being Discovered • In spite of advanced exploration technology we are finding smaller and smaller oil fields • 4 fields (giants) out of 4000 produce 10% of crude today • They are all in decline! • 125 of 4000 total produce 50% of crude today!

32. …for each barrel of oil that is being discovered We’re consuming 4 barrels… “The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg

33. Exploration doesn’t pay anymore Since 2000, the cost of finding and developing new sources of oil has risen about 15% annually. In 2003 oil companies spent $8 billion on exploration and discovered $4 billion in new reserves.* * Thomas Homer Dixon and Julio Friedmann, N.Y. Times, 25 Mar 2005 ** John S. Herold consulting firm

34. There’s no more spare capacity in the world supply Spare capacity = how much extra oil can be produced within 30 days notice and maintained for 90 days Adapted from “The Oil Age is Over”, Matt Savinar

35. Spurious OPEC Reserve Revisions

36. Peak Total Energy Total Energy Use, 1965 to 2050, (Courtesy: Paul Chefurka)

37. Summary about Supply • We will soon reach peak oil in (-1 to 5 years) • After that we will have less energy for transportation every year than the previous year. This will go on indefinitely! • Net total surplus energy for all uses will peak in 10 to 20 years • After that we will have less energy every year than the previous year. This will go on indefinitely!

38. PEAK OIL • Part 2 • What are the consequences? • Extremely Serious!

39. We will soon reach the point where we can’t pump out enough to keep up with demand [Even if demand is constant!]. Then we go intoPERMANENT, IRREVERSIBLEdecline!

40. Oil is so versatile… The petrochemical industry can refine oil into many different fuels and products. Gas Naphtha Gasoline Kerosene Diesel Lubricants http://science.howstuffworks.com

41. Including plastics, textiles, pharmaceuticals, paints, dies, asphalt No easy scalable substitute for oil

44. Tourism only exists because cheap oil is available

45. Impact: Economic, Social and Cultural ==> Steady or Shrinking Economy • Growth Economics • Industries • Tourism • Entertainment (movies in theaters, sports, theme parks, shopping) • Restaurants • Transportation (cars, trucks, oil-ships vs. electric (trains and cars), sail-ships) • Banking • Finance • Housing (Suburban long commute vs. urban walking) • Farming, Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Lumbering, Energy equipment • Family Structure • Grandparent-Parent-Child relationship • Husband-Wife relationship • Neighbor-Neigbor relationship (less house mobility)

46. Resource Wars for Oil

47. Fossil Fuel and Agriculture • Farming “is an annual artificial catastrophe, and it requires the equivalent of three or four tons of TNT per acre for a modern American farm. Iowa's fields require the energy of 4,000 Nagasaki bombs every year.” 1 1 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005. Mr. Manning was referring to the growing of the world’s major grain crops - corn, rice and wheat.

48. Fossil Fuel and Agriculture • On average, the food industry uses 10 calories of fossil fuel energy to produce 1 calorie of food. • For pork, it’s 68 calories for 1 calorie on your plate. • For beef, it’s 35 calories for 1 calorie on your plate. 1 1 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005.

49. Population ? First Oil Well OIL (1857)

50. PEAK OIL • Part 3 • What can we do about it?