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Scope of Task AG-01 (from 12-15 Workplan rev2 )

GEO Work Plan Symposium 2012 Task AG 01 Global Agricultural Monitoring and Early Warning Chris Justice, Ag 01 Task Coordinator Joao Soares, Geo. Sec. Ag 01 POC. Scope of Task AG-01 (from 12-15 Workplan rev2 )

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Scope of Task AG-01 (from 12-15 Workplan rev2 )

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  1. GEO Work Plan Symposium 2012 Task AG 01 Global Agricultural Monitoring and Early WarningChris Justice, Ag 01 Task CoordinatorJoao Soares, Geo. Sec. Ag 01 POC

  2. Scope of Task AG-01 (from 12-15 Workplan rev2) • Increased use of Earth Observing (EO) capabilities and supporting applications systems to produce timely, objective, reliable, and transparent agricultural information at national, regional and global levels. • Improved agricultural risk assessment, early warning for food security. • Expanded mapping and monitoring of cropland distribution and agricultural land use change, through periodic regional and global assessments. • Phase 1 Implementation of G20 GEOGLAM

  3. The GEO Global Agricultural Monitoring (Structure for Ag 0703 >Restructuring to new work plan Ag 01 ) Task Co-Leads: Chris Justice, University of Maryland, (USA) * Olivier Leo, Joint Research Centre Ispra, (E.C,) Derrick Williams, USDA FAS, (USA) Wu Bingfang, IRSA, CAS, Beijing, (China) Task Executive Director: Jai Singh Parihar, ISRO, (India) GEO Secretariat POC: Joao Soares, GEO Secretariat, (Brazil) JECAM Comp. Lead: Ian Jarvis, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Pierre Defourny, UCL (Belgium) PAY Comp. Lead: Inbal Becker-Reshef, UMD, Meng Jihua, IRSA (China) Cropland Mapping Lead: Steffen Fritz, IIASA, (Austria) GEOGLAM Lead: Pascal Kosuth (France) CEOS GEO Ag POC: Prasad Thenkabail, USGS (USA) * NASA Applied Sciences supported (Brad Doorn, NASA POC)

  4. GEO Agriculture Monitoring CoP • Several global/regional scale agricultural monitoring systems in place – with common data needs, few common standards and protocols and inconsistent results • Most countries have a national agricultural monitoring system • GEO can facilitate coordination and provide value added on use of EO

  5. Expected Achievements by 2015 (3 years) Task Components • Complete Phase 1 Implementation of G20 GEOGLAM (GEO Global Agricultural Monitoring) • Complete Phase 1 of the Joint Experiments on Crop Assessment and Monitoring (JECAM) Task Cross Cutting Elements (from Ag 0703) – will be incorporated in GEOGLAM • Coordinated Data Initiatives for Global Agricultural Monitoring (CDIGAM). • Community of Practice Thematic and Regional strategic workshops (GLAMSS)

  6. Context for Improved Agricultural Monitoring • World prices of wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans rose 226% from 2002 2008 • Between June of 2010 and May 2011 price of wheat increased by over 80% • The recent price increases have pushed an additional 44 million people into poverty (FAO) • 2011 Horn of Africa drought left over 13 million in need of food aid (FAO) Wheat Monthly Crop Prices:2001-2011 Source: IMF (index Mundi) 2010-11 Russia drought 2007-2008 Drought Aust/Ukr US $ per Metric Ton April 2001 April 2002 April 2003 April 2004 April 2005 April 2006 April 2007 April 2008 April 2009 April 2010 April 2011

  7. The GEOGLAM Initiative: Project Elements • The G20 Cannes Summit (November 2011) endorsed Action Plan on Food Price and Volatility and Agriculture

