Case Study: Somalia Conflict Analysis

1. Case Study: Somalia Conflict Analysis Sara Chopp DePaul University School of Public Service

2. Conflict Analysis Stakeholder Analysis: Primary Actors, Secondary Actors, Third Parties and External Actors Root Causes: Parties’ Motivations and Underlying Fears History of Peacemaking Efforts: Issues, Scope, Stage & Phase of Conflict and Times of Peace, Changes & Attempts at Settlement Conflict Dynamics and Political Actors: Social and Political Drivers, Environmental and Institutional Drivers, Economic Drivers

3. Stakeholder Analysis Primary Actors, Secondary Actors, Third Parties and External Actors

4. Primary Actors: Militia Groups • Somali Democratic Front (SSDF), led by Abdullahi Yusuf • Somali Army • Somalia Reconciliation and Restoration Council (SRRC), led by Somali warlords • Al-Shabaab, led by Islamic radicals and identified as Somali al Qaeda • Islamic Courts Union (ICU) • Sufis ASWJ • Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS)

5. Primary Actors: Clan-based Liberation Movements • United Somali Congress (USC), led by Hawiye • Somali National Movement (SNM), led by Isaaq • Somali Patriotic Movement (SPM), led by Ogadeni • Somali Salvation Democratic Movement (SSDM), led by Majerten

6. Primary Actors: Nonviolent Political Oppositions • Somali Democratic Movement (SDM) • Somali Democratic Alliance (SDA) • Somali Manifesto Group (SMG)

7. Primary Actors: State Collapse • Somali National Alliance (SNA) • Dictator Siad Barre • Supreme Revolutionary Council (SRC), led by Siad Barre • Abgal clan • Habargidir clan • Isaaq clan • Ogaden clan • Hawiye clan • Digil clan • Mirifle clan

8. Primary Actors: Governance • Somaliland • Puntland • South-central Somalia • Transitional National Government (TNG) • Transitional Federal Government (TFG), led by President Salat Assan and Prime Minister Ali Khalif Gelayadh • Federal Government of Somalia (FGoS) • Islamic Courts Union (ICU), led by Sharif Sheikh Ahmed • Radicalized ICU factions

9. Secondary Actors: Neighboring Countries and International Actors Peace Support Mission to Somalia: Intergovernmental Authority on Development (AGD) and UN Security Council (UNSC) African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), supported by United Nations (UN) and European Union (EU) Primary Actors • Djibouti • Eritrea • Ethiopia • Kenya • Sudan • Uganda Secondary Actors • Malawi • Nigeria • Burundi • Tanzania • Ghana • Kenya

10. Secondary Actors: Neighboring Countries and International Actors Arms Supporters • Eritrea • Djibouti • Egypt • Ethiopia • Iran • Libya • Saudi Arabia • Syria Political Players • Ethiopia • Pakistan • Malaysia • African Union peacekeepers Supports UIC, ARS or Al-Shabaab • Egypt • Iran • Yemen

11. Third Parties: International Actors Peacebuilders • International Somalia Contact Group • United Nations Operation in Somalia I & II (UNOSOM I & II) • Unified Task Force (UNITAF) Aid Suppliers • United Nations • United Kingdom • The Arab League • Red Cross • Medicins sans Frontieres • CARE • CARITAS • OXFAM • Save the Children • +52 NGOs Resource Suppliers • Soviet Union • United States Communications • World Food Program • The Monitoring Group • International Maritime Organization

12. External Actors • Kenya • Harbored TFG • African Union • Supported TFG • Ethiopia • Military intervention against factions and UIC • Supported TFG • Meddled with Somalia’s stability • Entrepreneurial Business Community • Supports Islamic Institutions • Djibouti • Hosted peace conference in 2000 to form TNG • Al Qaeda • Failed to establish support • Islamic Institutions • Social welfare system • Judicial systems • Entrepreneurial Business Community • Supports Islamic Institutions • Eritrea • Partnered with UIC • Humanitarian organizations • Subjected to violence • AMISOM • Warfare against terrorist attacks • United Nations • Supported TFG • UNOSOM I • UNOSOM II • Battle of Mogdishu • United States • UNITAF • Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT) • UNOSOM II • Battle of Mogdishu • Manhunt for Aideed • Black Hawk Down • Assassinated al-Shabaab’s leader, Ayro

13. Root Causes Parties’ Motivations and Underlying Fears

14. Parties’ Motivations and Underlying Fears Effect • Conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia • Liberation Movements • Uprising against Barre • Barre retaliates against Majerteen • Resistance by opposition groups • Ethiopia supports oppositions • Clan disputes over power • Inequity, injustice & marginalization • Continued conflict between clans Cause • Europe gives Ogaden to Ethiopia • Oppression & Violence • Loss at Ogaden • Failure to overthrow Barre • Repression by state • Dispute with Ethiopia • Barre is overthrown • Shifting clan control & corruption • Resource scarcity

15. History of Peacemaking Efforts Issues, Scope, Stage & Phase of Conflict Times of Peace, Changes & Attempts at Settlement

