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Overview of CIRA and NESDIS Global TC Services

Overview of CIRA and NESDIS Global TC Services. For The WMO Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Course September 14, 2011. Presented by John Knaff NOAA/NESDIS Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch Fort Collins, CO USA. Purpose.

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Overview of CIRA and NESDIS Global TC Services

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  1. Overview of CIRA and NESDIS Global TC Services For The WMO Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Course September 14, 2011 Presented by John Knaff NOAA/NESDIS Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch Fort Collins, CO USA

  2. Purpose • This presentation provides a brief overview of operational services available from NOAA/NESDIS and CIRA/RAMMB that are applicable for monitoring and forecasting Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  3. Outline • NESDIS Services (operational / real-time) • Center/intensity fixes • TC surface winds • Rainfall • Total Precipitable Water (TPW) • CIRA Services (real-time) • Genesis • TC realtime • Imagery • Heat Content • Experimental products WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  4. NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch • Small group of satellite analysts co-located with several National Centers (OPC, HPC, EMC) • They provide tropical cyclone fixes • Subjective Dvorak • Microwave • Monitor several automated products. • Provide other services (e.g., volcanoes) WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  5. NESDIS Satellite Services Division http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/index.html Positions/Intensities Rainfall WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  6. Center/Intensity Fixes • Center fixes with Dvorak T-numbers • http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html • Active storms near the top • Southern Hemisphere information near the bottom • Archive of past storms near the top. Position T-number/Current Intensity WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  7. Center/Intensity Fixes • Microwave fixes • http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mipositions.html • Active storms near the top • Southern Hemisphere information near the bottom Position Source WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  8. Intensity (objective, automated) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/adt.html Nicely compliments subjective Dvorak by providing more frequent estimates of position and intensity…. (hourly) WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  9. Surface Winds • Multi-platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis (MTCSWA) • http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.html Available ~ 1 hour after synoptic hour WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  10. Surface Winds (MTCSWA) What it is What it is NOT An intensity fix A position fix • Best estimate of TC wind structure (1-minute @ 10 m over land and water) and resulting MSLP based upon • Current intensity, latitude, and the Infrared satellite imagery (analog winds; Mueller et al. (2006)) • Scatterometry • Cloud/Feature Drift Winds (> 600 hPa) • Balanced winds calculated from the AMSU Microwave Sounder AMSU refers to the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  11. Surface Winds (MTCSWA) Example Weaknesses Estimating small radii of maximum winds (RMWs) Estimating multiple RMW Weak systems are represented as too symmetric Hurricane force winds are too extensive for very strong systems (> 95 kt, 1-minute) WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  12. Surface Winds • Ocean wind vectors/speeds • ASCAT • http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php • WindSAT • http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/WindSATData.php • SSMI (Speed) • http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/SSMIData.php WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  13. Surface Wind (OVW) WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  14. Rainfall Potential • Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (ETRaP) • http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  15. Rainfall Potential (eTRaP) WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  16. WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  17. TPW http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/bTPW/index.html

  18. From CIRA • CIRA Services (real-time) • Genesis • TC realtime • Imagery • Heat Content • Experimental products WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  19. Experimental Genesis Product • Global 24-h genesis probabilities • North and South Atlantic • North/South West Pacific • North/South East Pacific • North/South Indian Ocean • Must be understood… probabilities are low, but can exceed 30 times climatology. • http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/ WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  20. Most Important Predictors • Same predictors most important in all basins • However, rank of importance varies N. Indian Ocean N.W. Pacific N.E. Pacific N. Atlantic S. Atlantic S. Indian Ocean S. Pacific 64th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

  21. Main Page WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  22. Each Basin WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  23. Each Basin WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  24. S. Hemisphere (2009)

  25. Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) Product – S. Hemisphere 2010 Verification Example: Cumulative TCFP formation probabilities over SW Pacific sub-basin (blue), climatology (black) and observed times within 24hrs of TC formation (red circles). Red Circles on Peaks  Hits Peaks without red circles  False Alarms Red circles not on peaks  Misses

  26. CIRA/RAMMB TC-Realtime http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/ What it is What it is not Official Operational Tied to the RMSC forecasts/advisories (save Miami/Honolulu) • Real-time global tropical cyclone information portal • Current storm details (JTWC) • Recent histories • Imagery • Special products • Experimental products • Historical archive WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  27. Currently Active Storms WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  28. Active Storm WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  29. Some Useful Products Infrared Image Loops AMSU Image Loops Also 2-km version with a BD enhancement applied for Dvorak analysis SH192011 - Tropical Cyclone BUNE WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  30. Some Useful Products AMSU-based Intensities AMSU-based shear / deep layer mean flow. Examples from ATU (2011)

  31. Some Useful Products Oceanic Heat Content Water Vapor Imagery Courtesy of NRL (NCODA –based) WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  32. Summary • This presentation provides a brief overview of operational services available from NOAA/NESDIS and CIRA/RAMMB that are applicable for monitoring and forecasting Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones • A list of URLs discussed within are provided on the next slide. WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

  33. URLs Discussed http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/index.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mipositions.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/adt.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.html http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/WindSATData.php http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/SSMIData.php http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/ http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/ WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

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