  8. 2. The GEOGLAM Initiative : 2011-2012 advances International cooperation for the definition of GEOGLAM • 09/2011 Geneva : First GEOGLAM international Workshop (13 countries)ii • 09/2011 Nairobi : Present. to the 3rd Crop and Rangeland Monitoring Workshop • 11/2011 Istanbul : GEO VI Plenary Assembly • 01/2012 Geneva : GEOGLAM coord. Group meeting (w. AMIS) • 02/2012 Roma : Present. to the 1st meeting of the AMIS coord. Group • 02/2012 Canberra : International Workshop on crop monitoring • 03/2012 Mexico : Present. to XIIth “Foro de expectativas agropecuarias” • 03/2012 La Hoya : CEOS Strategic Implementation Team • 04/2012 Tokyo : GEOSS in the Asian Pacific Symposium + other regional and national meetings and presentations The GEOGLAM Workplan Submitted 2/12 • Strategic targets - Preliminary Budget • Work plan components - Linkage with AMIS • Governance

  9. The GEOGLAM Initiative: Project Elements 1. GLOBAL/ REGIONAL SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS Main producer countries, main crops 2. NATIONAL CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT for agricultural monitoring using Earth Observation 3. MONITORING COUNTRIES AT RISK Food security assessment 4. EO DATA COORDINATION (acquisition, availability, access) 5. METHOD IMPROVEMENT through R&D coordination 6. INFORMATION DISSEMINATION of Data and Products • GEOGLAM is a coordination initiative, aiming at providing key information on Agricultural production using Earth Observations through: • - supporting, strengthening and articulating existing efforts and • developing capacities and awareness at national, regional and global levels • providing coordinated input to the Agricultural Market Info. System (AMIS)

  10. Expected Achievements by 2015 • Example Phase 1 Implementation of G20 GEOGLAM (initiatives) • Coordinated crop forecast assessments (w. AMIS) • Coordinated ‘operational’ satellite acquisition and availability (w. CEOS and private industry) • Ensure satellite data continuity for agricultural monitoring and near real-time data (w. CEOS) • Improved data and products for global agric. monitoring • Targeted enhanced national capacity for use of EO (Crop Producer Countries and Countries at Risk) • Improved distribution of and access to African Raingauge data

  11. Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) hosted at the UN FAO

  12. Depicting the 2011-12 Drought in Mexico with Satellite Observations Time Series of Satellite Based Vegetation Index for 2011-2012 Season vs. Average Conditions Average conditions Vegetation Anomaly 26 June to 11 July 2011 (MODIS 16-Day Composite) 2011-12 season Below-average cumulative maize grain production in Mexico 2011/12 Maize production is 20% below average (2004-2010) according to Feb stats (Calculated for the last 12 months, April-March, of the añoagrícola) Vegetation Anomaly 30 Sept to 15 Oct 2011 (MODIS 16-Day Composite) Data Source: Servicio de Información Agroalimentaria y Pesquera (SIAP)

  13. Reporting Dissemination Data Dissemination Bulletin Dissemination • EU Delegations • National EW Agencies • Int. Institutions (FAO, …) Coordinated forecast and assessments (w. AMIS) • 2015 Target • Coordinated forecasts between global monitoring systems (e.g. USDA FAS, JRC MARS, IRSA Cropwatch, FAO GIEWS) and AMIS. • Near Term Target • Design workshop with AMIS and Pilot coordination initiated before end of 2012

  14. Coordinated ‘operational’ satellite acquisition (w. CEOS and private industry providers) • Ag 01 data needs are under discussion with CEOS and interested private providers - CEOS has agreed to support Ag 01 JECAM and consider GEOGLAM request (CEOS Lucca Statement) - we are working to develop an active partnership • GEOGLAM Data Requirements Workshop planned for mid-July 2012 - Issues include higher frequency observations, crop calendars, cloud cover – will need both optical and microwave, coarse/moderate/fine data) • Work with CEOS to develop acquisition strategy and operational implementation commitments. • Need to coordinate with SB3 GFO Initiative (w. CEOS)

  15. Crop Calendars CORN WHEAT SOYBEAN COTTON RICE Crop calendars will be needed in the definition of satellite data acquisition strategies

