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NOAA Climate Observation Division 8th Annual PI Meeting June 25-28, Silver Spring, MD

NOAA Climate Observation Division 8th Annual PI Meeting June 25-28, Silver Spring, MD. Climate Monitoring Christopher Miller Climate Observations Division 1. Definitions 2. Attributes of a Monitoring System 3. Examples of Monitoring Activities 4. Monitoring in the Future.

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NOAA Climate Observation Division 8th Annual PI Meeting June 25-28, Silver Spring, MD

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  1. NOAA Climate Observation Division8th Annual PI MeetingJune 25-28, Silver Spring, MD Climate Monitoring Christopher Miller Climate Observations Division 1. Definitions 2. Attributes of a Monitoring System 3. Examples of Monitoring Activities 4. Monitoring in the Future

  2. Climate Monitoring - Working Definition Climate Monitoring is the “transformation of observations into climate-quality data sets and information products and the interpretation of these products to understand the state, and changing state, of the climate system.” Components: Climate Data Set Development & Stewardship Detection – documenting variability/trends, outliers, abrupt changes, extremes, thresholds exceeded, i.e., statistically unusual events and/or societally-relevant impacts

  3. Climate Monitoring - Working Definition If we extend the definition to identify cause(s), then an Attribution component is introduced (e.g., patterns of SST change in the ocean basins => natural vs anthropogenic forcing) ----------------------- Conclusion: Currently we don’t have a fully integrated climate monitoring system – we have essential pieces and an idea of where we want to go.

  4. Relationship to Observations • Monitoring is not observations, but is dependent on sustained observations, specifically, their duration, continuity, and consistency • Monitoring relies on historical and contemporary data (available as soon as possible) => early warning system • + • “Projected data” (future scenarios) => risk management

  5. Relationship to Observations • Monitoring provides feedback for the health of the observing system (performance metrics) and the prioritization of global/regional observing systems • --------------------------- • Goal: Provide long-term, accurate, authoritative, and timely climate-related information

  6. Attributes of a Good Monitoring System • A sustained observing system (with adequate spatial and temporal coverage) • Analysis capability for ensuring continuity (continuity distinguishes a climate system from a weather system**), e.g., homogeneity adjustments • Quick turnaround (essential for multiple science team input/perspectives, early warning, and informed responses) • ------------------------ • ** Climate signals (low-frequency) are smaller than weather signals (high-frequency) and thus demand more precise measurements and greater attention to calibration, bias errors, sampling, QC, processing algorithms, and maintaining stable data sets over the long term as instruments change.

  7. Attributes of a Good Monitoring System • Transparency, traceability, reproducibility of data • Adherence to GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles for Essential Climate Variables (e.g., overlap of instruments) • Ability to blend data from different observing systems • Appropriate mix of investment in research and operations

  8. A Sampling of NOAA Monitoring Activities NOAA-Wide NESDIS STAR: sea level changes, sea ice thickness, AVHRR and GOES SST, precipitation, snow cover NODC: temperature/salinity profiles, World Ocean Database, ocean heat content NCDC: drought indices, climate normals, teleconnection indices, ERSST, GHCN NGDC: retrospective coastal and deep-water water level data, sea ice NWS CPC: drought monitoring, precipitation, soil moisture analyses, ENSO updates, storm tracks, CFS Reanalysis, Climate Data Assimilation System (CDAS) OHD: Precipitation frequency estimates; Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)

  9. A Sampling of NOAA Monitoring Activities NOAA-Wide OAR AOML: meridional heat transport, upper ocean thermal structure and currents ESRL: aerosols, GHGs, air-sea fluxes during research cruises PMEL: ocean heat content, air-sea carbon fluxes ARL: tropospheric/stratospheric variables NOS CO-OPS (Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services) : sea level trends from tide stations

  10. A Sampling of NOAA Monitoring Activities CPO • NIDIS - drought outlooks/assessments • Climate Portal - timely data and information products • International Research Institute for Climate & Society - IRI (Columbia U.) - satellite monitoring of the environment for health and food security COD • Grants program for critical climate variables/indicators, e.g., sea ice extent & thickness, tropical/extratropical cyclones, ocean waves, ocean currents, ocean heat content, clouds, water vapor, weather/climate extremes • Directed Analysis Projects: ocean heat content (700 and 2000m), SST patterns, air-sea carbon exchange, meridional heat transport, sea ice thickness, sea level trends • Transitioning data sets from research to operations (e.g., ERSST) • Arctic Indices of Change/Arctic Report Card • State of the Climate Report (results of COD-sponsored obs/research)

