How to get the Future of Tourism out of Today’s Consumer Surveys - Prospects for Senior and Kids Travel in Germany -

1. How to get the Future of Tourism out of Today’s Consumer Surveys - Prospects for Senior and Kids Travel in Germany - Martin Lohmann & Johanna Danielsson Dept. of Business Psychology University of Applied Sciences Wilschenbrucher Weg 84 a D-21335 Lüneburg lohmann@fhnon.de research+development Pipudden 2 S-93090 Arjeplog johanna-danielsson@telia.com This document is part of a presentation and not complete without the oral explanations. © with the authors, Lüneburg/Arjeplog, 2004

2. Agenda Agenda • Demographic trends and their impact on tourism demand • The “Reiseanalyse” (RA) travel survey • Holiday trips of seniors • Holiday trips with children • Conclusion

3. Demographic Trends • People are getting older. • Number of children is declining;Dissolution of traditional family patterns. ?How will demographic changes influence consumer behaviour? • Tourism consumer surveys can provide appropriate data.

4. The “Reiseanalyse” • The “Reiseanalyse” (RA) is a yearly (since 1970) representative survey, • covering holiday travel behaviour, intentions and attitudes of Germans, • conducted every year with a comparable set of questions and based on a random sample of 7,500 face-to-face interviews. • Users: tour operators, hotel chains, regional, national and international tourism organisations / ministries and other companies in the tourism industry. www.fur.de F.U.R

5. Demographic Trends Tourism consumer surveys can be helpful in providing data on: • the importance a segment has, • the specific behaviour patterns of a segment, • the direction and degree of change. Two examples …

6. Holiday trips of seniors • First Example: Senior Travellers

7. Holiday trips of seniors • Growing number of senior citizens = major marketing challenge Research questions: • What structural changes are to expect in the “tourist society”? • Less trips due to a lower travel propensity of elderly people? • Will future seniors travel differently?

8. Holiday trips of seniors Data source: F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA 1972-2004

9. Holiday trips of seniors Old people travel less Data source: F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA 1972-2004

10. Holiday trips of seniors Old people travel less ≠ people travel less when getting older Data source: F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA 1972-2004

11. Holiday trips of seniors • Necessity of a longitudinal study for monitoring travel patterns throughout life-cycles. • We have re-analyzed 33 years of RA data, by following the cohorts (= ascending series of age groups) during their life cycle and looking at basic indicators for their holiday travel behaviour.

12. Holiday trips of seniors Data source: F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA 1972-2004

13. Holiday trips of seniors Holiday Travel Propensity for two German generations over time % 55 yrs. 25 yrs. 75 yrs. 45 yrs. Data source: F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA 1972-2004

14. Holiday trips of seniors Own calculations based on F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA 2004and pop. predictions for Germany

15. Holiday trips of seniors Lessons learned: • People (cohorts) stick to their travel behaviour when getting older. • Future senior travellers will behave differently than today’s. • But this change is within limits foreseeable:more senior trips with different preferences (reasons: demographic change + different behaviour patterns of cohorts + rigidity). • Presented approach is a useful tool for tourism marketing.

16. Holiday trips of seniors Holiday trips with children • Second Example: Trips with children

17. Holiday trips with children Research questions: • Will new segments replace the old-fashioned family trip? • Are tailor-made offers for single parents profitable for the tourism industry? • Do one-kid-families need more attention? • Will holiday trips for seniors travelling with (grand-)children meet a growing demand?

18. Holiday trips with children Methodological approach: Segmentation • Volume of segments in society and in tourism demand?: How many? • Development of segments?: demographic trends? • Tourist consumer behaviour of segments?: Anything specific?

19. Holiday trips with children • 66 mn trips, 14 mn with kids = 22%; share has been stable for more than a decade • Trend in society: - 8% less children 2000 - 2010, rising share of 1 kid households • In tourism:- 8% ≈ 13 mn trips, but actual decrease will be less German Holiday Trips 2003 trips with kids > 13 yrs. 22% trips without kids 78% n = 8,067; all holiday trips Data source: F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA 2004:

20. Holiday trips with children Segmentation of Holiday Trips 2002 59% 9% 4% % Data source: F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA 2003

21. Holiday trips with children Single parent holiday with kids: • Less than 4% of all kids-trips (0.5 mn trips); mostly don’t travel as single parents; even with the share of single parents in society rising (+12%) small volume in tourism (0.6 mn trips) Seniors + kids • Relevant share (2003: 12%); growing interest & possibilities; specific behaviour. One-kid-trips • Already the standard (59%); further increase to be expected; specific behaviour.

22. Holiday trips with children • Will new segments replace the old-fashioned family trip?: No • Are tailor-made offers for single parents profitable for the tourism industry?: No • Do one-kid-families need more attention?: Yes! • Will holiday trips for seniors travelling with (grand-)children meet a growing demand?: Yes!

23. Conclusion • Consumer survey data can be useful in determining trends in tourism, their size, speed and relevance. • It thus allows for a realistic view of the actual situation and enables us to draw appropriate conclusions for the future.

24. Conclusion This way of consumer survey data based trend researchin tourism helps to understand the dynamics and “mechanics” within the segments.

25. Thank you for listening