  16. Expected Achievements by 2015 (Contd) • Examples Phase 1 Implementation of G20 GEOGLAM • Coordinated crop forecast assessments (w. AMIS) • Coordinated ‘operational’ satellite acquisition for agricultural areas (w. CEOS and private industry) • Ensure satellite data continuity for agricultural monitoring and near real-time data (e.g. VIIRS, Sentinel 2, LDCM, Alos 2, Radarsat Constellation, Merged LDCM/Sentinel 2 Products, GPM, SMAP) • Improved data and products for global ag. monitoring • Improved distribution of and access to African Raingauge data • Targeted enhanced national capacity for use of EO (Crop Producer Countries and Countries at Risk w FAO)

  17. Soumi VIIRS SR Coarse Resolution Data Continuity: Calibration> Data products Site over Australia: Data normalized for BRDF effect (nadir, sun zenith angle= 45deg) NIR bands: band 2 MODIS, band M7 VIIRS MODIS Aqua SR Vermote (NASA funded ) Results for 3/06/2012

  18. Data Access: Near Real Time Data Provision • Processing NASA EOS near-real-time daily observations and integrating into USDA FAS system (< 3 hours from obs.) • Need to provide similar NRT capabilities for new sensing systems (VIIRS, LDCM, Sentinel 2, ALOS2, etc) • Development of VIIRS Agricultural Capability currently underway by NASA Science Applications Program

  19. Ag 01 need for high frequency moderate resolution observations: Sentinel 2A and B – LDCM Longitude: 1.4  34.6 Latitude: 44.4  51.6 • The picture shows the number of times LDCM and the Sentinel 2 satellites accessed areas on the ground over an 80 day period of time. • 21 accesses indicates a maximum revisit interval of ~3 days 19 hours • 46 accesses indicates a minimum revisit interval of ~1 day 18 hours The large number of blue colored bands (>41 accesses) indicate that the revisit interval over the majority of the region is on the order of 2 days. 21 Courtesy Brian Killough, NASA LARC

  20. A ProposedData Initiative forAgriculturalLandusefrom Landsat and Sentinelfor NASA,USGS, EC, ESA • Goal 1: Createconsistent, merged Landsat and Sentinel-2 reflectancedataset • buildson MODIS, MERIS, and Landsatprocessingheritage • buildsonprevious data initiativesamong NASA, ESA, and USGS • establishesconsistentradiometric data set forlandphenology • Goal 2: Leverage new datasetsforagriculturalmonitoring (e.g. GEOGLAM prototyping) • Goal 3: Supporttransitiontooperational agencies • - GEOGLAM, USDA FAS and EC JRC MARS programs • - examples: UMD/USDA MODIS GLAM – MODIS LANCE • Fouryeareffort (2013 – 2016) • Phase 1: prototypewithlimitedgeographicscope (4-5 demonstratorcountries); • Phase 2: expandtosupport global Ag monitoringwithdemonstration of success Landsat (USGS) Sentinel-2a (ESA /EC) Data Ingest & Preprocessing AtmosphericCorrection BandpassCorrection Regridding & formatting ~5-day 30m reflectances • AgriculturalMonitoring • GEOGLAM prototyping • Ag Land use research Croptype Cropvegetation status Agland use change

  21. Expected Achievements by 2015 • Examples of Phase 1 Implementation of G20 GEOGLAM • Coordinated crop forecast assessments (w. AMIS) • Coordinated ‘operational’ satellite acquisition for agricultural areas (w. CEOS and private industry) • Ensure satellite data continuity for agricultural monitoring and near real-time data (e.g. VIIRS, Sentinel 2, LDCM, Alos 2, Radarsat Constellation, Merged LDCM/Sentinel 2 Products, GPM, SMOS, SMAP) • Improved data and products for global ag. monitoring • Improved distribution of and access to African Raingauge data • Targeted enhanced national capacity for use of EO (Crop Producer Countries and Countries at Risk w. FAO)

