Weather Products for Phoenix Air Quality Forecast

1. Weather Products for Phoenix Air Quality Forecast Wednesday, April 9, 2004

2. 16 KM IR Satellite Image

3. 16 KM IR Satellite Image L L L Late Friday/early Saturday Sunday evening Ozone Transport Next Friday

4. Tucson Upper-Air Sounding (12Z)

5. Flagstaff Upper-Air Sounding (12Z)

6. Surface Map

7. MSLP 1000-500 mb Chart

8. 850 mb Chart

9. 700 mb Chart

10. 500 mb Chart

11. 300 mb Chart

12. NGM MOS Numerical Model PHX SCW NGM MOS GUIDANCE 4/09/04 1200 UTC DAY /APR 9 /APR 10 /APR 11 / Fri Sat Sun HOUR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 MN/MX 63 87 59 85 TEMP 77 83 82 76 72 67 65 67 78 85 85 77 70 65 64 61 77 83 83 DEWPT 46 45 44 45 48 50 50 47 43 40 38 37 36 38 38 39 37 34 33 CLDS BK BK BK SC SC SC SC SC CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL WDIR 08 26 28 18 11 10 09 10 16 26 27 25 29 23 18 09 07 27 28 WSPD 02 07 07 04 05 04 08 09 04 09 15 12 09 10 06 07 10 14 10 POP06 9 11 4 1 3 5 2 0 0 POP12 14 4 6 0 QPF 0/ 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 TSV06 20/ 0 16/ 2 6/ 0 3/ 0 7/14 4/ 4 5/ 6 2/ 0 3/21 TSV12 28/ 0 8/ 0 10/17 6/ 4 PTYPE R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R POZP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 POSN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 SNOW 0/ 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 CIG 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 VIS 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 OBVIS N N N N N N N N N N N N N

13. GFS Numerical Model KPHX GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 4/09/2004 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16 CLIMO X/N 84| 62 82| 59 83| 57 88| 62 92| 64 91| 63 87| 63 82 55 85 TMP 81| 64 79| 61 81| 58 87| 64 90| 66 89| 64 84| 65 80 DPT 40| 45 33| 32 21| 32 21| 31 26| 34 28| 35 28| 35 28 CLD OV| PC PC| CL CL| CL CL| CL CL| CL CL| CL CL| CL PC WND 10| 12 16| 16 9| 10 10| 9 10| 9 11| 10 11| 12 13 P12 16| 10 9| 9 1| 1 1| 1 2| 2 1| 2 3| 3 14 3 5 P24 | 19|10| 1| 2| 4| 3| 14 7 Q12 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 | Q24 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | T12 9| 11 11| 3 1| 1 0| 0 0| 1 4| 2 1| 3 1 T24 | 17 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 Warming up!

14. National Weather Service DicussionPhoenix, Arizona • FXUS65 KPSR 191752 • AFDPSR • AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-192245- • AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION • NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ • 430 AM MST TUE APR 6 2004 • SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA • FORECAST DISCUSSION • .SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM SATURDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER...BUT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR WESTERN ARIZONA BY THAT TIME. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY. AS FOR THIS SYSTEM TODAY...THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE RULE SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEAK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HOWEVER...AT LEAST INCREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. && .DISCUSSION... LIGHT DISSIPATING SHOWERS OR PERHAPS JUST VIRGA SHOWING UP OVER RIVERSIDE COUNTY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY AND NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY THIS MORNING. HAVE ADDED SOME SINGLE DIGIT POPS FOR THOSE AREAS ON THE GRIDS...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. EARLIER DURING THE …Continued

15. …Continued • NIGHT...THERE WERE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK TROUGH IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA...THAT IS CAUSING THE FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA PRESENTLY IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE ETA AND NGM MODELS DO SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR WEST TO INCLUDE THIS WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. AS OF NOW...ONLY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA AND NORTHWEST PINAL. MAY HAVE TO UPDATE TO INCLUDE AT LEAST ZONES 22 AND 27...BUT WILL WAIT FOR AWHILE. MEANWHILE...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BOTH THE 12Z ETA AND NGM ARE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...WITH THE NGM BEING FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN THE ETA. THERE ARE MORE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE EAST PORTION OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR WESTERN ARIZONA DURING THIS TIME...SO WILL LIMIT ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR EASTERN CWA FOR SATURDAY. LATEST ETA AND NGM MOS DO SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN WINDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND THESE WINDS MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED SOME ON THE GRIDS FOR THOSE PERIODS. MORE BENIGN WEATHER IS SLATED FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...THE LATEST EXTENDED GFS BRINGS IN A TROUGH THAT IS DEEPER AND STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE MID SHIFT HAS WISELY DECIDED NOT TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE EXTENDED EXCEPT TO ADD MORE CLOUDS...SINCE THIS IS ONLY FIRST RUN SHOWING THIS TROUGH. .PSR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. • && • $$

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