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Market Cycles: Election Years

Market Cycles: Election Years. Eric Lane Associate Manager, Finance Sector. Disclaimer. My…… political philosophy …… political history Why none of this matters. A Brief History of Time. How HAVE the markets performed during Presidential election years?. S&P 500: 1/1999 – 12/2007.

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Market Cycles: Election Years

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  1. Market Cycles:Election Years Eric Lane Associate Manager, Finance Sector

  2. Disclaimer My…… political philosophy …… political history Why none of this matters

  3. A Brief History of Time How HAVE the markets performed during Presidential election years?

  4. S&P 500: 1/1999 – 12/2007

  5. The 4-year Cycle: 1950-2004

  6. 2008 – A Different Kind of Election Now onto the present……

  7. The Iowa Electronic Market Democrat or Republican

  8. The Iowa Electronic Market Democrat Nomination

  9. Democrat President in 2008? Traditional Winners Traditional Losers • Metals • Trade Regulations • Alternate Energy and Environmental Cleanup • Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae • Homebuilders • Oil and Gas • Pharmaceuticals • Insurance Providers • Defense

  10. Big Pharma PHLX Drug Index

  11. Big Oil PHLX Oil Services Index

  12. Barack Obama (D) Senator from Illinois

  13. Policy Platform • Cracking down on mortgage fraud • Helping homeowners avoid foreclosure • Middle Class Tax Relief • "Making Work Pay" credit • American Opportunity Tax credit • Retirement Security • Health Care Reform • Alternative Energy

  14. Hillary Clinton (D) Senator from New York

  15. Policy Platform • Ending the foreclosure crisis • Stimulus Package • High-wage job growth • Health Care Reform • Leveling the Economic Playing Field • Strategic Energy Fund • Special Interest reform • Health Care • Trade

  16. John McCain (R) Senator from Arizona

  17. Policy Platform • Pro-Growth Tax Policy • Keep tax rate low • Make permanent Bush income and investment tax cuts • Cut the corporate tax rate • Ban Internet and cell phone taxes • Social Security and Medicare • Trade • Health Care • Market-based energy reform

  18. The Best Option? Gridlock.

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