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GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis

GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis. FVCOM-NPZD- Copepod Dynamics. Calanus Diapause. Larval Fish Dynamics. Basin-scale Calanus IBM. Data/model synthesis working group Global-Basin-Regional interactions. Modeling copepod population dynamics in the GB-GOM region

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GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis

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  1. GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis FVCOM-NPZD- Copepod Dynamics Calanus Diapause Larval Fish Dynamics Basin-scale Calanus IBM Data/model synthesis working group Global-Basin-Regional interactions

  2. Modeling copepod population dynamics in the GB-GOM region Cabell Davis, Qiao Hu, Rubao Ji

  3. Stock ̶ Recruitment Number of Recruits Spawning Stock Biomass Biomass at Age GLOBEC Georges Bank Objective: To understand the processes controlling recruitment of cod and haddock and their dominant prey species. Georges Bank Haddock

  4. Georges Bank cod/haddock spawning and larval and juvenile drift (Lough and Manning, 2001) Pratt Haddock larva

  5. The copepods: Centropages Hopcroft Pseudocalanus Calanus Oithona Hopcroft 1 mm Hopcroft Temp & Food Dependent: Fertility Molting Growth Mortality Davis

  6. Results (cont): Broadscale Surveys Cod & Haddock Growth vs Copepods Broad-scale Phytoplankton vs Salinity Salinity Anomaly Copepods vs Year Cod & Haddock Mortality vs Year Cod & Haddock Mortality vs Salinity Anomaly

  7. Greene and Pershing, 2007 Science 1990s Freshening Freshwater in early 1990s traced to Arctic • AO+ winds strengthen Beaufort Gyre • AO- winds release freshwater

  8. Present Work, Synthesis: Models Basin-scale Model Regional-scale Model

  9. Concentration-based Food-web and Copepod Species Models FVCOM Integrated Model System

  10. Phytoplankton Nutrients Detritus Micro-Zooplankton NPZD Copepods Fish larvae CBM CBM IBM

  11. Larval Fish Modeling, Lough, Werner et al. Lough et al. 2005. Fish. Oceanogr. 14:4, 241-262

  12. Physics Nutrients and Phytoplankton Copepod Species Input data FVCOM model Model Output 3D Distributions of T, S, u, v, w, N, P, μZ, D, and copepod species over the period 1995-1999

  13. S1: Uptake (P on N) S1=μmaxf(I)f(N)f(T)P S2: Grazing (Z on P) S2=gmaxf(P)f(T)Z S3: Loss of P S3=λP S4: Remineral. of D S4=εD S5: Loss of Z S5=mZ2 Eggs Nauplii Copepodids Adults Copepod Population Lower Food Web S5 µZ γS5 αS2 S2 βS2 P (1-α-β)S2 S3 S1 N D S4

  14. S1: Uptake (P on N) S1=μmaxf(I)f(N)f(T)P S2: Grazing (Z on P) S2=gmaxf(P)f(T)Z S3: Loss of P S3=λP S4: Remineral. of D S4=εD S5: Loss of Z S5=mZ2 Eggs Nauplii Copepodids Adults Copepod Population 4-Stage (ENCA) Lower Food Web S5 Z γS5 αS2 S2 βS2 P (1-α-β)S2 S3 S1 N D S4

  15. 100 100 100 Time t Time t+1 0 0 0 4-stage, ENCA A E N C (Hu et al., submitted) 0 Time (d) 70 Numerical Diffusion & Mean-Age Model 200 age-stage classes, 13-stages Number of individuals 200 age-stage classes, 13-stages E N C A

  16. Eggs Pseudocalanus, 1995 Nauplii Copepodites Adults

  17. Pseudocalanus adultsMARMAP data, (McGillicuddy et al. 1998) 104 Pseudocalanus C1-C6 Abundance (#/m3) 0-D Mean-age Model 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D

  18. Some questions Chronic vs Episodic Mortality 0.0500 vs 0.0475 106 106 Abundance Abundance 100 100 0 10 0 10 Cohort Age Cohort Age • How do we parameterize mortality? • Whole populations: • Inverse methods: Ohman, Nisbit & Wood; McGillicuddy adjoint; Hall ‘64 • Patchy Predators: • Predation by planktivorous fish, schooling herring/mackerel • Small scale patchiness, ctenophores • Gelatinous predation, sparse data • The recruitment problem, exponential losses,

  19. More Questions: • One-way versus two-way coupling? “NPZD” structured mesozooplankton IBM or CBM? How detailed? i.e., what details matter? Behaviors? DVM, food-seeking, mate-seeking • What is food? Chlorophyll, C, N Food quality? Nutrition: protein, lipid, carbs Encounter rate, turbulence, pred/prey swimming

  20. End

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