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This article examines the potential comeback of religion in Western Europe by 2100, citing slowed secularization rates, higher fertility among religious women, and the influence of non-European immigrants and Muslims. The connection between religiosity, conservatism, and political affiliations is explored, highlighting the strategic positioning of political parties towards religious immigrants. Drawing parallels between ethnic and religious cleavages in Europe and the USA, the study anticipates a more religious landscape in Western Europe. (344 words)
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Faith's Comeback? The Demographic Revival of Religion in Western Europe Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London
Conclusion • Northwest Europe (and probably all of western Europe) will likely be more religious in 2100 than in 2000 on current trends because: • Secularisation rates have slowed dramatically, to the point of stalling • Religious women have 10-20% higher fertility, all else equal • Non-European immigrants are far more religious • Muslim immigrants retain their religiosity
Religious people are more conservative, and more conservative people vote for right-wing parties, BUT immigrants vote for left-wing parties • Thus much will depend on how parties – especially conservative ones - position their strategy vis a vis religious immigrants • Ethnic cleavage (Europe) v Religious cleavage (USA)?