16. Issues, Scope, Stage and Phase of Conflict • US Armed Forces responses to transitions in Somali conflict • Humanitarian assistance (Operation Provide Relief) • Implemented after failure of UNOSOM I • Airlifted food, water and medicine to Somalia • Lacked security • At risk of violence • Attacked at Magadishu harbor • Withdrew aid • Limited military intervention in combination with humanitarian assistance (Operation Restore Hope) • Implemented after attack on OPR • Aimed to improve security for relief efforts, restore order and rebuild institutions • Peace Enforcement (UNOSOM II) • Aimed to rebuild Somali nation while disarming the Somali clans • Restore security, political institutions and economic activity • Generated a sense of threat to Aideeds power • Aideeds supporters attacked and killed Pakinstani soldiers • US responded with manhunt for Aideed • Attacks against relief organizations resulted in the withdrawal of US troops by 1994

17. Times of Peace, Changes & Attempts at Settlement • Major Somalia Peace Initiatives • UN initiative • Failed to consider all key actors • Focused on warlords • Distorted power dynamics and fostered anarchy • European Commission initiative • Did not take social and relational contexts of conflict into consideration when nation-building • Arta peace process • Lacked support from other regional key actors • Eldoret/Mbagathi peace process • Ethiopia’s Invasion in 2006 • Resurges violence • Generates “the world’s worst humanitarian crisis” • AU responds with AMISOM peacekeeping mission • UN follows with peace conference in Djibouti in 2008 • Aimed to democratize and securitize Somalia through reform, reconciliation and international engagement • Aimed to gain regional and global support • National unity government established in 2009

18. Conflict Dynamics and Political Actors Social and Political Drivers Environmental and Institutional Drivers Economic Drivers Issues, Scope, Stage & Phase of Conflict

19. Social, Political and Institutional Drivers • Clan-Based Governance in Somaliland and Puntland • Encourages participation, cooperation and limits conflict • Promotes authoritarian rule and corruption • Institutions are weak and governance is poor • Discriminates against minority groups • Maintains cross-region conflict • Beel system is ineffective and inefficient • Traditional and religious leaders produce government functions • Increases security, peace and justice • Lack of Governance and Anarchy in South-central Somalia • Violent disputes between clan-based fiefdoms • Generates a culture of war • Militarizes Somalia • Clan-based divides over control • Sharia courts serve as justice system • Clan Relationships: Negative Outcomes • Manipulated by clan leaders for political and economic interests • Cause inter- and cross-clan disputes • Creates divides between clans and subclans • Fragments and mobilizes groups to engage in conflict • Clan Relationships: Positive Outcomes • Business and CSO partnerships • Provides foundation for peacebuiliding and statebuilding

20. Environmental and Economic Drivers • Poorest country in the world • Heavy reliance on foreign aid • Relatively high private sector activity that benefits all regions • Provides employment opportunities, family sustainability and business development • Promotes cross-clan collaboration • Remittances • Support economic activity, such as spending and investment • Supports conflict by supplying resources to warlords • Not sustainable income for dependent population • Cultural shift in support for conflict, preferences are for productive activities that yield profits • Weapon availability • Results from lack of border control and security • Distribution and consumption of Khat • Supplies high revenues for warlords and decreases productivity and well-being of users • Levies on commercial arteries • Creates conflict for control of these revenue sources • Inhibits cross-border trading

21. Environmental and Economic Drivers • Economy is dominantly pastoral • Heavily dependent on livestock exports • Livestock bans in Saudi Arabia and Gulf States • Devastating loss on major exporting industry, which is generating migration from rural to urban areas and competition over other economic opportunities • Oversupply of livestock and undersupply of grazing land causes conflict and strain on resources, which is exacerbated by drought and environment deregulation. • Limited water supply inhibits agricultural production and fuels conflict • South-central Somalia is resource rich in comparison to Somaliland and Puntland • Creates cross-region conflict • Maintains the uneven distribution of resources

22. Conflict Resolutions Donor Efforts: Civic Engagement around Governance Initiatives Priority Areas: Peacebuilding and Civic Engagement

23. Donor Efforts Civic Engagement around Governance Initiatives

24. Civic Engagement Around Governance Initiatives • UN Joint Programme on Local Governance and Decentralized Service Delivery for Somalia • Designed and piloted by United Nations Capital Development Fund • Collaboratively implemented by UNCDF, UNDP, ILO, UN-HABITAT, UNICEF • Supported by Denmark, DFID, Norway and Sida • Uses a holistic and decentralized approach while focusing on civic engagement and public service delivery initiatives • Works to develop local governance, infrastructure and services • Goals: peacebuilding, increasing security, creating good governance, increasing social capital and improving service delivery in all Somali regions • Facilitates the creation of regulatory framework, inclusive regional and district administrations and the prioritization of equitable service delivery • Aims to establish stability and security, effectiveness, professionalism, responsiveness, fair representation, inclusive participation, transparency and accountability of local institutions while also promoting these organizations in order to generate a sense of legitimacy and trust amongst citizens • The emphasis is on communal engagement, participatory decision-making, and cross-sector partnerships in order to ensure fair distribution and access to public goods and services in order to sustain local development initiatives.

