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Israel and the Palestinians: Challenges and Opportunities

Israel and the Palestinians: Challenges and Opportunities. Teleconference March 2009. Israel’s Palestinian Dilemmas. IL Leaves: Security Threat. IL Stays: Political Threat. Militarized PL State. Demographic Burden. Foreign forces using PL. Erosion of 2SS. Terrorism and Rocket fire.

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Israel and the Palestinians: Challenges and Opportunities

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  1. Israel and the Palestinians: Challenges and Opportunities Teleconference March 2009

  2. Israel’s Palestinian Dilemmas IL Leaves: Security Threat IL Stays: Political Threat Militarized PL State Demographic Burden Foreign forces using PL Erosion of 2SS Terrorism and Rocket fire Logic of Implosion Logic: Stay Logic: Leave

  3. War against Hamas:Was Operation Cast Lead a Corrective Experience? Hamas Infrastructure Destroyed Hamas Leadership Weakened Hundreds of Terrorists Killed January 2009 Erosion of Quartet 3 Demands Continuing Rocket Fire Gilad Shalit in Captivity Int’l Pressure to Open Crossings March 2009 Why cant Israel Win?

  4. The Dilemmas Hamas poses to Israel No moderate alternative Toppling Hamas Fear of renewed IL responsibility Weakens Palestinian Address Undermines Abbas’ position Hudna with Hamas Erodes int’l boycott on Hamas Rockets on Tel Aviv later? No Organizing Idea vs. Hamas 4

  5. Political Process:Permanent Status or Statebuilding? Statebuilding Negotiations over PSA (Package Approach) Strengthen PL Address ‘All or Nothing’ Dynamic First State, then PSA First PSA, then State Moment of Truth Dangerous:Statebuilding Essential

  6. Structural Obstacles to PSA Palestinian Constitutional Crisis Israeli Institutional Weakness No ZOPA Permanent Status Agreement PSA currently Unlikely

  7. Statebuilding Strengthening the moderate factions Gestures Institutions and Capacity Building Strengthening PA institutions and capacities within existing agreements Upgrading the PA: Statebuilding beyond existing agreements Upgrading the PA

  8. Upgrading the PA Sovereign State Current PA Embassies UN / WTO Membership Customs Palestinian Currency Sept 2000 Lines Strengthening PA Forces Area B Territory Security Economic Political

  9. The Catch 22 of a PL Unity Govt. Unity Government No Agreement Yes Address Ramallah-Based Government Yes Agreement No Address

  10. Consequences of FailureThe Erosion / Collapse of the Two State Solution Collapse of PA IL blamed in Int’l Community Return to ‘Resistance’ Towards Pariah Status Palestinian Inversion to 2SS Int’l Inversion to 2SS

  11. What Could break the Ice? Imposing the “Clinton Ideas” “Economic Peace” + Political Component NATANZ for NATAN (Aluf Benn)

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