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A brief Overview of the ME Offshore Market Time to invest?. Dubai 7 March 2012 Geir Sjurseth, Managing Director, DVB Bank SE. Introducing DVB. Market Approach. Global Presence Through 13 Offices. Key Facts. DVB Overview. $ 27.3bn / EUR 20.7bn Total Loan Book. A+
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A brief Overview of the ME Offshore Market Time to invest? Dubai 7 March 2012 Geir Sjurseth, Managing Director, DVB Bank SE
Introducing DVB Market Approach Global Presence Through 13 Offices Key Facts DVB Overview $ 27.3bn / EUR 20.7bn Total Loan Book A+ Long Term Debt (Standard & Poor’s) • European Company (SE), listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange • 95% owned by DZ Group (largest co-operative banking group in Germany) • Over 500 professionals, all specialising in transport finance • Over 500 clients worldwide, all active in the transport sector EUR 1.16bn Market Capitalisation A-1 Short Term Debt (Standard & Poor’s) EUR 84.6m / 98.0m Net Profit Sep. 2011 / Sep. 2010 19.3% Basel II Core Capital Ratio Shipping Aviation Land Transport Bergen/Oslo London Cardiff Hamburg Rotterdam Frankfurt/Main Tokyo Zurich New York Piraeus Singapore Curaçao Structured Asset Financing Advisory and M&A Asset Management Risk Distribution Loan Participations Asset & Market Research AMERICA EUROPE ASIA / PACIFIC
DVB Shipping Finance Division - Seven Global Sector Groups 1 Offshore Support Group (AHTS, PSV, subsea, diving and heavy lift vessels, others) 2 Offshore Drilling and Production Group(jack-ups, drill ships, semi-subs, FPSO, FSO, FPU) 3 Crude Oil & LNG Tanker Group (crude oil and Liquefied Natural Gas tankers) 4 Chemical, LPG and Product Tanker Group(chemical, specialist, Liquefied Petroleum Gas, product and asphalt/bitumen tankers) 5 Dry Bulk Group(barges, dry cargo, combination and bulk carriers) Container Business Group (container vessels, container boxes, car carriers, reefers) 6 7 Cruise & Ferry Group (ferries, yachts, ocean/river cruise, RoRo’s)
Overview of the Offshore Support Sector Offshore Support Segments • Anchor Handling Tug (AHT) • Anchor Handling, Tug & Supply (AHTS) • Platform Supply Vessel (PSV) • Crew Boat • Stand-by Vessel • Emergency Response Rescue Vessel (ERRV) • Utility Vessel Supply • Diving Support Vessel (DSV) • Lay Support Vessel • ROV Support Vessel • Lay Barge • Reel Lay Vessel • Well Intervention Vessels • Derrick Barge • Pipe Carrier Subsea & Construction • Float on / Float off (Flo / Flo) • Lift on / Lift off (Lo / Lo) • Roll on / Roll off (Ro / Ro) • Semi-submersible Heavy Lift Barge Heavy Lift Accommodation • Jack-up Platforms • Semisubmersible Platforms • Mono-hull Vessels • Accommodation Barges • Hybrids • Seismic Survey Vessel (SSV) • Electro Magnetic Survey Vessel Seismic Supply & Anchor Handling Seabed Installation Transport Crew Accommodation Hydrocarbon Exploration
DVB’s Offshore Support Group Offshore Support Group Financing Advisory and M&A Shipping / Offshore Investment Fund S&P and Newbuild Finance Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) Equity Investments Sale & Leasebacks, Acquisition Finance and Mezzanine Finance Debt & Equity Capital Raisings Sale & Leasebacks Ability to finance Mexican and Brazilian flag vessels Ship Sale & Purchase Structured Equity and Mezzanine Finance Restructuring
Global Offshore Market Overview Crude Oil Prices Global E&P Capital Expenditure USD bn Oil Prices & Energy Demand E&P Capex Rig Market OSV Demand • OSV Market Demand Chain: Key demand drivers remain in place ...
