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To Gabon or Not to Gabon A Game on Geoengineering Research and Policy

To Gabon or Not to Gabon A Game on Geoengineering Research and Policy. by Pablo Suarez , Ph. D. We Should EXPECT CONFUSION…. (Caldeira & Wood 2008). A Model of the Usual Experience. Allegedly Actionable Info. Audience: Passive Role. ?. Game Time: Snap!. LET ’ S. PLAY!. SNAP !.

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To Gabon or Not to Gabon A Game on Geoengineering Research and Policy

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  1. To Gabon or Not to Gabon A Game on Geoengineering Research and Policy by Pablo Suarez , Ph. D.

  2. We Should EXPECT CONFUSION… (Caldeira & Wood 2008)

  3. A Model of the Usual Experience Allegedly Actionable Info Audience: Passive Role ?

  4. Game Time: Snap!

  5. LET’S PLAY!

  6. SNAP ! • 0. Form Duos • Create deck of (imaginary) cards • Flip cards simultaneously and ‘say’ your card • If same card, say ‘Snap!’ ASAP • Observe your mind at work • Designed by Paul Z. Jackson • (Applied Improv Network)

  7. Documenting your “Snap!” Cards Form Trios Create 3 cards that you’d want to add to deck Up to 3 words per card (‘Cat’, ‘Black Panther’, ‘Southern Right Whale’) Select one card per table Most & Least ‘snapped’ cards: Eliminated Among remaining cards, Top & Bottom ‘snapping’ cards win

  8. Decisions for the Decade How to make smart long-term decisions? ? All Participate! (...expect confusion...) • designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre) • for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable Development)

  9. BASIC GAME RULES • 1. Simplification of reality No challenging the rules! • Decisions are individual • But team consultations welcome • We will make 4 decades of investment decisions Each round is 10 years

  10. WINNERS &LOSERS • Losers: Most red stones (humanitarian crises) • Winning Trio/Country: Fewest crises (if tied: Most beans for prosperity) • Winning Player/Province: Most ‘Dev’ Points • … but eliminated if: • Player with most crises is in your Table/Region • Your Table is in the bottom half of ‘crises’ rank

  11. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis by end of decade DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean

  12. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis by end of decade DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean

  13. Probability Distribution Function of Precipitation (based on the Historical Record) = Drought = Flood

  14. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean Let’s protect against 1 drought…

  15. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean Let’s protect against 1 drought… When a drought occurs, use a protection bean…

  16. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean Let’s protect against 1 drought… When a drought occurs, use a protection bean… If just 1 drought occurs in the decade… …you gain 9 Prosperity Points!

  17. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean But, what if we had a second drought? Not enough protection! …triggers humanitarian crisis …NO prosperity points!

  18. Decade 2: Our CLIMATE is CHANGING… = Drought 1 6 7 8 = Flood

  19. Decade 3: NEGOTIATING Climate Engineering Research By Half-Room, then Sector ( .Edu .Gov .Org ) Your Goal: As much ‘Completed Research’ as possible in 3 minutes • A ‘Completed Research’ is: • a special post-it note • with your Sector’s name (“.Edu” “.Gov” “.Org”) • written on it with a special pencil • placed on your Team’s table • before the deadline

  20. Decade 3 (cont.): Applying Climate Research 3 ‘Top Research’ tables: Select one representative per trio Come to the front to examine climate projections (bags) You’ll have ~7 minutes to select representatives, study the research, disseminate knowledge, discuss plans, etc (before investment deadline)

  21. Decade 4: Deploying Geoengineering? The Global Climate may continue to change… If you have enough Research + Prosperity: You may be able to deploy Solar Radiation Management Come to the front to examine models and choices

  22. NEW MODEL for climate change... The cone can land 3 ways: Normal

  23. A Model of the Usual Experience Allegedly Actionable Info Audience: Passive Role ?

  24. A Model of the Gameplay Experience Decisions Info Consequences

  25. Making ‘The Cone of Uncertainty’

  26. (Caldeira & Wood 2008)

  27. “Externalities”? Two science-based predictions 1. How will the most vulnerable help make geoengineering decisions? 2. Who will pay for humanitarian work in a geoengineered world?

  28. Gameplay beats Powerpoint Active learning (Peer-to-peer, “Aha!” moments UNFCCC) Serious, fun engagement (Emotions matter! RockFound) Data collection on decisions(In real time GEC) Optimization platform (illiteracy no problem) WWW.CLIMATECENTRE.ORG

  29. with University Students

  30. with IPCC Lead Authors

  31. at the White House

  32. WHY GAMES for Actionable Info: HUH? AHA!

  33. Risk Management Framework Problem / Context Risks Evaluation Engage Stakeholders Actions Options Decisions Omenn, 2001

  34. The Experiential Learning Cycle Concrete experiences (doing) Testing implications for new situations (planning / trying out) Observation & Reflection (reviewing) Formation of abstract concepts (concluding / learning) Kolb, 1984

  35. T H A N K Y O U ! ! !

  36. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis by end of decade DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean

  37. 2 1 3 • Winning Player/Province: Most ‘Dev’ • … but eliminated if: • Player with most crises is in your Table/Region • Your Table is in the bottom half of ‘crises’ rank 5 8 Winning Trio/Country: Fewest crises (if tied: Most beans for prosperity) 4 7 6 9

  38. 2 1 3 Regional “Aid” Pool Invest in humanitarian system to help avert crises • Management of Regional Aid Pool: • First to ask for a disaster-averting bean, gets it • Unless: • Majority delegates mgment to ‘Aid’ player • or • ‘Standard Operating Procedure’ is agreed 5 8 4 7 6 9

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