NOAA Climate Program Office Climate Observations Division PI Meeting

1. NOAA Climate Program OfficeClimate Observations DivisionPI Meeting David M Legler Climate Observation Division N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

2. Background • All about me • Science/research mutt • Ocean remote sensing, air-sea interaction/fluxes, ocean surface observations, ocean data management (WOCE), ocean modeling, ocean data assimilation, climate forecasting applications (agriculture), CLIVAR (broad range of research activities….interagency) • Working with people and programs • No experience as a program manager (except vicariously) • After 16 months, still learning! • Thanks for your patience and support 2

3. Observations & Monitoring ProgramWelcome to NOAA! Immediate Impressions • Great and talented partners: labs, universities, other agencies, international • We have had supportive leaders within NOAA • Dedicated (& hard working) team (ie COD) • COD and its partners contribute critical capabilities to research, prediction, monitoring, and assessment communities • I’ve discovered why program managers always seemed busy….because they are….Planning, managing, coordinating, integrating, executing, assessing, meetings! • Some activities/decisions are easier to explain than others 3

4. Observations & Monitoring ProgramWelcome to NOAA – please help! • Committee Work and Leadership [recent topics discussed] • Within NOAA • NOAA Obs System Council (NOSC) – Dr Sullivan, Chair [Prioritization of obs systems across NOAA, data mgmt, etc] • Fleet Council – Adm Bailey, Chair [Fleet allocations, management] • Satellite requirements groups (2) • Interagency • Interagency Ocean Observations Committee (IOOC) – Co-Chair along with Eric Lindstrom/NASA and Bob Hautman/NSF [Interagency coordination and planning of ocean observations and IOOS oversight] • US CLIVAR Inter-Agency Group – WCRP [research/interagency coordination] 4

5. Observations & Monitoring ProgramOutline • What I Learned Over the Past 16 Months • Program Health • Considerations for the Future 5

6. Highlights Observations & Monitoring Why We Observe the Ocean • Thanks to the efforts of the international community developed over the last 2 decades, we are now observing the surface and global upper ocean systematically for the first time in history. • It is a major international achievement and the OCO program has played a central role in developing the in-situ components 6

7. State of the Global Ocean Observations & Monitoring Program FY11 Highlights – Integrated Ocean Status Quick easy to use Indices and trends for Ocean Sfc and Subsurface, Ocean-Atmosphere, and Sea Ice NOAA NCEP GODAS Analyses

8. Observations & Monitoring Program FY11 Highlights - Argo New uses of Argo observations (Salinity and trajectory) to explore ocean dynamics Interannual Variability: Globally-averaged T (left) and S (right), highlighting the ENSO anti-correlated variation of the surface layer (0 – 100 db) and the 100-500 db layer. From: Roemmich and Gilson (2011, Geophys. Res. Lett.) Ocean Circulation and Transport: Absolute geostrophic pressure field at 5 db based on combined Argo trajectory and profile data. CI = 10 dyn cm. From: Gray and Riser, 2011, in prep) 8

9. Persistent Antarctic Bottom Water Warming Repeat Sections document large, persistent changes in Southern MOC AABW flows north through the Vema Channel as part of the MOC The 2011 reoccupation of A10 crossed the Vema Channel Zenk and Morozov (2007, GRL) showed AABW warming in the Vema Channel by about 0.03 ºC per year since the 1980s An update including the 2011 data shows the coldest AABW in the Vema Channel has warmed by 0.1 ºC since the 1970s. Part of a global contraction of AABW over that last few decades. M. O. Baringer, A. M. Macdonald, & G. C. Johnson

10. Observations & Monitoring Program FY11 Highlights – Global Drifter Program Right: time series of the latitude of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean, showing a significant southward shift in last 15 years. Position derived from a synthesis of drifters, altimetry and wind products (Lumpkin and Garzoli, 2011). Southward shift of Brazil-Malvinas Current Tsunami Debris Field Evolution Left: simulation of March 2011 tsunami debris field evolution, using drifter-derived advection/diffusion statistics (N. Maximenko, Univ. Hawaii). 10

11. Highlights Observations & Monitoring Program FY11 Highlights – Sea Level Unprecedented Sea-level rise in the Western Pacific – winds to blame? Linear trend (1993-2010) of satellite altimeter SSH showing the region of high rates in the western Tropical Pacific. Vectors denote ECMWF wind stress trends for the same period. The inset is the time series of average sea level obtained from 11 tide gauges (tide gauge locations denoted by solid dot) (from Merrifield and Maltrud, 2011). 11

12. Observations & Monitoring Program FY11 Highlights – Tropical Moored Arrays Linear Equatorial Wave Model Validated with Observed RAMA Transports (0-100 m) at 0°, 80.5E Solutions near the equator are dominated by the the Kelvin + 1st meridional mode Rossby wave of the two gravest vertical modes K-R1 Model is based on just the Kelvin wave and first meridional mode Rossby wave of the first and second baroclinic modes. Nagura and McPhaden, 2010, J. Geophys. Res.

