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Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW)

Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW). 3SAQS Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol Reflecting Reviewer Comments University of North Carolina (UNC-IE) Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON )

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Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW)

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  1. Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW) 3SAQS Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol Reflecting Reviewer Comments University of North Carolina (UNC-IE) Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON) July 28, 2014

  2. Four set of Comments provided on the draft 3SAQS 2011 Modeling Protocol (April 2014) • Responders: • U.S. EPA Region 8 • Gail Tonnesen, Rebecca Matichuk and Robin Coursen • Mike Barna, NPS • Tammy Thomson, CSU/NPS • Brian Bohlmann, Wyoming DEQ • Responses discussed on June 19, 2008 Conference Call • Response-to-Comments document dated July 22, 2014 • Revised Draft 2011 Modeling Protocol (July 2014)

  3. Revised 3SAQS Draft 2011Modeling Protocol • Main updates were: • Add description of 3SAQS 2015 Work • More details on MPE • Explanations • Snow cover albedo • MOZART vs. GEOS-Chem • MEGAN vs. BEIS • PMDETAIL vs. SMARTFIRE • Clarifications • Typos • Remove citations from footnotes

  4. Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol • 1.0 Introduction • Numerous language changes • Make clearer that 2011 platform not just for O&G • New Section 1.5.2 and Table 1.2 • State Rulemakings that affect O&G Emissions • 2.0 Model Selection • Made clear that CMAQ is being applied and part of MPE and FY modeling (3SAQS 2015 SOW) • 3.0 Episode Selection (None)

  5. Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol • 4.0 Domain Selection • Added 4 km plot  • 5.0 WRF Modeling • Winter O3 in 2015 SOW

  6. Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol • 6.0 Emissions • Added justification for: • MEGAN vs. BEIS (Biogenics) • PMDETAIL vs. SMARTFIRE (Fires) • Questions on SMOKE processing streams and requests for separating specific source categories • Updated Table 6-1 and text to be clearer which source categories are being processed separately • Response-to-Comments responses to request for each source category

  7. Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol • 6.0 Emissions • Clarified Figure6-1 3SAQS 4 km Domain

  8. Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol • 6.0 Emissions • Separated discussion of development of 2011 and 2020 O&G emissions like was done for other source categories • Clarified 2020 O&G projection assumptions: • State-provided – activity growth/decline and no controls analysis • Survey-based – activity growth/decline and controls analysis including no turnover assumption when decline

  9. Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol • 7.0 Photochemical Modeling • Will configure CAMx/CMAQ and WRF for winter ozone event modeling in 3SAQS 2015 SOW • Will include use of high snow cover albedo instead of average value that is used for regional modeling • Included new Table 7-2 listing CMAQ model configuration

  10. Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol • 8.0 Model Performance Evaluation • Ozone performance metrics use 60 ppb threshold • Commit to evaluation for O3/PM precursors • No change, already in Protocol • Evaluation against NH3 measurements • Added description of AMON network and commit to use data in evaluation

  11. Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol • 8.0 Model Performance Evaluation • Vertical Ozone Comparisons • Protocol already mentions evaluation against ~50 ozonesonde released at Boulder, CO in 2011 • Researching questions regarding 2011 UGEWOS ozone soundings • Snow Cover and Albedo • Will address in 3SAQS 2015 SOW when analyzing winter ozone events • Precipitation and Cloud Cover • Evaluation of WRF for monthly PRISM precipitation completed • Questions regarding reliability of PRISM for summer convection • Future plans for use of daily PRISM data analysis fields • Will examine cloud cover for winter ozone events

  12. Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol • 8.0 Model Performance Evaluation • Diagnostic Model Outputs • Diagnostic sensitivity tests addressed in 3SAQS 2015 SOW with input from 3SAQS Technical Committee • Will include BC sensitivity if alternative BCM output available

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