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LATIN AMERICAN PANEL PANAMA 8-9 February 2007

LATIN AMERICAN PANEL PANAMA 8-9 February 2007. Peter M. Swift. ISSUES OVERVIEW. AGENDA: Fleet developments - Oil and Chemical fleets - Incident record (2006) EU Issues - Ship Source Pollution Directive (Status report) - Maritime Safety Package III

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LATIN AMERICAN PANEL PANAMA 8-9 February 2007

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  1. LATIN AMERICAN PANELPANAMA8-9 February 2007 Peter M. Swift

  2. ISSUES OVERVIEW AGENDA: • Fleet developments - Oil and Chemical fleets - Incident record (2006) • EU Issues - Ship Source Pollution Directive (Status report) - Maritime Safety Package III - Green paper on future maritime policy for the EU - EU Competition Rules • US Issues - California Air Resources Board Air Emission Standards - Massachusetts lawsuit - Lawsuit on Ballast Water discharges • Panama Canal Expansion & Toll increases • Other issues - IACS Early Warning System - ISGOTT revision - Port State Control / EQUASIS data analysis - Human Element in Shipping Committee - INTERTANKO Databases and Benchmarking systems • 2007 Annual Meeting and Tanker Event

  3. Tanker fleet development m dwt No Assumptions for period until 2009: Scheduled phase out for the period: 15.5 m dwt including 4.2 m dwt that should already have been phased out earlier than 2007 Assumed removals 2007 – 2009: 29 m dwt (including conversion + other demolition)

  4. Record ordering - despite high prices (mdwt) 80 70 1993 and earlier sizes except 60 Handy VLCCs were defined differently Chem/Spec) 50 Panamaxes 40 Aframaxes 30 Suezmaxes VLCCs 20 10 0 1998 1990 2006 2000 2001 1988 1989 1991 1992 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 2002 2003 2004 1993 2005

  5. Demolition: slowed in recent years(mdwt) 30 Others/NK Bangladesh 25 Pakistan India 20 Taiwan 15 Korea China 10 5 0 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

  6. Average age steadily reducing (tankers above 10,000 dwt) 16 14 12 10 8 6 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Years

  7. Double-hull percentage rising steadily 100 15 18 21 24 27 32 33 % dwt share* : 80 41 49 SH/DB/DS 78 60 94 DH 85 82 40 79 76 * Assumes 73 68 67 phase out 59 51 according to 20 regulations 22 (rounded 6 upwards, 25 0 years after 2010 1991 1997 End 06 End 10 End 03 End 04 End 05 End 07 End 08 End 09 End 02 . %

  8. (Single Hull) Tanker Phase Out- an “uncertainty” post 2010 70 MARPOL (min phase out - trading of SH 60 until 25 years) EU + no SH after 2010 50 OPA90 40 30 20 10 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 m dwt Assumptions : MARPOL phase out allows for trading until the age of 25 years old, max 2015 The EU alternative does not allow SH trading after 2010. DB/DS can trade until the age of 25 years old, but here cut off 2015

  9. Chemical Carrier Fleet • 70% of fleet double hull, almost all of remainder double bottom or double side – average age 11.5 years, • Large order book (37% of existing fleet by dwt), • Significant changes to MARPOL Annex II from Jan 2007, principally in carriage of veg oils – several uncertainties.

  10. Chemical tanker fleet by hull number

  11. Chemical tanker fleet and age distribution 14 12 Age 10 years : 18+ 3,000 - 17,000 dwt: 32% orderbook 8 15-27 20-24 6 15-19 4 0-14 Source: 2 Inge Steensland 55% 37% 38% 18% 0 Shipbrokers Existing On order Existing On order Existing On order Existing On order 3-10,000 dwt 10-17,000 dwt 17--30,000 dwt 30,000 dwt + m dwt

  12. Reclassification of Annex II products

  13. Major exporters of vegetable oils m ts

  14. Further information available at www.intertanko.com The Revisions to MARPOL Annex II (entry into force 1/1/2007) A Practical Guide November 2006

  15. Changes in the pipeline Chemical Carriers: • Proposals from the Inter-industry Group to amend SOLAS to provide for the application of inert gas to new oil tankers of less than 20,000 DWT and to new chemical tankers. • Review of Dangerous Cargo Endorsements through STW.