13. Observations & Monitoring Program FY11 Highlights – Ocean Carbon The 7 year time series at the MOSEAN H-A/WHOTS mooring site shows an increasing trend in ocean and atmosphere CO2. RECCAP(REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) Climatological global net sea-air CO2 flux CO2 release + CO2 uptake - -1.19 Pg (1015) C yr-1

14. Observations & Monitoring Program FY11 Highlights – Analyses Validation of Satellite-Derived Air Temperature and Humidity (accurate input for surface fluxes) – Smith and Bourassa (FSU) Time series for the World Ocean of ocean heat content (1022 J) for the 0-2000m (red) and 700-2000m (black) layers based on running pentadal (five-year) analyses. Reference period is 1955-2006. From Levitus et al. (2012) Ocean Freshwater flux (EOAFlux – PGPCP) 1979-2008 (Lisan Yu – WHOI) 14

15. Glider alongshore flow: mean and 0-500m variability Observations & Monitoring Program FY11 Highlights – California Current Gliders Data products consist of profiles of temperature, salinity, density, velocity, chlorophyll fluorescence, and acoustic backscatter on uniform grids along all lines. The resulting sections allow calculation of the transport of such quantities as heat, salt, phytoplankton, and zooplankton (Send and Rudnick /Scripps)

16. Observations & Monitoring ProgramProgram Overview • Program Overview 16

17. Observations & Monitoring ProgramClimate Observations Division David Legler, Division Chief Our mission is to develop and sustain, with national & international partners, an in situ global observing system to monitor, understand, & support prediction of the coupled ocean, arctic, & atmosphere systems; To provide long-term, high quality, timely global observational data, information, and products in support of communities of researchers, forecasters, other service providers, and users, for the benefit of society Key Activities • Global Ocean Observing System • Arctic Research and Arctic Observing Network • Monitoring Strategic Partners • NOAA Ctrs/Labs (PMEL, AOML, GLERL, GFDL, CPC, EMC, NCDC, NODC, ESRL, ), US Navy, … • Academia (Scripps, WHOI, UW, Miami, FSU, CIs) • Int'l Research Programs in Europe, Asia, Russia, etc and engaged/coordinated through bilaterials, IOC, and efforts like Argo and GLOSS.

18. Critical Partners contributing resources Observations & Monitoring Program Critical partners contributing resources All observing activities supported by the Climate Observation Division are in partnership with other countries, including: • Argo: 34 countries • Arctic : 13 countries • Global Sea-Level System: 57 countries • Surface Drifters: 14 countries • Tropical Moored Buoy Arrays: RAMA (15) and PIRATA (3) International partnership and coordination is the most economical and sustainable pathway to achieve global observation coverage “The substantial commitment of NOAA to support in situ and satellite observations of ocean climate has been critical to building a Global Ocean Observing System. GOOS is delivering data and information for research and services to all Member States of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission to help manage our relationship with the natural system and to build a sustainable future.” Albert Fischer, Ph.D. Director, GOOS Project Office

19. Observations & Monitoring Program Arctic Research • Arctic Research produces unique and multi-disciplinary observations for the Arctic region, including: • Bering Straight/Chukchi Sea/Pacific Arctic, heat, fresh water and ecosystem changes; • Sea-ice drift and ice mass; • Time series of essential climate variables • at Atmospheric Observatories • International partnerships • (Russia, Canada, Pacific Arctic Group) Recent Highlights: • NOAA’s Arctic Vision and Strategy (2011) • Sea-Ice Forecasting Workshop (2011) • CPO/Arctic priorities embedded in NOAA, IARPC and NOC plans (2012) • Arctic Council Marine Monitoring Plan FY12 Milestones: • Arctic Report Card • Quadrennial RUSALCA cruise in Bering Straight and Chukchi Sea Observing, understanding, and prediction of the Arctic where the environment is particularly sensitive to climate variability and change. 19