  22. Improved Data and Products for Global Monitoring : Cropland Mapping and Monitoring (lead: S. Fritz, IIASA - IFPRI) • 2/2012 Target: IASSA V1 Data Ready for Distribution • 2015 Targets • Transition research methods for crop mapping to operational domain / status • Refine Global 30m Products for Cropland Class (work with SBA 02 Land Cover Task )

  23. Examples of Research to Operations Coarse Resolution Global Crop Likelihood– 250m Crop Type Mapping – AWIFS, MODIS, Landsat for Corn 2007 Hansen et al. SDSU

  24. Global Agricultural Drought Monitoring (Lead: Wu Bingfang IRSA) 2012 Target: GEOSS Workshop on Agricultural Drought and Water Resources, October 24-26, 2012, Beijing, China (http://www.cropwatch.com.cn) • 2015 Targets • Global monitoring of agricultural drought anomalies • Work with Water Task WA01 on data needs

  25. Data Input Requirements for Agricultural Drought Monitoring Following inputs are needed from WA 01 to successfully implement the assessment of drought impacts on crop production • Terrestrial water distribution (Rivers/ lakes/ reservoirs/ underground water) • Precipitation (Gridded as well as station based data) • Snow pack and melt (Gridded as well as station based data) • Soil moisture (Gridded as well as station based data) • Evapo-transpiration (ET) (Gridded as well as station based data)

  26. Expected Achievements by 2015 • Examples of Phase 1 Implementation of G20 GEOGLAM • Coordinated crop forecast assessments (w. AMIS) • Coordinated ‘operational’ satellite acquisition for agricultural areas (w. CEOS and private industry) • Strengthen satellite data continuity for agricultural monitoring and near real-time data (e.g. VIIRS, Sentinel 2, LDCM, Alos 2, Radarsat Constellation, Merged LDCM/Sentinel 2 Products) • Improved data and products for global ag. monitoring • Improved distribution of and access to African raingauge data • Targeted enhanced national capacity for use of EO (Crop Producer Countries and Countries at Risk w. FAO )

  27. Improved availability of African Rainfall Station Data (Lead: J. Camacho, WMO) Systematic sample on the 1st, 11th, and 21st of month • 2015 Target • WMO coordination of climate data management, data rescue to • activate existing stations and add additional sites to the GTS Reporting • Need near term targets Of the 1232 GTS stations in Africa: 25% missed one or zero reports 40% did not report on any of the 36 days of the sample

  28. Expected Achievements by 2015 • Examples of Phase 1 Implementation of G20 GEOGLAM • Coordinated crop forecast assessments (w. AMIS) • Coordinated ‘operational’ satellite acquisition for agricultural areas (w. CEOS and private industry) • Strengthen satellite data continuity for agricultural monitoring and near real-time data (e.g. VIIRS, Sentinel 2, LDCM, Alos 2, Radarsat Constellation, Merged LDCM/Sentinel 2 Products) • Improved data and products for global ag. monitoring • Improved distribution of and access to African raingauge data • Targeted enhanced national capacity for use of EO -Crop Producer Countries and Countries at Risk(w FAO)

  29. Countries producing over 80% of global cropsFocus on improved access to and use of EO

  30. Percent of Population by Country with Insufficient FoodUN FAO 2003-2005

  31. Expected Achievements by 2015 Task Components • Complete Phase 1 Implementation of G20 GEOGLAM (GEO Global Agricultural Monitoring) • Complete Phase 1 of the Joint Experiments on Crop Assessment and Monitoring (JECAM) Task Cross Cutting Elements (from Ag 0703) – will be incorporated in GEOGLAM • Coordinated Data Initiatives for Global Agricultural Monitoring (CDIGAM). • Community of Practice Thematic and Regional strategic workshops (GLAMSS)

  32. A network of distributed regional experiments on cropland pilot sites around the world representing a range of agricultural systems (new sites can be considered) Shared time-series datasets from a variety of earth observing satellites and in-situ data and assess them for agricultural assessment and monitoring Facilitated inter-comparison of monitoring and modeling methods, product accuracy assessments, data fusion and product integration, for agricultural monitoring Development of community standards and protocols for monitoring in the framework of GEOGLAM Sentinel 2 Symposium, JECAM Side Event

