Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

1. Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and otherdecision-supporting systems D. Kraft

2. WG Integrative Modelling Models, software and tools supporting the utilisation and protection of the coastal and marine environment • Hydrodynamic models: current and flow • Tracing software: particles and individuals • Evaluation tools: multivariate and fuzzy • iDSS: Information and Decision Support Systems D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

3. Basic ideas: • We understand spatial planning on the coast and in sea as adecision-making process • To participate, someone needs information • iDSS are systems to manage and provide knowledge D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

4. Decision-making process: Decision-making is a cognitive process leading to the selection of a course of action from different options. It consists of the mental process of thinking involved with the process of judging the merits of options and selecting one of them for action. Every decision-making process produces a final choice. (wikipedia, 5.6.07) D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

5. Decision-making steps • Thinking: “process information” • Judging: “forming opinion” • Selecting: “carefully choose” D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

6. Thinking: “processing information“ Input: Information, facts, data Actions: Collecting data (e.g. measuring, modelling) Analysing this data (e.g. check quality) Characterising data (e.g. statistics) Homogenising data (e.g. synchronise) Integrating data (e.g. simplify, scenarios) Output: Maps, charts, indicators showing options D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

7. Dealing with uncertainty: “scenario analysis” • Uncertainty: “A state of having limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe ... future outcome...” • Scenario analysis: “A process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes.” • Consider: “Think carefully about (something),typically before making a decision.” (wikipedia, 12.11.07) D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

8. “Thinking”: Example CRC-Viewer Question:What kind of effects do changes in the catchment area have on water quality in the sea? Action: • Handpick scenarios Answer:The dominant effect is nitrification! Data: H. Behrendt, G. Schernewski et al. D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

9. Example CRC-Viewer D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

10. handpicking scenarios D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

11. “Thinking”: Example CRC-Viewer Question:What kind of effects do changes in the catchment area have on water quality in the sea? Action: • Handpick scenarios Answer:The dominant effect is nitrification! D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

12. Judging: “forming opinion” Input: Options, possible measures Actions: Finding the quality of options: • Evaluate, Rate, Monetize • What’s good or worthwhile • Dealing with uncertainty of data: Scenarios Output: Quality, value, or price as a criterion for selecting measures D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

13. “Judging”: Example ANEMOS Question:How to plan a wind park? Action: • Give a estimation of importance of interests Answer:Taking satisfaction of groups into account!” D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

14. Example ANEMOS D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

15. Example ANEMOS: estimation D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

16. “Judging”: Example ANEMOS Question:How to plan a wind park? Action: • Give a estimation of importance of interests Answer:Taking satisfaction of groups into account!” D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

17. Selecting: “carefully choose” Input: Criteria for measures Actions: Creating principles, model or standards Optimisations Cost-benefit-calculations Benchmarking Create methods of standardisation Output: Final choice D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

18. “Selecting”: Example ComCoast Question:Sustainable spatial planning in the coastal zone? Action: Consensus on • scenarios • spatial development • evaluation Answer: ...I can bring my opinion into the discussion... D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

19. Consensus on scenarios: • Scenario A: busyness as usual • Ongoing economic and social development • Scenario B: worst case • Disasters like storm surge and flooding • Scenario C: sustainable development • Sustainable spatial planning D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

20. Consensus on spatial development D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

21. Consensus on evaluation D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

22. “Selecting”: Example ComCoast Question:Sustainable spatial planning in the coastal zone? Action: Consensus on • scenarios • spatial development • evaluation Answer: ...I can bring my opinion into the discussion... D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

23. Steps to participation: providing information • Thinking: “process information” • Judging: “forming opinion” • Selecting: “choose” Scenarios: dealing with uncertainty iDSS: dealing with alternatives D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

24. Conclusions • DSS: can “think“ • DSS: can “judge“ • DSS can “select“ • iDSS can “inform” • But: iDSS can not discuss D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems