1 / 14

Afghanistan Time to move to Sustainable Jobs

Afghanistan Time to move to Sustainable Jobs. International Labour Organisation Afghanistan May 2012. One programme 3 tracks for post conflict employment creation and reintegration . Peace Negotiations. Reintegration. Transition. Stabilization. Hosting , Local Communities.

pilis
Download Presentation

Afghanistan Time to move to Sustainable Jobs

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. AfghanistanTime to move to Sustainable Jobs International Labour Organisation Afghanistan May 2012

  2. One programme 3 tracks for post conflict employment creation and reintegration Peace Negotiations Reintegration Transition Stabilization Hosting, LocalCommunities Peace Agreement Pre-assessments Target groups NationWide andDecent Work Pre-Peace Accord Planning Pre-PeaceAccordPlanning SustainableEmployment creation PeaceBuildingProcess Track A – Stabilizing income generation & emergency Employment Track B – Local Economic recovery for employment opportunities & reintegration Track C - Sustainable Employment creation and Decent Work

  3. Demographic dividend or time bomb? Population pyramid for Afghanistan, 2010 (unit: thousand) 0-14 = 49% Data Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm, accessed on 12 April 2012.

  4. Overview of Afghanistan labour market Static Picture as of 2008 12.06 million working-age population 8.03 million in labour force (66.6% LF participation rate) 823,000 unemployed (7.1% unemployment rate) 3.87 million underemployed (48.2% underemployment rate) 6.18 million in vulnerable employment (77.0% of LF) Dynamic Picture Over 400,000 Afghans joining the labour force /yr.

  5. Will Afghanistan produce sufficient number of decent jobs?

  6. What may be happening in the market (apart from the expected impact of transition) Manufacturing base being replaced by cheap imports More immigrants coming to Afghanistan Investors refraining from investment

  7. Currencies of major trade partners depreciate Compared to 2002, the currencies depreciated against USD by: TJS -67% IRR -53% PKR -45% TRY -11% While AFN FOREX remains stable (+1.4%) Data Source) World Development Indicators & Global Development Finance database

  8. Trade data remain approximate … Probable smuggling gaps with top five export and import partner countries Unit : US Dollar thousand * Uzbekistan's export figure is the mirror data reported by Afghanistan Source) UN COMTRADE

  9. But reported imports from Iran, Pakistan & Turkey jumped significantly Trade with Iran Trade with Pakistan Trade with Turkey Source) UN COMTRADE

  10. Even imports from China, India & Russia sky-rocketed Trade with China Trade with India Trade with Russia Source) UN COMTRADE

  11. Increasing imports of competing products – a source of concern Competing imports from Iran Competing imports from Pakistan Source) UN COMTRADE

  12. Are the policy responses right? Important structural impediments are addressed in NPPs, but no overarching strategy on competitiveness and job creation Analyses of sectoral strategies may be inaccurate or outdated. PDPs favor Soviet type of investment plans without serious consideration of competitiveness, feasibility and private sector-led investment Impact of community livelihood interventions dubious

  13. Recommendations Towards more & better jobs Re-evaluate competitiveness of strategic sectors and Afghan labour in a regional trade environment Track B: Revisit strategies on local economic recovery for employment opportunities and reintegration Track C: Revisit consistency of national development policies towards sustainable job creation and decent work

  14. Thank you for your attention! Any questions of clarification?

More Related