Energy: A Comparative Analysis of Status and Strategies Between India, China and the U.S.

1. Energy: A Comparative Analysis of Status and Strategies Between India, China and the U.S. Vikram Dalal Whitney Professor Electrical and Computer Engr. Iowa State University , USA Fellow, IEEE and American Physical Society

2. Introduction • Energy is a multi-dimensional problem – a national security problem, an economic problem, a pollution problem • What are the dimensions of this problem? • How are three of the major economies coping with it? • Who is winning?

3. Arctic has lost ~30% of its ice in the summer-disaster for Polar Bears

4. Convenient to Blame CO2 Is warming due to CO2? Don’t know! Remember- we are in Inter-glacial warming period CO2 Temp.

5. BUT!

6. Southern Hem.-sea ice may be increasing!

7. What is going on? • Northern ice is melting • Glaciers in northern hemisphere are melting • Glaciers in Southern Island of New Zealand are increasing • Why is north rapidly melting and south not or very slowly? • CO2 cannot do it! • IPCC models are nonsense – they do not predict the rapid melting of northern ice at all

8. Probable answer: • SOOT – C and particles, not CO2 • CO2 does other harm- Changing the acidity of the ocean – destroying corals

9. India Brown/Black soot Leads to rapid melting Of ice

10. China

11. SOOT • From where? • Thermal Power plants, diesel exhaust, wood burning (stoves) • Particles deposit within one week at the poles • C absorbs sunlight – change reflectivity of ice • Positive feedback loop – water reflects less than ice

12. Where? • Northern hemisphere – India, China, Middle East: severely polluting • China builds 88 GW of power plants a year • Southern hemisphere: • Only two major industrial countries- Brazil and Australia • Brazil uses ethanol for cars, and hydroelectric for power • Australia-stringent pollution controls

13. We have met the enemy and it is us. • Local problem – local solution • Severe health impacts • Health effects – every single city in India with > 1 million people has pollution levels higher than WHO standards • ~ 500,000 extra deaths in India because of air pollution (Source: WHO) • ~ 600,000 in China (Source: WHO) • Deaths in Delhi, 2.3% higher because of particulate pollution (Source: Cropper, World Bank)

14. Severe impact on food production : Influence of brown cloud on rice production in India – Reduction in sunlightAnd impact of acid rain Ref. Aufflhammer et al, PNAS, 103(2006)

15. Local Problem-Local solutions • It is good for India and China and the Middle East to reduce pollution • It will automatically reduce melting of ice • Tech. solutions exist – eg Mercedes and VW “Blue Tech” diesels- meet California and EU standards for particulate emissions • Electrostatic precipitators and sulfur dioxide treatment plants for coal burning power plants • The West is way ahead of India and China on this control

16. Acid rain in China (Coal!)

17. Energy : The Economic Problem : Oil • Oil – liquids- needed for transport • Cheap oil is gone • New oil is in very difficult environments • Arctic Ocean, Deep Atlantic • Brazilian field : 200 miles off Rio, in 20,000 feet deep water, another 10,000 feet below the bottom of the ocean • Not cheap • Why is oil at $90/BBl even in recession?

18. Why is oil so expensive? • Saudi Arabia cannot increase • Capacity at will • Iraq can provide another 4-5 • MBPD • Rest of the world- not much

19. Saudi field (Ghawar)is tapped out-needssecondary recovery-there is no simple way to extract oil left-except in Venezuela-Chavez has screwed that up Saudis are Building a pipeline For injecting Water from Gulf Inland 200 miles

20. Heavy oil-in two places,CA and VZ Canada: 352 B Tonnes Venezuela: 349 B tonnes

21. Tar sand in Canada Not cheap. About $ 80/BBl for profitable extraction. Fundamental law of economics: Price = marginal cost If alternatives cost ~$ 80, the oil will sell at $80

22. What about Venezuela? • Who owns it? • CHINA Will! • Just look at who is giving low cost loans to Venezuela, who is signing production and exploration contracts in Venezuela • The US and India are out of it. • Geopolitics and China’s reserve of $ 2 trillion win!

23. Why is China building a port in Gwadar, Baluchistan? To get Iranian Oil. To circumvent Strait of Malacca- a “choke” point that the US and India can choke off

24. China : Energy Intensity vs. GDP

25. China: Electricity generation

26. China: Type of fuel use China is now the world’s largest GHG emitter US uses 1 BT of coal/year, China >2.5 BT

27. China: Power generation by type

28. China: Transportation Energy

29. China: Increase in car population(Approx.) Car sales in China > In US for 2009 and 2010 : Hence the Need for Oil

30. Power capacity (GW,2010)

31. India-energy growth

33. India-Power capacity

34. India: Disastrous record of achievement by Government owned companies

35. India – New paradigm – Pvt. Sector Power • Massive Pvt. sector involvement • Ultra plants, 4000 MW each – all thermal • Gas or coal fired • Gujarat is leading- exporting to other states • Mundra (Kutch)-Near Kandla- 2, 4000+ MW super-critical plants [(Adani Power and Gujarat Coastal(Tatas) ]-Coal • Adanis are ahead of schedule! • Dahej (Surat) : Another 4000 MW planned [Gujarat Coastal Power]-Gas fired Alstom-Siemens building 700 MW (Gas)

36. What about technology?US, India, China • Energy Efficiency • Coal and Gas Power • Automobiles • Refineries • Solar • Wind

37. Carbon Intensity vs GDP Significant Opportunity To reduce Energy/unit of GDP-factors of 2-5

38. Energy conservation-example: Power Plants efficiency • Typical modern US coal fired plant 40% • Modern Hitachi plant (Japan) ~ 49.8%(Highest in the world), ~ca. 2002 • Advanced combined cycle: Coal gasification – use gas in turbines Use exhaust from turbine to preheat water for steam turbine ~ 56-60% efficiency possible-already achieved in Germany, Japan BHEL is setting up one combined cycle plant in Rajasthan

39. Super-critical steam plants

40. China and Japan beating everyone China is exporting this technology! To India!

41. India is increasing efficiency – Pvt sector • Adanis: From China • Tatas: from Toshiba • Combined cycle (Gas turbines + steam turbines) : BHEL, Siemens-Alstom, and GE • Coal plants: Increasing efficiency reduces particulates and CO2 and SO2 emission

42. WHAT IS IGCC 3 BLOCKS IN COMBINED CYCLE POWER PLANT STACK GT POWER ST POWER NG OIL STEAM TURBINE GAS TURBINE STEAM GAS EXHAUST H R S G CLEAN FUEL GAS COAL GASIFICATION GAS CLEAN-UP 2 BLOCKS IN COAL GASIFICATION PLANT

43. China-New IGCC Plant

44. Combined cycle – India is quite good in this for newer plantsBHEL, Siemens-Alstom, GE

45. New Power Sources • Solar • Wind

46. Solar Thermal-Electric – US leads

47. Solar Heat: Archimedes burning Roman Fleet in Syracuse harbor:Why not power from heat? Painting From Galleria Uffizi, Florence

48. World’s largest operating solar-electric plant 64 MW (in Nevada)-solar thermal electric Each shiny tube is a linear parabolic trough focusing sunlight on a tube- heat up water to produce steam-run a turbine

49. Europe planning to set up large plants in North Africa, transmit power through Strait of Gibraltar

50. India – Exceptionally goodconditions in Kutch • Solar intensity excellent • Proximity to cooling water • Can be 100,000 MW+