League of Women Voters Oregon May 16, 2014 OREGON VALUES and Tom Bowerman, PolicyInterative

2. League of Women Voters Oregon May 16, 2014 OREGON VALUES and Tom Bowerman, PolicyInterative

3. Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment nothing can fail. Without it nothing can succeed. – Abraham Lincoln

6. Three surveys; spaced 2 weeks apart; 198 questions S1: 3,971 respondents (1.6% MOE @ 95% confidence) S2: 1,958 respondents (2.2% MOE @ 95% confidence) S3: 1,865 respondents (2.3% MOE @ 95% confidence) 198 total questions – 1200 cross survey respondents Random sample, Telephone land+cell & Internet Employ quality controls for survey error & bias 5 regions: Eastern, Southern, Central, W.Valley, Metro

7. Survey Topic Modules Used in 2013 Oregon Project: Hopes and fears, likes and dislikes, what’s important – volunteered Policy priorities Worldviews & Culture Theory Education Healthcare Social Services Land use Jobs & Economy Environment Energy Philanthropy Demographics

8. This presentation of findings, observations and conclusions reflects the judgment of this presenter and not necessarily the views of the sponsoring organizations.

10. EDUCATION

11. S1 – Q 6-27 PUBLIC SERVICE PRIORITIES w/$$ Oregonians rank K-12 education #1 among 20 public services • 81% total “important” to support w/ taxes (58% “very important”) • #2: 79% Public Safety like fire & police • #3: 72% Clean air and clean water • #20: 43% Economic development through tax breaks and public subsidies

12. S2 - Q3 Why to you think Oregon might become a worse place to live? (open response) Over population (18%) Increased taxation (15%) Poor government leadership (15%) Lack of jobs, unemployment (11%)

13. S3.Q37 10 Years: Students will better learn the lessons of citizenship, work, and family 21% 83%

14. 10 Years: Schools will substantially improve student knowledge of money management and household finance S3.Q36 27% 88%

15. 10 Years: Parents will take greater responsibility and be more involved in their children’s learning S3.Q38 20% 90%

16. Health & Health Care

17. How desirable or undesirable? Wellness and healthy living replaces the treatment of illnesses as the primary goal and focus of the healthcare industry S2-21 77% 14%

18. S2-22 (How desirable or undesirable?) Doctors’ fees are regulated based on providing preventative care and good health rather than treating poor health 64% 23%

19. S2-23 (How desirable or undesirable?) People are held accountable for high risk behaviors like smoking, drugs, and lack of exercise through higher insurance premiums 72% 22%

20. Oregon’s Tax System

21. S2-10 Taxes are necessary to pay for the common good 86% 10%

22. There has been some discussion in Oregon recently about the level of public services and the cost to taxpayers. Which of the following statements is closest to how you feel? (S2-5)

23. S2-5 Do you believe a change is needed in Oregon’s tax system at this time?

24. Add picture Oregonians care about their Environment

25. What do you personally value about living in Oregon? (84% refer to environmental traits from ~ 3300 comments) S1-Q2 Open

26. Which statement comes closest to your view? S1-Q28 n=2971 Statement A: Economic Growth should be given priority even if the environment suffers to some extent Statement B: Protection of the environment should be given priority even at the risk of slowing economic growth Color Tone Key: Light: Lean towards Dark: Feel strongly

27. Which statement comes closest to your view? (statements always rotate) S1-Q27 Statement A: Economic growth should be given priority even if the environment suffers to some extent Statement B: Protection of the environment should be given priority even at the risk of slowing economic growth

28. Which statement comes closest to your view? S1-Q28 n=2971 Statement A: We should invest more in roads for cars Statement B: We should invest more in public transit Tone Key: Light: Lean towards Dark: Feel strongly

29. Which statement comes closest to your view? (statements always rotate) S1-Q27 Statement A: We should invest more in roads for cars Statement B: We should invest more in public transit

30. Which statement comes closest to your view? S1-Q32 Statement A: Climate change requires us to change our way of life such as driving less or living more simply Statement B: If climate change becomes a problem we can deal with it later

31. Which statement comes closest to your view? (statements always rotate) S1-Q27 Statement A: Climate change requires us to change our way of life such as driving less or living more simply Statement B: If climate change becomes a problem we can deal with it later

32. Revisiting Common Assumptions about Climate Change: Is it human caused? Is it a hoax? Will it be bad? Will public policy fix it?

33. HERE ARE SOME STATEMENTS PEOPLE MAKE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE.INDICATE YOUR LEVEL OF AGREEMENT OR DISAGREEMENT FOREACH STATEMENT. 5:1 75% 15% 71% 4:1 1 : <2 1:5 16% 78%

34. Public Support & Confidence inPublic Policy

35. S3-Q46 (How desirable or undesirable?) There should be stronger government policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 57% 22%

36. (How desirable or undesirable; with $$ and $ cost implications) A carbon emission tax established to discourage greenhouse gas emissions and used to invest in green jobs and technologies S3-Q48 50% 26%

37. S2-17 Economic growth will be more important than addressing climate change 59% 37% 40% 19%

38. S3-Q21 Oregonians from diverse backgrounds will find common ground and work together to make progress addressing the critical issues we face as a state Combined Very/Somewhat Responses

39. Public Confidence:Private Industry, Science & Technology

40. S3-47 (How much Agree – Disagree with:) Science and human ingenuity will solve climate change with little need to change our way of life 61% 19%

41. The role of individual behaviors in absence of policy action:“When the people lead, the leaders will follow.” Gandhi

42. HERE ARE SOME STATEMENTS PEOPLE MAKE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE.INDICATE YOUR LEVEL OF AGREEMENT OR DISAGREEMENT FOR EACH STATEMENT. 81% 6 : 1 14% 20% 1 : 2.5 48% 20% 1 : 4 74%

43. Thinking at the Individual LevelImpact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyIPATConsumption Behaviors

44. Tons CO2 Emissions per Capita per Year Compared Emissions: Tons CO2/capita World Resources Institute (Source:Nationmaster) Sustainable estimate range, multiple sources: PI citations on file Import – Export Emissions: https://carnegiescience.edu/news/carbon_emissions_outsourced_developing_countries

45. Tons CO2 Emissions per Capita per Year Compared – Consumption Based 19.7 t with imports 5.2 t w.o exports Emissions: Tons CO2/capita World Resources Institute (Source:Nationmaster) Sustainable estimate range, multiple sources: PI citations on file Import – Export Emissions: https://carnegiescience.edu/news/carbon_emissions_outsourced_developing_countries

46. Public Opinion aboutConsumption Behaviors

48. Political Party Ideology ComparisonCompare - Global Warming : Consume lessPI November 2008 n=400 V4A/V1A (% Combined Agreement of Sector)

49. Cultural Ideology Comparison Christian Conservative & EnvironmentalistCompare Global Warming / Consume lessPI November 2008 n=400 V4A/V1A (expressed as % Agreement of Sector)

50. With roughly two-thirds of consumers saying they care, why is ethical consumption so minimal and so rarely transformative? - Dana O’Rourke,book review of Market for Virtue by David Vogle