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The post-crises world or, the new normal

The post-crises world or, the new normal. presentation to Collision Repair Association 2013 Conference Dr Ganesh Nana Chief Economist Business and Economic Research Ltd 19 April 2013. old. The new normal. which two economies had a 60% share of the world economy 2000 years ago?

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The post-crises world or, the new normal

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  1. The post-crises worldor, the new normal presentation to Collision Repair Association 2013 Conference Dr Ganesh Nana Chief Economist Business and Economic Research Ltd 19 April 2013

  2. old The new normal • which two economies had a 60% share of the world economy 2000 years ago? • which two economies still had a half share in the world economy in 1820?

  3. The debt crisis in a nutshellthe gaps between earning and spendingNB: its about nations, not governments

  4. Austerity is underway– but cost is high

  5. At least US heading in right direction

  6. As global economic engine splutters

  7. But our neighbours are good mates

  8. Business environment remains tough

  9. As banks restore their reserves

  10. So business investment remains subdued

  11. At least house building recovery is underway

  12. while consumers remain cautious

  13. ... but, are still spending

  14. Motor - challenges

  15. Motor - challenges • legislative • safety (older vehicles?) • environmental standards • WOF changes • household income pressures • roading investment pressures • public transport options

  16. Business size in motor industry

  17. With a few good stories

  18. Another promising story

  19. … and another …

  20. Next to an average story …

  21. Or, a not so good story

  22. But, our houses are worth more

  23. And so are our Kiwi dollars!

  24. So export sector struggles

  25. As our Achilles Heel imposes more pain Progress in rebalancing NZ economy NZ debt in Sep 2008 = $149.9bn NZ debt in Sep 2012 = $148.8bn

  26. The hard yards ahead … “Looking beyond our present circumstances, our future depends on our ability to export.” Budget Speech, June 1978

  27. Economics is … liquidity swap rates house prices interest rates inflation leverage debt hedge funds ratings

  28. wealth creation resource export income development investment spending A lesson in rocket scienceor Economics 101

  29. Challenges in the ‘new’ normal making new ‘friends’ or ‘relationships’ • climate change • energy (& related raw materials) • water • food • skilled labour

  30. So, (when/how) will it end?

  31. NZ 2002 population man drought

  32. NZ 2012 population but the next 25 yrs ???

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