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2030 Transit-Oriented Development Scenario: Travel Model Results

2030 Transit-Oriented Development Scenario: Travel Model Results. Presentation to the TPB Citizen Advisory Committee April 14, 2005 Regional Mobility and Accessibility Study Don McAuslan for Mark Moran Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments. TodScenTravMod2005-04-14.ppt.

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2030 Transit-Oriented Development Scenario: Travel Model Results

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  1. 2030 Transit-Oriented Development Scenario:Travel Model Results Presentation to the TPB Citizen Advisory Committee April 14, 2005 Regional Mobility and Accessibility Study Don McAuslan for Mark Moran Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments TodScenTravMod2005-04-14.ppt

  2. TOD Scenario: What is it? • Land use: TOD land use • Places more of the region’s future household and job growth around current and planned Metrorail stations, commuter rail stations or other transit centers • Derived from Round 6.4 land activity forecasts • Transportation network: TOD network Presentation to the TPB CAC

  3. TOD land use: Households • Assumes a shift of 125,000 households (35% of the forecast 2010 to 2030 growth, but only 5.2% of the total 2030 HHs) Presentation to the TPB CAC

  4. TOD land use: Jobs • Assumes a shift of 150,000 jobs (19% of the forecast 2010 to 2030 growth, but only 3.6% of the total 2030 employment) Presentation to the TPB CAC

  5. Transportation network: Fixed guideway improvements • Heavy rail (Metrorail, commuter rail) • Light rail (LRT) • Bus rapid transit (BRT) • Transitway (indicates BRT or LRT) Presentation to the TPB CAC

  6. Transportation network: 2005 Presentation to the TPB CAC

  7. Transportation network: 2030 CLRP Presentation to the TPB CAC

  8. Transportation network: 2030 CLRP+ • CLRP+ assumes no capital improvements, only enhancements to transit service • Most significant service enhancement: the lifting of the 2005 transit constraint through the DC core • CLRP+ is the baseline network Presentation to the TPB CAC

  9. Transportation network: TOD, Map 1 of 2 Presentation to the TPB CAC

  10. Transportation network: TOD, Map 2 of 2 Presentation to the TPB CAC

  11. Map legend: Fixed guideway extensions in TOD network Presentation to the TPB CAC

  12. 2030 CLRP+ vs TOD:Fixed guideway miles • Fixed guideway miles have increased from 412 to 691 miles (67%), but most of the increase is in the transitway category, which includes BRT/LRT lines that may operate in mixed traffic, separate right-of-way, or a combination of the two. • Metrorail miles increase by 23% and commuter rail miles by 12%. Source: rail_link_miles2.xls, staprotp.rpt Presentation to the TPB CAC

  13. Transit Stations: How many and where? Presentation to the TPB CAC

  14. TOD model results • Compared to the 2030 CLRP+, the 2030 TOD scenario results in 109,000 more transit trips per day (7.9% increase) • 58,000 due to TOD network • 51,000 due to TOD land use • Regional transit mode share goes from 5.7% to 6.3% (a small increase, but the largest increase of all the scenarios tested to date) • Home-based work mode share goes from 20.5% to 22.1% (again, the highest of any of the scenarios tested to date) Presentation to the TPB CAC

  15. TOD model results, 2 • VMT drops by about 1% (from 149.8 million to 148.3 million vehicle miles of travel) • HBW walk and bike trips increased 6.4%, from 253,000 to 270,000 • Carpool commuters: There is a drop of 13,000 daily trips (2.0%) • AM congestion: the number of AM lane miles with a volume-to-capacity ratio > 1.0 drops by 4.6% (from 2,560 to 2,440 miles) Presentation to the TPB CAC

  16. Households Within ½-Mile of a Transit Station:2030 CLRP+, Transit Oriented Development, Higher Household Growth Total Households, CLRP+ and TOD: 2.4 Million Total Households, Higher Household Scenario: 2.6 Million Presentation to the TPB CAC

  17. Employment Within ½-Mile of a Transit Station:2030 CLRP+, Transit Oriented Development, & Higher Household Growth Total Employment in 2030: 4.2 Million Presentation to the TPB CAC

  18. Acknowledgments • Program Manager: Bob Griffiths • Travel model development and overview: Ron Milone and Jim Hogan • Network development: Bob Snead, John Bethea, Wanda Hamlin, Joe Davis, Bill Bacon • Mapping and technical support: Meseret Seifu, Don McAuslan • Travel modeling: Mark Moran Presentation to the TPB CAC

  19. Thank you Questions?

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