25. Civic Engagement Around Governance Initiatives • The outcomes of this program include initiating the establishment of local government policy, legal and regulatory framework, establishing and legitimizing operational district councils, enhancing council capacity to govern and manage service delivery, increasing revenue generation, securing annual funding for district councils service delivery projects, increasing the capacity of communities and private sector service providers for service delivery, improving civic education and engagement in target communities, prioritizing budgets with respect to community needs and interests, establishing community monitoring of development projects, and instituting annual public reporting meetings in target districts (UNCDF, 2012).

26. Priority Areas Peace Building and Civic Engagement

27. Peacebuilding and Civic Engagement • 2013 Somalia Compact • Strategic plan for recovery and establishing peace • Inclusively and collaboratively designed by the Federal Republic of Somalia, the Somali Federal Parliament, Somali civil society, and the international community, which includes the UN and EU. • Focuses on the establishment of sustainable peace • Development of infrastructure and transparent, accountable and inclusive leadership, statebuilding, trust and respect building, civic engagement and positive international relations. • Focuses on the establishment of sustainable peace • Development of infrastructure and transparent, accountable and inclusive leadership, statebuilding, trust and respect building, civic engagement and positive international relations. • Strategies aim to achieve equitable and reliable justice systems, institutions, administrations and federal governance • Overarching goal: improve quality of life for the Somali people by fostering development, mobilization and empowerment through the establishment of inclusive, participatory decision-making processes and a stable economic foundations. • Peace and statebuilding goals: inclusive politics, security, justice, economic foundations, revenue and services • Trust building, reconciliation and mediation • Constitution adoption, electoral framework, clearly defining administrative roles and responsibilities • Promotes effective and efficient fiscal and resource management • Establish media outlets, promote gender equality, increase capacity, produce results, protect human rights, improve external relations and empower civil society to ensure effectiveness, transparency and accountability

28. Peacebuilding and Civic Engagement • Peacekeeping strategies: unification, accountability, stability, security and sustainability • Reduce extremism and develop cohesive federal institutions with respect to international humanitarian law • Establish an independent, equitable and trustworthy justice system based on a accountability • Create legal and regulatory frameworks with respect to international standards • Develop infrastructure and economic foundations that generate inclusive, accessible and equitable employment • Facilitates trust building and social cohesion • Generates revenues for equitable and sustainable public service delivery • Increases access to education • Somali Compact Implementation • Partnership • Revenue generation • Foreign aid • Constructive, positive relationships between Somali civil society and the international community • Achieve stability and security • Ensures successful development, facilitation of humanitarian assistance, peacebuilding and statebuilding

29. Peacebuilding and Civic Engagement • Producing and monitoring results • National Planning Commission (NPC) • Risk management, strategic planning, prioritizing and monitoring, and decision-making in relation to development and financing • High Level Aid Coordination Forum (HLACF) • Platform for assessing progress in terms of aid effectiveness in light of priorities and budgets • Inter-sectoral Forum • Information sharing between key sectoral leaders • Sector Coordination Forums • Facilitate development partner engagement through joint assessments, monitoring and reporting • Appeases donor efforts • Identifies correlation between efforts and outcomes to ensure effectiveness and success • Demonstrates aid effectiveness • Promotes mutual accountability of and participation from all key actors • Encourages a transition to Somali ownership and leadership • Ensures strategies are applicable within the context of Somalia and the Somali people are fairly represented

30. Conclusion Mechanisms for Conflict Resolution

31. Mechanisms for Conflict Resolution • Focus on regional comparative advantage • Create clan-based districts • Establish land and property rights • Implement environmental regulations • Practice sustainable resource management • Pressure Ethiopia to stop dam building • Develop pastoral production • Create infrastructure for water-sharing and developing arable and grazing land • Establish sustainable farming and fishing practices, as well as control standards for livestock • Clearly define roles of production with respect to land and property rights • Establish federal control for mining oil and natural gas and distributing the export revenues across the regions

32. Mechanisms for Conflict Resolution • Use inclusive, participatory approaches throughout the peace process • Consider roles of all sectors, as well as those of key players • Create a comprehensive clan identification system • Resolve sub-clan and cross-clan disputes through trust building and collaboration • Establish and monitor regional and international borders • Establish equitable, inclusive and representative justice systems in order to generate a sense of fairness and trust • Implement education, skills development and vocational training programs that fairly serve all clans • It is important for Puntland’s administration to focus on providing public services, fostering economic growth, promoting inclusiveness and reducing corruption through transparency and accountability in order to maintain a stable environment • To ensure stability and sustainability, Somaliland needs to focus on solidifying and strengthening its democratic institutions, promoting inclusiveness in the decision-making process, fostering economic growth for generating revenues, and conducting fair elections that produce a transparent and accountable administration