Generic Risk Assessment Approach for Multiple Stressors in Agriculture

1. A generic risk assessment approach for multiple stressors Geoff Frampton, Guy Poppy, Jamie Sutherland Ecology & Evolutionary Biology Group School of Biological Sciences University of Southampton, UK Funded by

2. Proposal (1): all new (or changed) agricultural practices should be assessed for risk Proposal (2): agricultural risk assessment should contribute to an assessment of agricultural sustainability Background Currently, agricultural risks are assessed routinely only for GM crops and pesticides But other agricultural practices are more environmentally damaging (UK Advisory Committee on Releases to the Environment (ACRE), 2006)

3. 1) How to assess risks of new or changed agricultural practices ?

4. Source – pathway – receptor principle Pathway Source Receptor Response (exposure) effect

5. REGIONAL risk assessment– e.g. invasive species in marine coastal area (Landis 2003) Imported invasive species 7 receiving habitats 9 predicted impacts invasion effect invasion effects 7 mechanistic models 23 mechanistic models Risk Analysis 24 (4) 2003 Source – pathway – receptor principle Pathway Source Receptor Response (exposure) effect

6. SPATIALLY EXPLICIT risk assessment– e.g. military landscape (Andersen et al. 2004) Spatially explicit hazards Indicator species Responses effects Co-occurrence Risk Analysis 24 (5) 2004 Source – pathway – receptor principle Pathway Source Receptor Response (exposure) effect

7. TRAIT BASED risk assessment– e.g. arable farmland (Butler et al. 2007) Affected ecological resources Required ecological resources Responses Effects depend upon resilience Co-occurrence Science 315 (5810) 2007 Source – pathway – receptor principle Pathway Source Receptor Response (exposure) effect

8. Crop Hedgerow Summer Winter Summer Winter NEST SITES DIET HABITAT Trait-based risk assessment Ecological resources of farmland birds DIET HABITAT NEST SITES Summer Winter Summer Winter Soil inverts Soil inverts Crop Crop Epigeic inverts Epigeic inverts Margin Margin Margin Seeds Seeds Hedgerow Hedgerow Plant material Plant material Vertebrates Vertebrates Resources affected by agricultural change

9. Crop Hedgerow Summer Winter Summer Winter NEST SITES DIET HABITAT Trait-based risk assessment Ecological resources of farmland birds DIET HABITAT NEST SITES Summer Winter Summer Winter Soil inverts Soil inverts Crop Crop Epigeic inverts Epigeic inverts Margin Margin Margin 2 / 3 1 / 3 Seeds Seeds Hedgerow Hedgerow Plant material Plant material 1 / 5 2 / 5 Score = 1.6 Vertebrates Vertebrates Resources affected by agricultural change

10. Summer Winter Summer Winter NEST SITES DIET HABITAT Resources affected by change in sowing date Risk to corn bunting: Change from spring to autumn sown cereals Resources of corn bunting Miliaria calandra DIET HABITAT NEST SITES Summer Winter Summer Winter Invertebrates Seeds Crop Crop Seeds Crop Resources affected by change in sowing date

11. Summer Winter Summer Winter NEST SITES DIET HABITAT Resources affected by change in sowing date Risk to corn bunting: Change from spring to autumn sown cereals Resources of corn bunting Miliaria calandra DIET HABITAT NEST SITES Summer Winter Summer Winter Invertebrates Seeds Crop Crop Seeds Crop Score = 4 1 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 Resources affected by change in sowing date

12. Summer Winter Summer Winter NEST SITES DIET HABITAT Resources affected by change in sowing date Resources affected by change in sowing date Risk to corn bunting: Increased agrochemical inputs Resources of corn bunting Miliaria calandra DIET HABITAT NEST SITES Summer Winter Summer Winter Invertebrates Seeds Crop Crop Seeds Crop

13. Summer Winter Summer Winter NEST SITES DIET HABITAT Resources affected by change in sowing date Resources affected by change in sowing date Risk to corn bunting: Increased agrochemical inputs Resources of corn bunting Miliaria calandra DIET HABITAT NEST SITES Summer Winter Summer Winter Invertebrates Seeds Crop Crop Seeds Crop

14. Risk to corn bunting: Increased agrochemical inputs Resources of corn bunting Miliaria calandra DIET HABITAT NEST SITES Summer Winter Summer Winter Invertebrates Seeds Crop Crop Seeds Crop 2 / 2 1 / 1 Score = 2 Summer Winter Summer Winter NEST SITES DIET HABITAT Resources affected by change in sowing date Resources affected by change in sowing date

15. Butterflies (24 spp): Population growth = 7.212 – 3.525 × risk score (p = 0.001) Birds (62 spp): Population growth = 0.009 – 0.0064 × risk score (p < 0.001) Broadleaf plants (190 spp): Population growth = 0.008 – 0.004 × risk score (p = 0.001) Bumblebees (14 spp) Mammals (44 spp) Risk score Possibly declining Stable / increasing Possibly declining Stable / increasing Declining Declining Validation of riskscores for past agricultural changes (1970-2000) (spring to autumn sowing, increased agrochemicals, loss of non-cropped habitat, land drainage, switch from hay to silage, grassland intensification)

16. Predict population trend Individual species Predict conservation status Interpreting output from trait-based risk assessment

17. Predict population trend Individual species Predict conservation status Communities Example: change from spring to autumn cereals Proportion of species Interpreting output from trait-based risk assessment

18. Trait-based risk assessment Limitations / open questions Needs monitoring data for validation Applicability to ecological functions?

19. 2) How to integrate risk assessment into assessment of agricultural sustainability ?

20. Problems: No clear guidance on how to incorporate risk assessment into sustainability assessment Sustainability assessment studies have focused on developing indicator frameworks rather than implementing approaches Indicator frameworks are often inconsistent across studies & countries Same data collection exercises are being inefficiently repeated

21. 1. Efficacy To be scientifically defensible, each assessment should: Ensure transparency Identify uncertainty Permit audit Requires systematic approach with clear conceptual models linking sources, paths, receptors and effects 2. Inputs 3. Management 4. Persistence or invasiveness 5. Effects on environmental goods and services (biodiversity, soils, water, air, landscape, aesthetics 6. Latency and/or cumulative effects 7. Reversibility of effects 8. Potential for mitigation Draft matrix proposed by ACRE (2006) for assessing agricultural sustainability Trait – based risk assessment Trait – based benefits assessment ?

23. Open questions How (or whether) to incorporate functional endpoints How to proceed in absence of population trends information How to integrate into assessments of agricultural sustainability Leave with a thought about ACRE proposal….. Key points about integrating risk assessment into sustainability assessment