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ETIS and TRANS-TOOLS v1 Freight demand

ETIS and TRANS-TOOLS v1 Freight demand. Ming Chen NEA Transport research and training CTS-Seminar European and National Freight demand models, Stockholm, 1 March 2011. agenda. Context of ETIS and TRANS-TOOLS ETIS in short ETIS BASE freight demand TRANS-TOOLS demand model

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ETIS and TRANS-TOOLS v1 Freight demand

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  1. ETIS and TRANS-TOOLS v1 Freight demand Ming Chen NEA Transport research and training CTS-Seminar European and National Freight demand models, Stockholm, 1 March 2011

  2. agenda • Context of ETIS and TRANS-TOOLS • ETIS in short • ETIS BASE freight demand • TRANS-TOOLS demand model • WORLDNET • ETISplus freight demand

  3. ETIS TRANS-TOOLS Data, Models, Assumptions and Comparability of results Base year data (regions, commodities, etc) Scenarios Other assumptions Models (parameters, type of model) Results

  4. Context of the models and projects

  5. Context of the models and projects - history

  6. Context of the models and projects - ongoing

  7. What is ETIS? • European Transport policy Information System. • Transport Database • Online storage and retrieval • Data Exchange Format • Meta data system • Community of users

  8. Background ETIS • Transport modelling is essential to policy assessment and development • Transport models require recent, reliable and harmonised data • Current European data situation is characterised by • Fragmentation of data sources • Missing data • Lack of harmonisation • Duplication of data collections • Difficulty of access and use of data

  9. Expected outcome ETISplus • One single database containing the most recent transport related data for the EU and for main links with other world regions • Improved data quality, detail and availability according to users needs • Existing EU transport models should be able to benefit from the data • Other data influencing transport activities should also be collected (e.g. socio-economic, mobility patterns,, prices, taxes …) • Data for validation of modelling results should collected • Validation by relevant stakeholders of approach and of data

  10. ETIS web site

  11. ETIS document repository

  12. ETIS GIS editing and viewing

  13. ETIS data repository

  14. Transport chains

  15. Transport chain record structure • Origin • Transhipment 1 • Transhipment 2 • Destination • Mode at origin • Mode between transhipment points • Mode at destination • Commodity • Cargo type • Containerised • Other typology • Measuring unit

  16. Top-down approach

  17. Freight transport chain OD details

  18. Possible data extractions • Trade matrices: • Origin of commodities • Destination of commodities • Mode at origin • Mode at destination • Commodity • Cargo type • Containerised • Other typology • Measuring unit

  19. Possible data extractions • Transport matrices: • Origin of vehicles/vessels • Destination of vehicles/vessels • Mode • Commodity • Cargo type • Containerised • Other typology • Measuring unit

  20. Possible data extractions • Transhipment matrices: • Transhipment location • Origin of commodities • Destination of commodities • Mode incoming • Mode outgoing • Commodity • Cargo type • Containerised • Other typology • Measuring unit

  21. Freight models TRANS-TOOLS v1 Blue print

  22. TRANS-TOOLS v1 Blue print

  23. TT Trade Model

  24. TRANS-TOOLS freight model Trade modelling P20030033ppt

  25. TT MS Model • Demand Segments • Availability of transport modes • Commodity group • Location of origin and destination • Distance • Total annual tonnage

  26. TT MS Model • Multinomial logit model • Equation: Where: M: Set of available modes Pm|cij: Probability Vm|cij: Systematic utility xcijmk: Explanatory variable βmk: Logit parameter

  27. Working of the logistic module (1) (Maaike Snelder, TNO, the Netherlands) Aim: determine the location and usage of distribution centres

  28. Working of the logistic module (2) • Rank the regions according to their attractiveness for logistic activities • Build chains for: • Each chain type (direct, EDC, NDC, EDC and NDC) • 5 different locations for the DC’s • each possible mode • Assign the tonnes to the chains

  29. Tonnes lifted at distribution centres

  30. Issues • Data definitions are not main stream, • So comparison with other Commission figures not possible. • Port choice in the chain matrix defined, but also part of logistics; fixed

  31. WORLDNETSurface Modes: Chain Estimation Source: Universität Karlsruhe (TH), KIT, Institute for Economic Policy Research (IWW)

  32. WORLDNETStep 3: Mode Chain Builder • Construct Sequence of Modes • Mode Interchanges eg. Seaports • Estimate mode chain

  33. WORLDNETInterchange Selection • Computation requires smart filtering of network nodes. • Ports can be filtered by product mode of appearance e.g. dry bulk, containerised. • Also by location. • Generating bounding boxes for port choice done with heuristic.

  34. Issues • Still many data gaps on the input side, quality of results can be improved • Data definitions are not main stream • What is in ETIS or WORLDNET is not necessarily in TRANS-TOOLS

  35. ETISplus Freight demand data • ETIS-RAW (raw sources assembled for ETIS-EDIT) • Comext (2 tables – EU trade data) • UN comtrade (1 table, non EU trade data) • Eurostat transport statistics ( 14 tables, EU transport data) • railway schedules shipping schedules (2 tables) • input/output tables • logistics • land use/employment • fleet sizes • externalities • ETIS-REFINE (all NUTS 3 O/D matrices) • harmonised international trade (P/C) • Road transport OD • Inland waterways transport OD • Rail transport OD • Sea transport OD • Air transport OD • Pipeline transport OD • Sea ports throughput (node based flows) • Rail terminal throughput • ETIS-MODELED • Transport chain matrix

  36. Issue • Still some work to be done in TRANS-TOOLS v3 on the chain building

  37. Further information ETISplus • Website: www.etisplus.eu • ETISplus seminar in May 2011, Brussels • NEA Transport research and training • Ming Chen, mch@nea.nl • Zoetermeer, Netherlands

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