Is Kenneth Waltz Correct, Should Iran get the BOMB ?

1. Is Kenneth Waltz Correct, Should Iran get the BOMB ? John A. Hughes

2. Neorealist LENS • Branch of Realism • Focus on power politics proposed by classical theorists ( Hobbes, Machiavelli, Thucydides ) • Rise of Realist thinkers, E. H Carr & Hans. J Morgenthau • E.H Carr’s The Twenty Year’s Crisis (1939): struggle for power, “haves & have-nots” • Hans J. Morgenthau’s Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace (1948): Human nature, statecraft, national security. • Theory of International Politics(1979), Kenneth N. Waltz • Does not focus on human nature, statecraft or ethics in foreign policy that Morgenthau proposed • Focuses on structures • Domestic structures • “Relative Capabilities” (a states power)

3. Neorealist Balance of Power THEORY • Peace and be achieved through Balance of Power • If states build equal military and economic abilities • Alliances • Occurred during the Cold War ( bipolar system) • Post Soviet Union ( multipolar system) • Advocates for nuclear proliferation

4. Assessments & critiques • Waltz is Selective in his History • Bipolar systems do not guarantee peace • World War I (arms races and alliances) • Waltz argues World War I was caused by “chain-ganging” and codependent alliances • Not a satisfactory response • Cold War was not a peaceful time • Proxy wars • Waltz ignores this

5. Iran’s Nuclear Program: Current Controversy • Does Iran have a nuclear weapon ? • Iran: No, its for peaceful purposes to make energy and be used for medical research. • United States & West, Yes: Fearful they are working towards making a nuclear weapon. Cites intelligence reports and lack of IAEA cooperation and to suspend uranium enrichment. Also peaceful programs can be dual-purpose • Why does Iran not Cooperate with the IAEA ? • Fell they do, just the IAEA ask for too much that is does not ask from other states, especially Israel • Other powers such as the US have known nuclear weapons and are not regulated or investigated by the IAEA • What’s Wrong with Iran Getting a Nuclear Weapon? • Gives them influence • Could be used against Israel • Could be used against the West.

6. Early Nuclear Program (1957-1974) • President Eisenhower “Atoms for Peace Program • 1968 (signed 1970) Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) & 1974 signed Safeguards Agreement with International Atomic Energy Agency • 1970s, France & Germany also provided Iran assistance • 1974 India had a successful nuclear test, US national intelligence agency feared Iran developing a weapon • France pulled back on a deal two build two reactors in Darkhovin, and Germany withdrew from building a pair or reactors in Bushehr • 1979 Iranian Revolution West reversed support • 1979Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini canceled program, deemed it “anti-Islamic”

7. Return to Nuclear • 1982 began to rebuild nuclear program • 1985 CIA reported that Iran was interested in building a nuclear weapon, predicted it would take at least a decade • 1989 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei comes to power. • 1995, CIA report predicted by 2000 Iran could produce a weapon with foreign assistance • Worked with Russia, N. Korea, China and Pakistan to help restart Bushehr and Darkhovin projects

8. Start of Controversy • August 2002 Alireza Jafarzadeh of the National Council of Resistance of Iran declared two nuclear sites under construction • Natanz (underground) • Arak (heavy water) • U.S intelligence agencies were aware of these facilities but reports remain classified • Israeli intelligence was also aware • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) not aware of this • Launched investigation fall 2002. • Did Iran violate the NPT? • No, when Iran signed countries were not required to notify IAEA until introducing nuclear material into facilities • IAEA changed agreement in 1992, requiring notification during the planning stage. • Iran did not sign the 1992 agreement until February 2003.

9. International concern • Fall 2003 EU-3 (France, Germany, United Kingdom) • Wanted to take diplomatic route to answer questions about Iran’s nuclear program: Produced Tehran Declaration and Paris Agreement • IAEA Reports 2003-2005 • Reported Iran failed to fully report all nuclear acquisitions and activities • Found no evidence of nuclear program, but was unable to conclude if it was peaceful • Election of President Ahmadinejad 2005-2006 • 2006 P5+1 China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom & United States • July & December 2006 UN Security Council demanded Iran suspend its uranium enrichment, later that year imposed sanctions • Cut off nuclear cooperation • Froze assets of those tied to Iran’s nuclear program • Resolutions from 2007-2009 expanded/ reaffirmed these sanctions. • Imposed harsher sanctions in 2010

10. IAEA Reports • 2007-2008 • Iran was cooperative • Could not prove or disprove nuclear weapon • US National Intelligence could not find evidence of a nuclear program • 2009 • Iran became less cooperative with IAEA requests • Increasingly started to enrich uranium • 2010 • Iran enriching enough uranium to make two nuclear weapons

11. IAEA REPORTS • November 2011 IAEA Report • Inspectors have credible evidence that Iran had been conducting experiments aimed at creating a nuclear bomb up until 2003 • Identified “large explosive containment vessel” • IAEA passes resolution expressing “deep and increasing concern” over the military possibility of Iran’s nuclear program • Iran denies this • 2012 • February, announced Iran’s refusal to allow access to the Parchin plant, which was rumored to have high-explosive research program • May, announced Iran was continuing to enrich uranium at a higher rate • August, highlighted Iran’s continued increased enrichment

12. Why IRAN SHOULD GET THE BOMB: a Neorealist Point of view • Kenneth Waltz, “Why Iran Should Get the Bomb:, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2010 • Power Begs to be Balanced • Israel is the monopoly in nuclear power in the region • Israel bombed Iraq in 1981, and Syria in 2007 to prevent them from acquiring a nuclear weapon, could do the same to Iran • Since Israel acquired a nuclear weapon, the region has been in conflict • Unfounded Fears • Iran is rational • Countries are less hostile once they get nuclear capabilities (China, India and Pakistan)

13. Balance of Power does not apply • The region would become less stable • Questionable if Iran would not attack Israel • Not all nuclear programs promise peace (N. Korea) • Would Iran give a weapon to a terrorist group? • Iran funds terrorist groups to spite the west and expand power • Could be used as a threat • Fails to evaluate Iranian-Syrian relations. • Syria would want the technology • Would Iran provide them the weapon ?

