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Three Post-Crisis Questions for Macroeconomic Policy in Southeast Europe

Three Post-Crisis Questions for Macroeconomic Policy in Southeast Europe. Susan Schadler Bank of Greece, SEESOX Conference October 16, 2009. SEEs: A Modest Growth Record. I. Is export orientation important?. Yes, but it has a downside. II. Does using foreign savings hurt growth?.

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Three Post-Crisis Questions for Macroeconomic Policy in Southeast Europe

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  1. Three Post-Crisis Questions for Macroeconomic Policy inSoutheast Europe Susan Schadler Bank of Greece, SEESOX Conference October 16, 2009

  2. SEEs: A Modest Growth Record

  3. I. Is export orientation important?

  4. Yes, but it has a downside.

  5. II. Does using foreign savings hurt growth?

  6. No, but some capital importers suffered in the crisis

  7. III. Can risks be reduced without losing benefits of globalization? • Leave fiscal space for stimulus • Self insure? Seems to help, but why? • Flex or fix? The debate will still rage. • Tax speculative flows? Idea whose time has come.

  8. Should countries self-insure?

  9. Do reserves help in a global crisis?

  10. Time will tell

  11. Do countries save all they invest?

  12. Do countries need to save all they invest? (IV) Countries with public debt ratio below 30 percent Countries with public debt ratio above 30 percent

  13. Do countries need to save all they invest? (IV) Countries with public debt ratio below 40 percent Countries with public debt ratio above 40 percent

  14. How has growth in SEE stack up to other countries? (may be omitted)

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