  16. Accidental oil spill from tankers and tanker trade m bn tonne miles m ts

  17. Reported tanker incidents reducing – until 2005/6 !! 1000 800 420 600 War 336 H & M 252 400 F & E 168 Grounding 84 Collis. 200 Misc 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 0 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 87 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 06 86 88 05 Number

  18. Tanker incidents 2006 by type

  19. EU Issues • Ship Source Pollution Directive (Status report) • Maritime Safety Package III • Green paper on future maritime policy for the EU • EU Competition Rules

  20. Maritime Safety Package III • Revision of Port State Control Directive • Vessel Traffic Monitoring Directive • Athens Convention + extension • Accident Investigation Directive • Civil Liability / Financial Guarantees • Flag State Audit / Related Issues • Revision of Classification Society Directive

  21. EU Issues • Ship Source Pollution Directive (Status report) • Maritime Safety Package III • Green paper on future maritime policy for the EU (Maritime space/ocean interests) • EU Competition Rules

  22. US Issues • California Air Resources Board Air Emission Standards • Massachusetts lawsuit • Lawsuit on Ballast Water discharges

  23. Panama Canal Expansion Project details • Referendum 22 October 2006 (78% yes) • 7 years to complete (completion 2014 for the Centennial of the PC opening) • New Dimensions for third lane: • 49 metres (160 ft) Beam • 366 metres (1,200 ft) LOA • 15 metres (50 ft) Draught • Up to about 170,000 DWT (12,000 TEU)

  24. Panama Canal Tolls current & proposed Current and future tariffs: Tankers Current: 5/2007: 5/2008: 5/2009: L: $2.96 $3.29 (+11%) $3.70 (+12.5%) $3.98 (+7.6%) B: $2.35 $2.61 (+11%) $2,94 (+12.6%) $3.18 (+7.5%) (based on 1st 10,000 PC/UMS net tonnage)

  25. Panama Canal TollsProposals for increases over next 3 years Initial industry observations: • Significantly higher than expected increases for next 3 years - with only 3 months notice. [Expected 3.5% real annual hike] • Affects existing contracts and spot market • Uncertainty/ weakens confidence over future business planning [Planned increases for post 2009?] • Large upfront increases for doubtful (?) future benefits [Mostly capacity debottlenecking and extra 0.3-0.5 m. draft] • Industry seeks gradual & predictable increases

  26. Other Issues • IACS Early Warning System • Port State Control / EQUASIS data analysis • ISGOTT revision • Human Element in Shipping Committee • INTERTANKO Databases and Benchmarking systems (TVD, TMSA, Op costs/performance, STS)

  27. ISGOTT The International Safety Guide for Oil Tankers and Terminals Fifth Edition (2006) Principal changes are the recommendations covering: • Operating procedures with the introduction of the ISM Code • Operating procedures for Tank Cleaning – moving to “Inerted” or “Not Inerted”

  28. Other Issues • IACS Early Warning System • Port State Control / EQUASIS data analysis • ISGOTT revision • Human Element in Shipping Committee (Initially Availability, Training and Compliance) • INTERTANKO Databases and Benchmarking systems (TVD, TMSA, Op costs/performance, STS)

  29. Annual Meeting & Tanker Event 2007 Houston ’07 March 25 Golf tournament Associate Members’ meeting 26-27 ExCom, Council 26-27 Tanker Event 28 Poseidon Challenge AGM • Tanker Chartering seminar

  30. Executive Committee Meeting Council Meeting Vetting Seminar Casual Dinner Focus Sessions - Technical Issues - Air emissions - Common Structural Rules - Chemicals & Biofuels - LNG Market Annual Meeting & Tanker Event 2007Monday 26 March

  31. Annual Meeting & Tanker Event 2007Tuesday 27 March • Council meeting wrap-up • Opening – Keynote speakers • Tanker & Oil Market session • Informal dinner

  32. Annual Meeting & Tanker Event 2007Wednesday 28 March • Poseidon Challenge day • Annual General Meeting • Gala Dinner

  33. Muchas Gracias For more information, please visit: www.intertanko.com www.shippingfacts.com www.maritimefoundation.com

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