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HOW WILL TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS BE TRANSFORMED IN OUR ENERGY FUTURE? GEORGE A. HUME April 28, 2006

OLLI SLATE ENERGY Spring 06. HOW WILL TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS BE TRANSFORMED IN OUR ENERGY FUTURE? GEORGE A. HUME April 28, 2006. Reference was made to the following internet sites in preparing this presentation: • California Energy Commission: www.energy.ca.gov/

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HOW WILL TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS BE TRANSFORMED IN OUR ENERGY FUTURE? GEORGE A. HUME April 28, 2006

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  1. OLLI SLATE ENERGY Spring 06 HOW WILL TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS BETRANSFORMED IN OUR ENERGY FUTURE?GEORGE A. HUMEApril 28, 2006 Reference was made to the following internet sites in preparing this presentation: • California Energy Commission: www.energy.ca.gov/ • US Dept. of Energy, Energy Info. Admin.: www.eia.doe.gov • US Environmental Protect. Agency: www.epa.gov/otaq/invntory • California Air Resources Board: www.arb.ca.gov/homepage

  2. WHY SHOULD WE BE INTERESTED AND CONCERNED ABOUT FUEL USE IN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS? • As the world’s fifth largest economy, California is really a nation state that runs on energy. • Every day, we spend approximately: • 82 $million for gasoline and diesel • 82 $million for electricity • 22 $million for natural gas • About 38% of the state’s energy consumption is by the transportation sector and currently nearly 100% of the transportation fuel is fossil fuel. • Demand for transportation fuel is projected to increase by 35% in 20 years. • Petroleum will be the primary source of fuel for transportation for the foreseeable future. • Improving vehicle efficiency is currently the most effective means to reduce our dependence on petroleum. • Candidate alternative transportation fuel sources include: • Ethanol/methanol • Gas (LNG, CNG, Propane) • Biodiesel • Gas-to-Liquid fuels • Electric vehicles • Hydrogen • Fuel Cells • In 1999, mobile source emissions of carbon dioxide, methane,and nitrous oxide were responsible for more than 215 million tons of greenhouse gases.

  3. OUTLINE OF FOLLOWING DISCUSSION POINTS • Current status of fuel consumption within the transportation segment • Summary descriptions of Fuel Efficiency and Alternative Fuel Options • The plan to reduce Petroleum Dependency recommended by the CA Energy Commission and the CA Air Resources Board • Fuel consumption projections based on the recommended reduction plan.

  4. PRICING TRENDS OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTSIN CALIFORNIA

  5. PROJECTED VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED (VMT) (2005 - 2025)

  6. PROJECTED DEMAND FOR ON-ROADGASOLINE AND DIESEL

  7. PROJECTED TRANSPORTATION FUEL USE(2000 - 2025)

  8. FUELS FOR AVIATION GAS TURBINES • Several different kerosine related formulations of aviation turbine (jet) fuel are produced to satisfy military and civilian specifications and the unique needs of various operational uses. • Civilian Military • JET A-1 JP-4 (mil. JET B) • JET A JP-5 (naval use) • JET B JP-8 (MIL JET A-1 +) • Annual consumption of aviation gas turbine fuel approximates 20% of the transportation sector’s total petroleum consumption. • Researchers at Penn State have produced very small quantities of a jet fuel (provisionally designated JP-900) comparable to JET A or JP-8, but derived from at least 50% bituminous coal.

  9. TIRES AND FUEL EFFICIENCY • Proper tire inflation can increase fuel efficiency as much as 3%. • Original equipment tires generally have significantly lower rolling resistance and better fuel economy than the average replacements • The CA Energy Commission is funding tests of tire rolling resistance and other characteristics and will publish comparative results to aid consumers in the purchase of replacement tires. • Some tire companies have begun marketing more fuel efficient tires as part of their product lines.

  10. CHARACTERISTICS AND EXPERIENCEIN USING ALTERNATIVE FUELS • Information from EPA, Transportation and Regional Programs Division, fact sheets on the following clean alternative fuels will be reviewed: • Ethanol • Methanol • Liquefied Natural Gas • Propane • Biodiesel • Fischer-Tropsch “manufactured” diesel

  11. DEMAND REDUCTION DUE TO USE OFFUEL EFFICIENCY OPTIONS

  12. DEMAND REDUCTION DUE TO USE OFFUEL SUBSTITUTION OPTIONS

  13. FEDERAL FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDSPROGRAM • Known as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards • Each model year (MY) manufacturers are required to: • - Achieve average of 27.5 mpg for fleet of new passenger cars • - Achieve average of 20.7 mpg for fleet of new light duty trucks (includes minivans and SUVs). Increased to 21.6 for MY 2006 and 22.2 for MY2007 • Despite its flaws, as a result of CAFE, gasoline consumption is down roughly 2.8 million barrels/day from what it would be without CAFE and greenhouse gas emissions translate to a 7% reduction in CO2.

  14. RECOMMENDED PLAN TO REDUCE CALIFORNIA’S PETROLEUM DEPENDENCE(as proposed by CA Energy Commission & Air Resources Board) • I. Adopt a statewide goal of reducing demand for on-road gasoline and diesel to 15% below the 2003 demand level by 2020 and maintain that level for foreseeable future. • II. Work in the national political arena to gain establishment of federal fuel economy standards that double the fuel efficiency of new cars, light trucks and SUVs. • III. Establish a goal to increase use of non-petroleum fuels to 20% of on-road fuel consumption by 2020 and to 30% by 2030.

  15. INCREMENTAL STEPS IN PLAN TO REDUCEPETROLEUM DEPENDENCE • Near-Term Actions (implemented now - 2010) • - Use more fuel efficient replacement tires & inflation • - Improve fuel economy in government owned fleets • - Improve vehicle maintenance • Mid-term Actions (implemented 2010 - 2020) • - Double fuel efficiency of LDV to 40 miles/gallon • - Use natural gas-derived Fischer-Tropsch as 33% • blending agent in diesel fuel • Long-term Actions (implemented 2020 - 2030) • - Introduce fuel cell LDV in 2012, increasing to 10% of • sales by 2020 and 20% by 2030.

  16. DEMAND EFFECTS OF PETROLEUMREDUCTION GOAL

  17. IMPACT OF HYBRIDS AND LT. DUTY DIESELSON PROJECTED GASOLINE USE

  18. OVERALL SUMMARY OF EFFECTS OF OPTIONS IN ON-ROAD DEMAND FORECAST

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