14. Balance of Power does not apply • Waltz finds Iran to be rational • This is correct, even Israeli intelligence agree to this • Rational also curtail to ensure survival

15. Bibliography • Bruno, Greg. Irans Nuclear Program. March 10, 2010. http://www.cfr.org/iran/irans-nuclear-program/p16811?breadcrumb=%2Fpublication%2Fpublication_list%3Ftype%3Dinterview%26referer%3Dwww.clickfind.com.au%26page%3D9 (accessed October 18, 2012). • Conybear, John A.C, and Todd Sandler. "The Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance: A Collective Goods Approach ." American Political Science Review 84, no. 4 (1990): 1197-1206. • Davenport, Kelsey. "History of Official Proposals on the Iranian Nuclear Issue." Arms Control Association . August 2012. http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Iran_Nuclear_Proposals (accessed October 30, 2012). • Department of National Intelligence . "Special National Intelligence Estimate: Prospects of Further Profliferation of Nuclear Weapons ." George Washington University . April 1974 , 1974. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB240/snie.pdf (accessed October 21, 20012). • Ferguson, Niall. The Pity of War Basic Books,. New York , NY : Basic Books , 2000. • IAEA . "Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran ." IAEA . November 26, 2003.

16. Bibilography • http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2003/gov2003-75.pdf (accessed October 29, 2012). • —. "Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran ." IAEA . September 24, 2005. http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2005/gov2005-77.pdf (accessed October 29 , 2012). • —. "Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran." IAEA . November 15, 2004. http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2004/gov2004-83.pdf (accessed October 29, 2012). • —. "Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran." IAEA. February 4, 2006. http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2006/gov2006-14.pdf (accessed October 29, 2012). • IAEA. "Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran." International Atomic Energy Agency . June 19, 2003. http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2003/gov2003-40.pdf (accessed October 23, 2012). • —. "THE TEXT OF THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN IRAN AND THE AGENCY FOR THE APPLICATION OF SAFEGUARDS IN CONNECTION WITH THE TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATIO OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS." International Atomic Energy Agency . December 13, 1974. • http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/Others/infcirc214.pdf (accessed October 18, 2012). • —. "TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS." International Atomic Energy Agency. April 22, 1970. http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/Others/infcirc140.pdf (accessed October 18, 2012).

17. Bibliography • Jackson, Robert, and George Sorensen. Introduction to Internaitonal Relations: Theories & Approaches. Vol. 4th. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010. • Kerr, Paul K. "Iran’s Nuclear Program: Status." Congressional Research Service . October 17, 2012. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL34544.pdf (accessed October 29, 2012). • Lambert, Nicholas A. "British Naval Policy, 1913-1914: Financial Limitation and Strategic Revolution"." The Journal of Modern History 67, no. 3 (1995). • Morgenthau, Hans J. Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. Vol. 5. New York, NY : Alferd E. Knopf , 1978 [1948]. • United Nations Security Council . "SECURITY COUNCIL DEMANDS IRAN SUSPEND URANIUM ENRICHMENT BY 31 AUGUST, OR FACE POSSIBLE ECONOMIC, DIPLOMATIC SANCTIONS ." United Nations . July 31, 2006. http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8792.doc.htm (accessed October 31 , 2012). • —. "SECURITY COUNCIL IMPOSES SANCTIONS ON IRAN FOR FAILURE TO HALT URANIUM ENRICHMENT, UNANIMOUSLY ADOPTING RESOLUTION 1737 (2006." United Nations . December 2006, 2006. http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8928.doc.htm (accessed October 31 , 2012). • —. "SECURITY COUNCIL REAFFIRMS EARLIER RESOLUTIONS ON IRAN’S URANIUM ENRICHMENT, CALLS ON COUNTRY TO COMPLY WITH OBLIGATIONS ‘FULLY AND WITHOUT DELAY’ Resolution 1835 (2008) Adopted Unanimously." United Nations . September 27, 2008. http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2007/sc8980.doc.htm (accessed October 31 , 2012). • —. "SECURITY COUNCIL TOUGHENS SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN, ADDS ARMS EMBARGO, WITH UNANIMOUS ADOPTION OF RESOLUTION 1747 (2007) Further Steps Promised if No Compliance Reported by IAEA in 60 days; Iran’s Foreign Minister Says Pressure, Intimidation Will Not Change Poli." United Nations . March 24, 2007. http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2007/sc8980.doc.htm (accessed October 30, 2012). • United Nations Security Council. "SECURITY COUNCIL IMPOSES ADDITIONAL SANCTIONS ON IRAN, VOTING 12 IN FAVOUR TO 2 AGAINST, WITH 1ABSTENTION." United Nations. June 9, 2010. http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2010/sc9948.doc.htm (accessed October 30, 2012). • Waltz, Kenneth. "Globalization and Governance ." PS Political Science and Politics 32, no. 4 (1999): 693-700. • —. "The Emergining Structure of Internaitonal Politics." International Security , Autumn 1993: 44-79. • Waltz, Kenneth. "Realism After the Cold War." International Security 25, no. 1 (2000): 5-41. • —. Theory of International Politics. 1st Ediiton . New York, NY : McGraw HIll , 1979. • —. Why Iran Should Get the Bomb. July/August 2012. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137731/kenneth-n-waltz/why-iran-should-get-the-bomb.