Employment Trends in Metropolitan Washington Region: 2000 Census Insights

1. Technical CommitteeItem # 9 DRAFT 03-27-03 Commuting to Work in the Metropolitan Washington RegionSome Preliminary Results from the 2000 Census Robert E. Griffiths National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board Meeting April 16, 2002

2. Worker-Related Employment Growthin the Metropolitan Washington Region • Overall, more than 2.5 million workers now work in the metropolitan region. • The increase of 170,000 workers between 1990 and 2000 is about one-third of the 600,000 worker increase experienced between 1980 and 1990.

3. Change in Number of Workers by Place of Work • The greatest growth in new workers was in the inner suburbs (Fairfax +98,000, Montgomery +29,000). • In the outer suburbs, Loudoun (+39,000), Prince William (+16,000), and Frederick County, MD (+21,000) all grew. • Employment sites in the core jurisdictions of DC, Arlington and Alexandria collectively lost 60,000 workers between 1990 and 2000.

4. Change in Number of Workers by Place of Residence • The greatest growth in the region’s workforce by place of residence was in the outer suburbs, Loudoun (+42,000), Prince William (+28,000), Stafford (+15,000), and Frederick Co. MD (+21,500). • In the inner suburbs, the number of workers living in Fairfax (+47,000) and Montgomery (+26,000) increased, while the number of workers living in Prince George’s County (-17,500) decreased. • In the core jurisdictions, the number of workers living in DC (-43,500) decreased, while the number of workers living in Arlington (+7,200) and Alexandria (+5,400) increased.

5. Change in Number of Federal and Military Workers by Place of Residence • The decline in the number workers working at employment sites in the core area jurisdictions and the fewer number of workers living in DC and Prince George’s appears to be related to the down-sizing of the Federal government between 1990 and 2000. • The region had 40,000 fewer federal civilian workers and 18,000 fewer military personnel in 2000 than in 1990. The District also had 12,000 fewer local government employees than in 1990.

6. Change in SOV, Carpool and Transit Commuters1990 to 2000 • Workers commuting in Single Occupancy Vehicles (SOV) increased by 14% between 1990 and 2000, while the number of carpool and transit commuters decreased by 10% and 6% respectively. • These commuting mode changes also appear to be related to shifts in commuting destinations in the region between 1990 and 2000.

7. How Census Data is used in Transportation Planning • Extremely useful, comprehensive data source • Large sample of persons and households (1 in 6) • Provides small area neighborhood level data (block groups) • Used to check and update land activity forecasts • Round 6.3 incorporates many Census 2000 updates • Used to check travel demand forecasting models • Jurisdiction to jurisdiction commuting flows • Commuting mode shares

8. Limitations of Census Data in Transportation Planning • Only provides information on worker commuting flows. • Provides information on worker flows, not commuting trips • Only 2 in 10 daily trips are commuting trips • Provides information on usual commuting mode, thus misses occasional carpoolers and transit commuters • Does not account for multiple job-holding • Census data reflect only a specific time period. • 10-year period of time April 1990 to April 2000 • Five-year period 1995 to 2000 much different than 1990 to 1995 • Much has already changed since April 2000 • DC employment growth • High-Tech slump in N. Virginia • Only tells us where we’ve been, not where we are going.

9. Preliminary Round 6.3 Cooperative ForecastsProjected Employment Growth2000-2010 • Between 2000 and 2010 employment in the core jurisdictions is forecast to increase by 13% • Employment in the inner suburbs is forecast to increase by 20% • Employment in the outer suburbs is expected to increase by 35%.