20. Observations & Monitoring ProgramMonitoring Activity: Detection and Attribution • Detection and Attribution projects are aimed at providing data and tools needed to make authoritative statements about the degree to which man-made influences are showing up in the climate system. These projects produce research publications and attribution knowledge and capabilities. • Recent Highlights: • Extension of attribution studies beyond initial global-scale atmospheric temperature to address regional scales and other variables, e.g. precipitation • Increased attention to the occurrence and attribution of single events that have large impacts on society (e.g., weather and climate extremes) • Partnerships: With DOE, support grants in detection/attribution and international scientists participating in the International Detection and Attribution Group (IDAG) • Opportunities: • Detection: support monitoring of historical extremes and compare with model projections of future extremes • Attribution: forge new alliances to address key issues (CPO programs, other agencies, international research institutions). • FuturePhases: • Maintain core detection/attribution focus but continue to expand into new areas like impacts attribution and event attribution. • Support emerging activity of the ESRL-led Attribution of Climate-related Events group, with a focus on establishing routine attribution “A key challenge for the community is to move beyond research-mode case studies to develop systems that can deliver regular and timely assessments in the aftermath of extreme events.” —Scott, et. al. “Attribution of Weather and Climate-Related Extreme Events. Published in Nature: September 8, 2011 20

21. Observations & Monitoring ProgramReturn on Investment • For a $45M investment in the Climate Observation Division (COD) by Congress through CPO, COD provides: • Sustained global observations of essential climate variables in the ice-free ocean to 2000m depth • Key observations of the Arctic region’s climate to document variability, detect change, and evaluate impacts on marine ecosystems • Monitoring and long-term records of critical climate variables such as global sea-level change, SST, ocean thermal/heat uptake, sea-ice, and ocean carbon which meet the long-term observational requirements of forecast and modeling centers, international research programs, major scientific assessments, and decision-makers • The foundation for US (and world) S-I forecasts • International partnerships and infrastructure leading to the growth of a Global Climate Observation System • High quality products & reports to inform decision-makers and the public • Authoritative updates to the public: The Annual State of the Climate (one of the top 10 AMS resources downloaded) as well as the Arctic Report Card 21

22. Highlights Observations & Monitoring Program Program Health • Budget (past, present, and future) • External Forces • Risks • Concerns 22

23. Observations & Monitoring Program Budget Division Spending FY12 (FY11) Diane Stanitski, Candyce Clark, Sidney Thurston, Joel Levy, Steve Piotrowicz John Calder, Kathy Crane Chris Miller, Bill Murray Summer Intern: Amanda Laurier 23

24. Observations & Monitoring Program Budget History 24

25. Observations & Monitoring ProgramFY12 Budget Reduction Impacts • Small budget reductions in many observing activities. Nearly all global observing capabilities maintained (but with increased risks and reduced scientific involvement). XBT program focused reductions. • Significant reductions in support of ocean data assimilation (primarily at GFDL, NCEP) • Reduced support of some technology development • Analysis efforts reduced. A few product and analysis activities zeroed. • Maintained some investment in deep Argo technology development 25

26. Observations & Monitoring ProgramProspects for FY13 • President: $4.6M increase for COD • Senate: CPO funding = President’s budget • House: CPO funding = FY12 less $18M, “Committee recommends a more balanced funding allocation across NOAA’s research programs”…???? • Outcomes at COD level: ??? 26

27. Observations & Monitoring ProgramCapabilities and Risks • We’ve heard the message: Several years of stagnant budget are eroding capabilities and increasing risks • Risks include loss of data, instrumentation, spares (thereby increasing risks of observing cessation), personnel, data quality and timeliness, etc • Not everyone has indicated that risks have increased • Program managers will assess this information as we start planning for FY13 and beyond 27

28. Observations & Monitoring ProgramPerceptions (as the incoming director) • A collection of activities… the observing “system” is not uniformly developed or organized • However, many pieces are highly efficient and overall the system has made tremendous progress towards the global ocean observing system vision • There is no clear prioritization of observing activities • Demonstrating and communicating value/impact of current/future system sometimes difficult and not a part of our DNA • Program information not available online • Data search/access sometimes a challenge 28

29. Observations & Monitoring ProgramConcerns (after a year) Sustainability of the Observing System • It’s complex, has a lot of moving and aging parts, needs lots of love and care…. Maintenance and “refurbishment” become more important as time goes on. Expectations that COD will provide product and science support conflicts with mandate to sustain observing system (need both). Downward Budget Pressure • Overall federal budget will likely remain flat or decline for next few years. Observations are an important NOAA activity. But NOAA is challenged to support current and planned observing needs. NOAA is assessing and prioritizing its observing systems. Declining NOAA Fleet and Charter Fund resources • Requirement for global-class ship capability will remain for foreseeable future- Without adequate ship resources, parts of the global ocean observing system for climate that have been developed over the past 15 years are in peril (Tropical arrays, carbon buoys, deep ocean hydrography, etc). How does the program initiate new things and new technology (in light of above) 29

