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A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005

A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005. P. S. Market, C. J. Melick, B. P. Pettegrew, A. E. Becker, and L. L. Smith Department of Soil, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences University of Missouri-Columbia Presented at the Winter Weather Workshop

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A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005

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  1. A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005 P. S. Market, C. J. Melick, B. P. Pettegrew, A. E. Becker, and L. L. Smith Department of Soil, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences University of Missouri-Columbia Presented at the Winter Weather Workshop National Weather Service Office, Pleasant Hill, MO 29 October 2007

  2. With the aid of… • John Stoppkotte, SOO North Platte, Nebraska, NWS • UMC students enrolled in ATMS-4720, Synoptic Meteorology II • The National Science Foundation

  3. Introduction • Analysis of occluded cyclone • Well-developed trowal structure • Multiple bands of precipitation • Blizzard conditions for an extended period in LBF CWA • Lightning activity present but limited snow(in.) gusts(mph) Courtesy, NOAA/NWS LBF

  4. Purpose • Assess the nature of the unique trowal structure • Influence on banded precip? • Assess lightning observations • Are they valid? • Assess the production of extreme winds snow(in.) gusts(mph) Courtesy, NOAA/NWS LBF

  5. - Synopsis -

  6. 12Z 2005 Nov 28

  7. 12Z 2005 Nov 28

  8. 12Z 2005 Nov 28 – 925 mb

  9. 12Z 2005 Nov 28 – 850 mb

  10. 12Z 2005 Nov 28 – 700 mb

  11. 12Z 2005 Nov 28 – 500 mb

  12. 12Z 2005 Nov 28 – 300 mb

  13. 12Z 2005 Nov 28 – RADAR

  14. Storm total snow (in.) , 27-30 Nov 2005

  15. - Event Specifics -

  16. 2005 Nov 28 – Surface Obs • KAUH 1310Z +SN LTG DSNT SW • With NLDN flash near this time • KVTN 1622Z, 1652Z, 2008Z, 2032Z, 2052Z, 2109Z TSSN • KAUH – Aurora, NE • KVTN – Valentine, NE

  17. 2005 Nov 28 – NE Sfc Stations

  18. 2005 Nov 28 – 1300Z • Initial development of lightning and thunder • Reported in Aurora, NE, METAR • Corroborated by NLDN

  19. 2005 Nov 28 – 13Z RUC20 – AUH Sounding

  20. 2005 Nov 28 – 2100Z • Redevelopment of lightning and thunder • Emergence of trowal feature • And a unique double trowal signature • Evolution of meso- circulations • Significant banded precipitation underway

  21. 2005 Nov 28 – 19Z RUC20 –VTN Sounding

  22. 2005 Nov 28 – 21Z VIS Sat

  23. 2005 Nov 28 – 21Z IR Sat

  24. 2005 Nov 28 – 21Z WV Sat

  25. 2005 Nov 28 – 21Z Sounder CTP

  26. 2005 Nov 28 – 21Z RADAR

  27. 2005 Nov 28 – IR Loop 13Z-23Z

  28. 2005 Nov 28 – RADAR Loop 18Z-23Z

  29. - Trowal Structure -

  30. Various Model Solutions for trowal 21Z Nov 28 2005 – 308 K e

  31. Cross Section through Double trowal 2100V009 Nov 28 2005 – NAM 212 Trowal Surface

  32. Cross Section through Double trowal 21Z Nov 28 2005 – NAM 212 Grid Cross Section

  33. WRF 12-km Solutions Valid 21Z Nov 28 2005 – 21 hr Solutions Reflectivity (Shaded & contoured)

  34. WRF 12-km Solutions Valid 21Z Nov 28 2005 – 21 hr Solutions Reflectivity (shaded) with θe

  35. WRF 12-km Solutions Valid 21Z Nov 28 2005 – 21 hr Solutions θe - Full Physics (green) / No microphysics (brown)

  36. WRF 12-km Solutions Valid 21Z Nov 28 2005 – 21 hr Solutions θe (white contours)

  37. WRF 12-km Solutions Valid 21Z Nov 28 2005 – 21 hr Solutions Reflectivity with ω

  38. Conclusions • AUH - 13Z - One NLDN CG flash establishes a history of electrical activity • VTN - 16Z, 20Z, 21Z – METARS report TSSN based upon surface sensor • Valid, to the best of our knowledge • Also, soundings support existence of lightning

  39. Conclusions • Existence of double trowal appears valid • Reason(s) for creation of the structure are unclear • Structure seems to have some bearing on banded precipitation development and/or evolution • The trowal aspect of this cyclone warrants further study

  40. Thank you!Questions?Comments? marketp@missouri.edu ROCS Homepage : http://weather.missouri.edu/ROCS/

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