Afrobarometer, Where is Africa Going? And How Does Namibia Fit In?

2. Afrobarometer, Where is Africa Going? And How Does Namibia Fit In? 23 June 2006 Windhoek, Namibia

3. The Afrobarometer • Lived Poverty • Africans’ Views of Economics • Africans’ Views of Corruption • Partisan Identification • Africans’ Views of Democracy

4. Afrobarometer

5. Purpose • A comparative series of national public attitude surveys in Africa on Democracy, Markets and Civil Society • Scientific project dedicated to accurate and precise measurement of nationally representative samples of publics • Policy relevant project that inserts results into national and global policy discussion • Ultimately, advancing democracy in Africa by promoting the voice of public opinion

6. When and Where • In “reforming” African countries (generally, multi party regimes that have had a founding democratic election, or a re-democratizing election) • Round 1 (12 countries, mid-1999 to mid 2001) • in West Africa: Ghana, Mali, Nigeria • in East Africa: Uganda and Tanzania • in Southern Africa: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe • Round 2 (16 countries, mid 2002-late 2003) • repeats original 12 (Zimbabwe in early 2004) • Adds Cape Verde, Kenya, Mozambique, and Senegal • Round 3 (18 countries, 2005) • Adds Madagascar and Benin

7. Who Does It? Network • 3 Core Partners • Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa) • Centre for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) • Michigan State University • 16 National Partners (NGO, public, private) • Other Individual and Institutional Research Associates • Regular Workshops • To discuss policies and protocols and appoint committees to produce concentrated pieces of work like draft questionnaires or revisions of survey methodologies • Summer School / Capacity Building • To build Network skills in scientific analysis, including social statistics, report writing and relevant literature

8. Who Does It? Southern Africa • Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa) West Africa • Centre for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) East Africa • Michigan State University / • Wilsken Agencies (Uganda)

9. By Round 4 Southern Africa • Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa) West Africa • Centre for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) East Africa • Wilsken Agencies Support Units • Michigan State University • University of Cape Town

10. Who Supports It? • Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA) • U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) • Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs (NMFA) • Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation • Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs • World Bank • UK Department for International Development (DFID) • Danish Governance Trust Fund at the World Bank • Royal Dutch Embassy in Namibia • Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation • Trocaire Regional Office for Eastern Africa • Michigan State University • African Development Bank • U.S. National Science Foundation • Konrad Adenauer Stiftung

11. Sampling • Random • Clustered • Stratified • Area Probability • Proportionate (some exceptions: e.g Tanzania, South Africa) • Multi Stage • Nationally representative • Minimum Sample Size of 1200 gives a margin of sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points (2.8 points)

12. Interviewing • Personal, face-to-face interviews • Questionnaires translated in to local languages • Interviewers fluent in local languages

13. Lived Poverty

14. Measuring Lived Poverty • Over the past year, how often, if ever have you or your family gone without: • Enough food to eat? • Enough clean water for home use? • Medicines of medical treatment? • Electricity in your home? • Enough fuel to cook your food? • A cash income?

15. Measuring Lived Poverty • Over the past year, how often, if ever have you or your family gone without: • 0. Never • 1. Just Once or Twice • 2. Several Times • 3. Many Times • 4. Always

16. Lived Poverty Food Shortages

17. Lived Poverty

18. Increasing Lived PovertyFood Shortages (2000-2005)

19. Decreasing Lived PovertyFood Shortages (2000-2005)

20. Africans’ Views of Economics

21. Measuring Economic Evaluations • Present • In general, how would you describe: The present economic condition of this country? • Past • Looking back, how do you rate the following compared to twelve months ago? Economic conditions in this country? • Future: • Looking ahead, do you expect the following to be better or worse? Economic conditions in this country in twelve months time?

22. Present National Economic Conditions

23. Evaluations of the National Economy

24. Increasing Satisfaction WithPresent National Economic Conditions In Africa (2000-2005)

25. Stable / Stagnant Satisfaction WithPresent National Economic Conditions In Africa (2000-2005)

26. Declining Satisfaction WithPresent National Economic Conditions in Africa (2000-2005)

27. Measuring Support for Economic Reform • User fees • It is better to raise educational standards, even if we have to pay school fees • Job cuts • The government cannot afford so many public employees and should lay some of them off. • Economic impact • The government’s economic policies have helped most people; only a few have suffered (percent agree/agree very strongly). • Economic patience • In order for the economy to get better in the future, it is necessary for us to accept some hardships now.

28. Economic Reform

29. Economic Impact

30. Economic Patience

31. Increasing Economic Patience in Africa (2000-2005)

32. Stable Economic Patience in Africa (2000-2005)

33. Decreasing Economic Patience (2000-2005)

34. Africans’ Views of Corruption

35. Measuring Understandings of Corruption • For each of the following, please indicate whether you think the act is not wrong at all, wrong but understandable, or wrong and punishable. • A public official decides to locate a development project in an area where his friends and supporters lived • A government official gives a job to someone from his family who does not have adequate qualifications • A government official demands a favour or an additional payment for some service that is part of his job

36. Jobs For Relatives

37. Measuring Perceptions of Corruption • How many of the following people do you think are involved in corruption, or haven’t you heard enough about them to say • The President and officials in his office • Members of Parliament • Elected local government councilors • National government officials • Local government officials • Police • Tax officials • Judges and magistrates • Health workers • Teachers and school administrators

38. Perception of Corruption National Government Officials

39. Perception of CorruptionPolice

40. Perceptions of Corruption, 2000-2005

41. Declining Perceptions of CorruptionNational Govt Officials (2000-2005)

42. Stable Perceptions of CorruptionNational Govt Officials (2000-2005)

43. Increasing Perceptions of CorruptionNational Govt Officials (2000-2005)

44. Measuring Victimization by Corruption • In the past year, how often (if ever) have you had to pay a bribe, give a gift, or do a favour to government officials in order • Get a document or a permit? • Get a child into school? • Get a household service (like piped water, electricity or phone)? • Get medicine or medical attention from a health worker • Avoid a problem with the police (like passing a checkpoint or avoiding a fine or arrest)? • And during the XXXX election, how often (if ever) did a candidate or someone from a political party offer you something, like food or a gift, in return for your vote?

45. Pay a Bribe for Official Document / Permit

46. Pay a Bribe to Avoid Problem With Police

47. Partisan Politics

48. Party Identification (2005-2006)

49. Partisan Identification and Voter Turnout, (12 Afrobarometer Countries, 1999-2001)

50. Trust In Ruling Parties (2005-2006)