  33. General JECAM Site Characteristics: • JECAM sites are relatively small, well defined geographic areas • Experiments span 3-5 years (allowing for repeat testing of methods) • JECAM usually leverages existing research initiatives within countries. • Due to ecosystem differences the experiments will test a variety of techniques incorporating a wide range of optical and radar data sets • In-situ data and satellite data can be shared between experimental sites for collaborative research • JECAM sites are looking at a common range of monitoring needs over a very diverse range of landscape conditions and cropping systems. Including: • Crop identification and acreage estimation • Yield prediction • Near Real Time Crop condition \ Crop stress • Land management • Soil moisture Sentinel 2 Symposium, JECAM Side Event

  34. Cropping systems are inherently diverse which dictates the monitoring observations and methods

  35. JECAM activities are being undertaken at a series of study sites which represent the world’s main cropping systems and agricultural practices. • 15 sites currently exist ( 1 in development). Additional sites will be added to meet science objectives and ensure all major crop systems are addressed. Mali site in development

  36. CEOS-JECAM Satellite Data Acquisition and Access • Optical Data • Aqua • Terra • Landsat 5 • Landsat 7 • MNP EO-1 • ResourceSat 1 • ResourceSat 2 • THEOS • DMCii • QuickBird • Worldview-1 • Worldview-2 • Radar Data • Radarsat 1 • Radarsat 2 • TerraSARX • Envisat • ERS-2 • Passive Radar • Aqua • SMOS

  37. New initiatives (contributions) and targets being developed within the framework of GEOGLAM • Asia Rice Monitoring (Shin-ichi Sobue, JAXA, Japan ) • Coming FP7 Call which will inc. GEOGLAM (EC) • Sentinel 2 / LDCM Merged Agricultural Product Stream (NASA/USGS/ESA/EC) – early discussion underway • Pasture Productivity Monitoring (CSIRO, Australia) – TBD • Regional Capacity Building and Training (NEOSS, South Africa) - TBD Suggestions for Assessing Progress against GEOSS Targets • 2013/14 - Task Ag 01 GEOGLAM Symposium ?

  38. Example Issues (key impediments/potential obstacles to progress) • Need funding commitment for GEOGLAM Project Office (primary role of coordination, fund raising and progress reporting ) • Data Facilitation • Need WMO to help secure African additional rain gauge data for food insecure regions • USGS to give a high priority to LDCM Agricultural growing season acquisitions • Commitment from EC/ESA for Sentinel 2 NRT provision for Agricultural regions

  39. Linkages with other Tasks; Opportunities for Collaboration; Past and Expected Benefits of Collaboration within and across Tasks Linkages needed between Task A01 and: • Task SB 03 Global Forest Observation initiative on CEOS acquisition planning coordination • Task WA01 Integrated Water Info. for global data inputs for Agricultural Drought monitoring • Task SB 02 Global Land Cover Task for refined global 30m Cropland Mapping

  40. Recommendations for Accelerating Work Plan Implementation • Expanded National Participation in and Funding for GEOGLAM Implementation by Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (concrete BRICS and mortar) • Russia / FSU workshop w. Russian Min of Ag. (2013?) • Funding for targeted national capacity building initiatives to incorporate EO in national agric. Monitoring • Producer countries (e.g. Argentina, Ukraine, Brazil) • Countries at risk (focus on Africa, South Asia, etc ) • Funding for African JECAM Site development and workshops

  41. Ways of Extending Task Participation to Wider (representative) Communities • Continued Support for Thematic and Regional CoP Workshops (these are open meetings) and support for developing country participation • Upcoming opportunities: • Regional South America Workshop and JECAM Meeting (Argentina, Sept. 2012) • Global Drought Monitoring (IRSA, Beijing, Oct 2012) ALL ARE WELCOME THANK YOU

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