MSE and Coastal Zone Management

1. MSE and Coastal Zone Management Bill de la Mare CMAR February, 2011

3. Adaptive management Human activity World Outcomes Objectives Decision Rules Measurements

4. Adaptive management simulator Performance criteria Model human activity Management Decisions Model world Outcomes Objectives Simulated measurements

6. Aspirations Environment Social Economic Natural Capital Institutional More Best possible

7. Environment Social Economic Natural Capital Institutional More Best possible

8. Environment Social Economic Natural Capital Institutional More Best possible

9. Environment Social Reachable space Economic Natural Capital Institutional More Best possible

10. Dealing with structural uncertainty and scenarios Performance criteria Model human activity 1 Objectives Outcomes Decisions Model World 1 Model World 2 Model human activity 2 Model World 3 . . . . . . Model human activity n Model World n . . . Simulated measurements

11. Component models in C2C MSE Management decision and action models Rural land-use models River and stream biophysical models Urban land-use models Future weather and climate scenarios Water treatment models Future development scenarios Receiving water quality biophysical models Selected taxa models Assessment against objectives: environmental, social, economic EHMP model

12. Sod’s Law of Information The information you … … have is not the information you want … want is not the information you need … need is not the information you can obtain … can obtain costs more than you can afford

13. Objectives of client or organiser Science / Expert facts, relationships, models, maps, scenarios Participatory Integrated Assessment procedures, group interaction, moderation, information presentation, scenarios, surprises Policy facts, relationships, models, maps, scenarios Policy-oriented synthesis facts, relationships, models, maps, scenarios

14. Adaptive management “open loop” simulator Decision maker Model human activity Outcomes Model world Objectives Simulated measurements

15. Adaptive management “closed loop” simulator Simulated decision maker Model human activity Outcomes Model world Objectives Simulated measurements

16. Physical World Management World Investment Management Constraints Objectives Economic activities Management actions Benefits Ecosystem services Natural capital Catch Management Strategy Data Data Data Data Estimation of status Data Data

17. Current paths to science impact Science / Research Assessment Policy development Political decision Information flow Strong / normative Weak / normative Weak Very weak / absent

18. Influence of assessments • External Factors • Historical context • User characteristics • Influences on: • Understanding • Goals • Decisions • Behaviour Relevance Credibility Legitimacy Relevance Credibility Legitimacy • Design of assessment • Process • Product

19. Influence of assessments • External Factors • Historical context • User characteristics • Influences on: • Understanding • Goals • Decisions • Behaviour Relevance Credibility Legitimacy Relevance Credibility Legitimacy • Design of assessment • Process • Product

20. More effective paths to science impact Science / Research Assessment Policy development Political decision Information flow Strong / normative Normative Useability

21. Proposed increment in human activities Region highly Impacted? No Yes Plan with existing/qualitative models Plan with high fidelity models Sustainability Probable? A No Yes Precautionary approach has been satisfied OK

22. A Multiple-use Issues? Yes Multiple-use MSE Single-use MSE No Sustainability Probable? Sustainability Probable? Yes Yes OK Precautionary approach has been satisfied No No Adjust proposed use Rebalance multiple uses

23. Science Challenges Frontier science (combining natural and social sciences) Interaction between natural and socio-economic systems Complexity Irredeemable uncertainty Institutions, governance and policy Competing demands, values and interests Diversity of stakeholders Uncertain management goals Scarce scientific resources