NOAA/NWS Forecast Uncertainty Service Evolution (NFUSE) Steering Team

1. Briefing to Operations Committee NOAA/NWS Forecast Uncertainty Service Evolution (NFUSE) Steering Team Paul Hirschberg April 18, 2007

2. Outline • Purpose • Issue • Background • Discussion • Alternatives • Recommendation

3. Purpose • Decision: • Sanction formation of NOAA/NWS Forecast Uncertainty Service Evolution (NFUSE) Steering Team

4. Issue • How to corporately address need/opportunity to improve generation and communication of forecast uncertainty products and services • How to address and respond to 2006 NRC Report, “Completing the Forecast. Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts”

5. BackgroundWhy the Focus on Forecast Uncertainty? • Most NWS (and other provider) products and services are based on single-value “deterministic” forecasts • However, all hydrometeorological forecasts are inherently uncertain • NRC Report: • States availability and use of forecast uncertainty information is potentially of great value to society – will improve decision making • Calls on NWS to take leadership role in transitioning to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into hydrometeorological prediction • Service Evolution Concept: • Forecast uncertainty needed to support future “Hazard/High Impact” Services • NOAA Strategic Plan: • Better, quicker, and more valuable weather and water information to support improved decisions

6. BackgroundCurrent State • Research advances and increases in computational power are enabling ensemble-modeling and other techniques to better quantify forecast uncertainty • Increasing numbers of planning, development, and prototyping efforts within NWS (in addition to NOAA and the hydrometeorological community at large) looking at forecast uncertainty • However, there is no comprehensive corporate NWS approach and plan to identify and validate user needs and to develop and implement responsive products and services based on sound science and end-to-end solutions

7. BackgroundReason for NFUSE Steering Team • In Jan 07, informal group began looking at forecast uncertainty from corporate perspective • Purpose not to hinder or duplicate ongoing efforts, but rather to corporately plan for success by ensuring necessary components of an “end-to-end” forecast uncertainty information system are accounted for • Group has met several times and requests sanctioning as NOAA/NWS Forecast Uncertainty Service Evolution (NFUSE) Steering Team

8. DiscussionProposed NFUSE Terms of Reference • Vision • NWS provides forecast uncertainty products, services, and information meeting customer, partner, and forecaster needs • Mission • Advise and coordinate NWS activities related to development, implementation, and evolution of forecast uncertainty products, services and information

9. DiscussionProposed NFUSE Terms of Reference • Roles & Responsibilities • Ensure corporate communication and coordination of forecast uncertainty activities • Ensure communication pertaining to forecast uncertainty within NOAA and external community including user groups, private sector, and external R&D activities such as THORPEX • Develop and sustain a corporate NOAA/NWS Plan for generating and communicating forecast uncertainty information • Use OSIP as appropriate • Recommend PPBES information to NOAA Program Managers and Goals • Brief NWS Corporate Board on uncertainty forecast matters, e.g., response to NRC Report

10. DiscussionProposed NFUSE Terms of Reference • Scope of Authority and Limitations: • Report to Operations Committee of NWS Corporate Board • Coordinate activities with NCEP, Regions, and HQ Offices, OAR Labs, other LOs, Programs and Goals and related NWS initiatives such as Service Evolution • Create work teams and other subordinate groups as needed • TOR reviewed annually by Operations Committee

11. DiscussionProposed NFUSE Terms of Reference • Membership • One principal (voting member) from: • PR (Ken Waters) • AR (James Partain) • WR (Andy Edman) • SR (Bernard Meisner) • CR (Pete Browning) • ER (Ken Johnson) • Other stakeholders, subject matter experts, observers as appropriate • Chair: Nominated by Principals and selected by Ops. Committee • NCEP (Zoltan Toth) • OST (Paul Hirschberg) • OCWWS (LeRoy Spayd) • Service Evolution (Suzanne Lenihan) • OSPP (John Sokich) • OHD (Frank Richards) • OAR (Tom Hamill)

12. DiscussionProposed NFUSE Terms of Reference • CY 07 Activities: • Develop NOAA/NWS plan for generating and communicating forecast uncertainty products, services, and information • Work with Programs and Goals to submit forecasts uncertainty capability improvements to FY10-14 PPBES • Submit and champion requirements and related implementing projects into OSIP

13. DiscussionNFUSE Strategy for Developing Plan • Identify ongoing activities • Consider NRC Report Recommendations -- Bob Ryan met with Group • Consider NCEP Ensemble Workshop Recommendations, THORPEX • Incorporate user, forecaster, and partner needs • Leverage knowledge (HSD/OHD, OAR, other Agencies, Academia, etc.) • Work with “Weather Enterprise” early on -- Meeting with Ray Ban • Plan for short-term (0-3 yr) “quick winners” (low-hanging fruit) as well as longer-term > 3 yrs.

14. DiscussionImportant NFUSE Milestones • Operations Committee Briefing Apr. 2007 • FY 10-14 PPBES Planning Input May 2007 • 1st Draft Forecast Uncertainty Plan Sept. 2007 • FY 10-14 PPBES Programming Input Oct. 2007 • Final Forecast Uncertainty Plan Mar. 2008 • Use plan FY 11-15 PPBES Apr. 2008 • OSIP and other Projects Ongoing

15. Alternatives and Recommendation • Alternatives 1) Sanction NFUSE Steering Team and approve TOR as is • Direct revision of team composition and/or TOR, and consider later • Focus planning and other forecast uncertainty coordination activities directly through Service Evolution Lead 4) Status Quo – Do not form team or otherwise focus on forecast uncertainty – allow it to mature through ongoing activities • Recommendation • Option 1 • Decision