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DROUGHT MONITORING SYSTEM IN DHMZ

DROUGHT MONITORING SYSTEM IN DHMZ. Ksenija Cindrić, D. Mihajlović, J. Juras L. Kalin, B. Matjačić ksenija.cindric@cirus.dhz.hr. National Seminar on Drought Management 16 th April 2012, Zagreb. overview. Introduction Drought monitoring methods 2.1. Daily scale

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DROUGHT MONITORING SYSTEM IN DHMZ

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  1. DROUGHT MONITORING SYSTEM IN DHMZ Ksenija Cindrić, D. Mihajlović, J. Juras L. Kalin, B. Matjačić ksenija.cindric@cirus.dhz.hr National Seminar on Drought Management 16 th April 2012, Zagreb

  2. overview • Introduction • Drought monitoring methods 2.1. Daily scale 2.2. (Multi)Monthly scale 2.3 Drought forecast 3.Future improvements 16/04/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management

  3. 1. Introduction • In Croatia drought causes highest economic losses (39%) among all hydromet events (DPPŠEN,2009) • In last 2 decades it caused serious damage in agricultural sector (30% crop diminishing) • Climate change (IPCC, 2007)– mean annual precipitation increases in northern Europe and decreases further south, more intense and longer droughts • Positive trend in dry spells in CRO (spring) (Cindrić et al.,2010) 16/04/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management

  4. => an increasing interest in developing methods for drought warning system in CroatiaComprehensive drought early warning system should provide (Lincoln declaration on drought indices, 2010): - drought monitor (drought indices) - provide an early warning of drought onset and it’s intensity in timely manner - have drought prediction compoment (to protect crops, fire risk, water supply... ) 06/03/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management

  5. DHMZ drought monitoring system: • Monthly scales (maps and graphs): - Standardized PrecipitationIndex(SPI) - precipitation ratio against normal - difference from normal - associated percentiles - return periods - 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 48 months scales • Daily scale - ‘Peacock tail’ 16/04/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management

  6. DHMZ web site (http://www.meteo.hr/) - daily and monthly updated • DHMZ monthly bulletin - few months delay - description of monthly situation - add. – dry/wet spells analysis - return periods due to daily SPI 16/04/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management

  7. Climate Prediction Center of NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/ ALPINE & SOUTHEAST EUROPE 16/04/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management

  8. Time series of accumulated actual daily precipitation time series and accumulated normal precipitation are updated daily for stations in given regions. 16/04/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management

  9. 2. Drought monitoring methods 16/04/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management

  10. 2.1. Daily scale – ‘peacock tail’ - year • month • station -square-root normal distribution Juras (1994) Juras&Cindric (2010) daily updated 16/04/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management

  11. 2.2. Monthly scales National Seminar on Drought Management 16/04/2012

  12. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) • universal measure of meteorological drought recommended by WMO • developed by McKee et al (1993) • suitable tool for assesing drought intensity and duration • uses only the precipitation data at given location • can be calculated for different time scales -separates different types of drought (meteorological, hydrological, agricultural) 16/04/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management

  13. Gamma CDF is transformed to a standardized normal distribution N(0,1) pdf: cdf: a – shape parameter b – scale parameter x – precipitation amount q: probability of zero preciptiation calibration period: 1961-2000 SPI > 0 : precipitation > median SPI < 0 : precipitation < median 16/04/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management

  14. SPI spatial distribution • 1,3,6,12,24,48 m • calibration period: 1961-2000 • monthly updated September 2010 16/04/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management 14

  15. Drought example November 2011 March 2012 16/04/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management 15

  16. 2.3. Drought forecast • ECMWF precipitation forecast: - medium range ( 9 days) - monthly (28 days) - seasonal (1 month) • daily and monthly precipitation records for 5 met. stations representing different climate regions in Croatia • 2007 -2011 16/04/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management

  17. 16/04/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management

  18. SPI30d (21 observed + 9 forecasted) skillful slight overestimating of SPI (too wet) often still not catching extreme events 16/04/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management

  19. Monthly and seasonal forecasts (SPI28, SPI1 and SPI3) significantly less skill signal too weak (no extreme forecasts) 16/04/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management

  20. 3. Future improvements • Comprehensive operational monitoring system in DHMZ • Improve feedback endusers • Improve monitoring system • Establish operational SPI forecast (SPI30) combining observation and forecast • Develop operational drought warning system 16/04/2012 National Seminar on Drought Management 20

  21. Thank you for your attention! 16/04/2012 21 National Seminar on Drought Management

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