30. Highlights Observations & Monitoring Program Considerations for the Future • Where are we going? • Addressing program needs (what should we do!) 30

31. Developing the Global Ocean Observing System for ClimateStatus against the GCOS Implementation Plan and JCOMM targets 61% May 2010 Total in situ networks 87% 100% 62% The value/notion of completing 100% of array does not easily translate into payoff/outcome! 81% 100% 43% 79% 24% 48% System % complete • A total of 8483 in situ platforms • are maintained globally. • Of these, 4207 are supported • by NOAA. Target 100%

32. Observations & Monitoring Program Translating Increased Observing into Impacts • Observing, Understanding, Predicting, and Monitoring • Sea level • Ocean carbon sources and sinks • The ocean’s storage and global transport of heat and fresh water • Sea surface temperature • The air-sea exchange of heat and fresh water • Sea ice extent • Ocean biological changes associated with environmental changes (e.g. in Arctic) • Impacts on Products and Immediate Customers • Metrics/diagnostics (and their uncertainties), products, models (uptake and results) • Value beyond • Climate variability and change (e.g. ENSO, MJO, Monsoons, Indian Ocean Dipole, decadal and longer variations), extremes, inundation, floods, droughts, hurricanes, ecosystems, agriculture, commerce, safety, policy, etc Global Average Sea Level Change Ocean Storage of CO2 World Ocean Heat Content Global Average Sea Surface Temperature Arctic Sea Ice Extent 32 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

33. Highlights Observations & Monitoring Program Addressing Program Needs Resources • THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES! Be Prepared! • Develop strategic perspective (Wed morning) overall and within individual program activities. What initiatives are ready for FY14/15? • Improve the scope and availability of information and reporting (ie metrics) characterizing health, status, performance, and impacts of our activities (Wed morning) • Program activities and performance should be more strongly tied to science/research/monitoring goals. Develop a means to review programs to provide feedback and assess progress on these goals. Some programs may have to be terminated. • Look for opportunities to partner with other programs to expand observing capabilities (e.g. bio-Argo with Argo, CCE moorings, etc) 33

34. Highlights Observations & Monitoring Program Addressing Program Needs Resources (2) • Develop a portfolio of program impact materials describing impacts/value of observing efforts • Improve awareness and encourage support (and corresponding budget) within NOAA and elsewhere for research/obs activities (communications, messaging, and engagement) • Keep fighting internally for appropriate ship resources • Increased attention to potential bilateral “Resource Sharing Agreements” for ship time • Look for efficiencies/alternate strategies for ship scheduling for mooring servicing • New technologies may help (and may an attractive “sell” to NOAA if they help reduce reliance on ships), but introducing them into climate observing system has to be done carefully – what is our strategy and timeline for developing, considering, and incorporating evolutionary and revolutionary technologies? (Wed PM) IOOS Summit 34

35. Highlights Observations & Monitoring Program Addressing Program Needs Sustaining the System • Define what it takes to be sustainable, e.g. best practices/attributes of a sustained observing activity. • Identify those activities that should be “sustained” and those that are still in pilot or pre-sustained status Needs More Attention • Real-time data needs, assimilation & analysis Outward Focus • Provide program information (COD lead) • Develop data management roadmap to long-term goal of improving search and accessibility, bringing some consistency across data systems • Increase ties between global ocean observing system and communities developing observing capabilities for coasts, polar areas, living marine resources, and other locations and communities where climate impacts are acute and evident and where global ocean observations are useful 35

36. Highlights Observations & Monitoring Program Revised OCO Web Site www.oco.noaa.gov • Public, but not announced Announce publicly at end of July. • Contents include: • About our Program • Why We Observe • How We Observe • Observing Products • Ocean Climate Data • Education and Outreach Feedback Welcome! PIs: Review project summaries, feedback to Joel Levy 36

37. Observations & Monitoring Program Summary • Congratulations on success of observing activities to date • Many compelling reasons to continue observing; and opportunities will present themselves to expand and improve the program (be prepared!) • Thank you for your personal and institutional support of the program.

38. Highlights Observations & Monitoring Program Thanks all and the COD Team

41. Observations & Monitoring Program FY11 Highlights – XBT/AMOC Scatter plot of the strength of the AMOC vs total Meridional Heat Transport across 34S. Dots and circles correspond to Earth Simulator (OFES) model and XBT observations, respectively. The black and gray lines indicate the regression of the heat transport to the AMOC from OFES and XBT observations, respectively. Dong et al 2011 Increase in the AMOC strength would cause a 0.054 +/- 0.003 PW increase in MHT at approximately 34S 41