Delivery Schedule PSV Delivery Schedule (December 2011) AHTS Delivery Schedule (December 2011) • The orderbook for PSVs represents 30% of the existing fleet in dwt term • Most PSV orders are placed for vessels greater than 2,000 dwt (85%) • Delivery of 26 PSVs >4,000 dwt of total 56 in 2011, compared to 14 of total 82 in 2010 • The orderbook for AHTS represents 13% of the existing fleet in bhp terms • Particularly in the small size categories the orderbook seems too large • Delivery of 23 AHTSs >10,000bhp of total 176 in 2011, compared to 17 of total 261 in 2010 … but recent deliveries and remaining orderbook will continue to put pressure on utilisation
Global Outlook 2012+ Prospects By Region and Vessel Type PSV (dwt) AHTS (bhp) Current market expectations favor sophisticated vessels • Source: DVB Research and Strategic Planning
What we’re seeing in the BANK market Operator/corporate - 2nd hand/NB contracting KSs - On the road again PIs – PE/equity raise • Strategic purchases of specialised vessels • Rush to contract large PSV NBs – is next thing AHTSs again? • Attractive yard terms with limited equity up front • Many new OSV players popping up going for 5150 AHTS and mid sized PSVs • Driven by perceived good investment returns, PSVs asset play • In many cases no industry sponsor • Look for 50-60% debt, good yard terms • Clearly speculative – to the detriment of industry operators • May not get financing • Driven by perceived good investment returns – low point in cycle, no employment. • Some time new entrants with colourful business plans • Can document large NB haircuts v market.. • Look for post del fin and sometimes also LC for pre del. • May not get financing
Options and availability of funding to OSV owners Means of CAPEX Outlook Comment • Company cash flow/vessel mortgage capacity Still under pressure Still under pressure • Bank debt Applies only to a few • Capital markets Very selective • Private equity Under utilised but peak is passed • ECAs If local content • Chinese banks..
Indexes Since 2006 – the trough is behind us but.. Oslo Stock Exchange Indicators
Some regional companies Conventional & local/ regional Specialised & regional/ global C.S. Offshore DMC
Key headlines or headaches? The Middle East OSV industry • World wide oversupply still a problem – more than 430 OSV NBs to be delivered by 2015 • Middle East - 314 AHTSs and very few AHTS NB orders (5-7000bhp) • 74 vessels >30 years, the world’s 2nd largest old vintage fraction.. • Still downward pressure on utilisation and rates – contrary to rest of world • IRAN – a big headache • Many players and no consolidation • Recourse and vessel employment is critical to banks IHS/Maersk Jan 2012
Consolidation Prospects Offshore Support Industry Characteristics Fragmented OSV Universe OSV Growth Private Equity Interest & Pricing • >150 companies - 25% listed – Market Cap of [$30m - $2.5bn] • Many are controlled by founding families • CAPEX needs, positive energy market outlook • NBs & resales only • Sales of older vessels at profits • Relatively & surprisingly few M&A deals to spur scale • Growing number of investors attracted to an energy sustainable industry • But are they prepared? • US companies’ interest in high tech Norwegian companies • Driven by cash flow multiple pricing in rising markets • Attractive returns are achievable Traditional Consolidation Drivers Growth New Markets Scale Bargaining Power • Access to right tonnage • Access to employment in cabotage markets • Reduced OPEX / Crew costs though operational mobility • Reduced cost of funds • Impact on rates Unlikely
Some Response to Consolidation Drivers... Drivers Examples Prospects • Fleet Growth / New Tonnage • Fleet acquisitions or newbuilds often a cleaner way to grow than corporate acquisitions. Acquisition to get access to new/young fleet • Jones Act/modernfleet • Strengthen Regional Position • Makes sense in regions with regulatory barriers such as Brazil • Also a way of acquiring people in target regions • Enter Offshore • Increasingly seen as a good diversification from conventional shipping sectors which are experiencing tough times Restis Group • Private Equity • Typically do not like asset heavy companies • Liquid assets with contracts / listable companies are of interest
And further fragmentation of the OSV industry New kids on the block ... Lack of Barriers to Entry • Little age limitation on vessels imposed by charterers • Oil majors encouraging more competition by awarding contract to new entrants • Is industry, or part of, getting commoditized? • 10+ new OSV players entered the market during 2011, most with limited or no track record Newbuild over Acquisition Winning contracts with oil majors • Owners prefer newbuildings over corporate acquisitions • Long term contracts with oil majors such as Petrobras Ignore Benefits of Consolidation • How will next downturn impact the industry?
Summary • MARKET - While the cycle trough is behind us – it’s a fragile recovery • STRATEGY - ME seems to be for the ME – less prone to regionalisation/globalisation • OPERATORS – many and fragmented, easy rate target for the charterers • RISK – vulnerable to weaker prospects • Local industry needs equity to secure current operations and CAPEX • More “dynamic” strategy/consolidation discussions need to take place • ME owners need to find ways to better integrate, take advantage of the greater market • Recovery is on – timing is now!
Thank you for your attention! geir.sjurseth@dvbbank.com