  11. Sustained Monitoring R => O • Long-term preservation and reprocessing of data sets How to accomplish: 1. one-off data sets => active archive 2. COD/Research Center for Data Set Development (ARC) - in situ and satellite data - facilitate transition of research projects to an operational setting (i.e., host facilities with scientific expertise and resources to update/sustain/reprocess data records)

  12. Sustained Monitoring R => O 3. NCDC Climate Data Record ** Program (satellite data): grants (developmental) and contracts (operational) • Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration • 4 km AVHRR SST Pathfinder Project - Optimum Interpolation 1/4 Degree Daily SST Analysis ---------------------------------------- ** CDRs – ideally, measurement is tied to irrefutable standards, i.e., laboratory basis : calibration against international standards

  13. International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) • International archive of historical global in situ marine surface observations • Release 2.5 (R2.5) completed in 2009 and extending from 1662 through 2007 • Near real-time extension 2008 – current • Based on NOAA/NCEP acquisition and GTS decoding • Updated monthly (to be enhanced by blending NCDC GTS) • Simple 1°x1° (from 1960) and 2°x2° (from 1800) monthly summary statistics

  14. International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) • Access continuing from NCAR, NOAA/NCDC, and NOAA/ESRL • Full delayed-mode update, Release 2.6.0, to include many new sources of data and correct identified errors in R2.5 originally planned for completion by the end of 2012, but will be delayed due to still unresolved resource uncertainties • ICOADS Value-Added Data Base (IVAD) has overall aim to - embed observational bias adjustments, improved uncertainty estimations, and advanced QC into ICOADS DBMS - scientifically demonstrate the impact of value-added records on air-sea flux estimates & common climate indicators

  15. ICOADS – Current Challenges • Involvement at NOAA/ESRL slated to end this year • driven by large NOAA/Climate Program Office (CPO) cuts • details at http://icoads.noaa.gov/ICOADS-notice.pdf • NOAA/NCDC: anticipated new overall development lead • initially taking responsibility for the near real-time enhancement, development, and processing • Historical data (and metadata) rescue was severely compromised due to the sudden loss of the NOAA Climate Database Modernization Program (CDMP)

  16. ICOADS – Resolution • NOAA/NCDC is leading discussions and planning to accommodate the critical delayed-mode activity • Resolution and resourcing not certain today • Plan: bring ESRL staff together with new data scientists to jointly create the next Release (R2.6.0) • Need effective transition of large, existing knowledge base to a new development team • NCAR and NCDC will also maintain their past roles • Potential for expanded partnerships to be explored • e.g. UK Met Office/Hadley Centre; UK Nat’l Oceanography Centre; Florida State U.

  17. ICOADS - Conclusions • ICOADS R2.5 and ongoing monthly extensions will remain available • with improved GTS blend of NCEP + NCDC data • New Releases of ICOADS will not be supported at NOAA/ESRL • IVAD has novel potential, but development currently has slowed • International links • ICOADS project proposed as a WMO-IOC Centre for Marine Meteorological & Oceanographic Climate Data (CMOC) under new JCOMM Marine Climate Data System • More robust and sustainable framework needed for marine and oceanographic data rescue

  18. Monitoring Practices in the Future • Attention to data transparency, provenance, and quality (the “underpinning” for monitoring) => facilitate data sharing/exchange • Climate Data Record Program for in situ data? • Inventory of current monitoring activities (baseline, overlaps, gaps) • How many variables/indicators can we monitor well (given budgetary and/or technical constraints)? • Develop a process to strengthen NOAA climate monitoring, including the prioritization process, e.g., a Climate Monitoring Working Group

  19. Monitoring Practices in the Future • Data analysis support for emerging climate observing systems • Need for data assimilation from different observational resources => ocean reanalysis • Sustained commitment => observations, monitoring, assessments (e.g., sustained National Climate Assessment relies on the robustness of the monitoring enterprise)

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