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Adapting to climate change to protect health – a Pacific view

Adapting to climate change to protect health – a Pacific view. Alistair Woodward School of Population Health University of Auckland. Remais & Zhang. EHP 2011;119(7):893-5. Climate change and health: why an extra degree or two (or 4) matters.

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Adapting to climate change to protect health – a Pacific view

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  1. Adapting to climate change to protect health – a Pacific view Alistair Woodward School of Population Health University of Auckland

  2. Remais & Zhang. EHP 2011;119(7):893-5

  3. Climate change and health: why an extra degree or two (or 4) matters • Variability and frequency of extreme events more important than average conditions

  4. Average temperature, Samoa, 1961-1990 (blue) and 2070-2099 (red)

  5. Russia 2010: 1 month heatwave (38+) 55,000 excess deaths 1 million ha burnt 25% drop in crop yields US$15 billion loss 'Mega-heatwaves' such as the 2003 and 2010 events broke the 500-yr long seasonal temperature records over approximately 50% of Europe. According to regional multi-model experiments, the probability of a summer experiencing 'mega-heatwaves’ will increase by a factor of 5 to 10 within the next 40 years. Barriopedro et al Science 21 March 2011 10.1126/science.1201224

  6. Climate change and health: why should an extra degree or two (or 4) matter? • Compared with human populations, physical and ecological systems are relatively open to environmental change and may be exquisitely sensitive to temperature rise

  7. Increased sea surface temperatures associated with coral bleaching and increased rates of ciguatera (fish poisoning) in SW Pacific

  8. Relation between temperature and development of the malaria parasite (Extrinsic Incubation Period) Patz PNAS 2006;103:5635

  9. Climate change and health: why should an extra degree or two (or 4) matter? • Sea level rise, storms, drought and crop failure may displace millions of people, causing poverty, conflict and violence

  10. Geographical distribution of CC-attributable deaths in 2000 Deaths from malaria & dengue fever, diarrhoea, malnutrition, flooding, and (in OECD countries) heatwaves WHO regions scaled according to estimated mortality (per million people) in the year 2000, attributable to the climate change that occurred from 1970s to 2000 (Patz, Gibbs, et al, 2007: based on McMichael et al 2004)

  11. Cumulative Emissions of Greenhouse Gases Kiribati – 0.2 tons CO2 per person per year Return flight Auckland to Florence (economy) – 36874 km, 8.8 tons CO2 per passenger Countries scaled according to cumulative emissions (billions of tonnes CO2-equivalent) up to 2002. (Patz, Gibbs, et al, 2007)

  12. Geographical distribution of CC-attributable deaths in 2000 Deaths from malaria & dengue fever, diarrhoea, malnutrition, flooding, and (in OECD countries) heatwaves WHO regions scaled according to estimated mortality (per million people) in the year 2000, attributable to the climate change that occurred from 1970s to 2000 (Patz, Gibbs, et al, 2007: based on McMichael et al 2004)

  13. Examples of health adaptations

  14. Adaptation is important, but so is mitigation

  15. The emissions gap – the difference between where we are heading and where we need to go Potential gains from existing technology, better implemented Contributions required from new technologies World Development Report 2010

  16. But low carbon economic growth might be health enhancing

  17. Adapting to climate change to protect health – a Pacific view Alistair Woodward School of Population Health University of Auckland

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